* Weekly RSI about to close under 30, first time since 2015 bottom.
* Remarkable bullish divergence.
* Price sitting on top of weekly MM200, failing to close under it within the last 2 days.
* Falling wedge.
* Chance of a ( rather ugly ) Morning Star sitting upon MM200 -IF- today ( Dec. 16th) close will be over about 3250$.
Scenario is suitable for a reversal, over about 3000$.
What's every lacking so far is VOLUME. That's the key.
Watch out, keep an eye on it.
* Remarkable bullish divergence.
* Price sitting on top of weekly MM200, failing to close under it within the last 2 days.
* Falling wedge.
* Chance of a ( rather ugly ) Morning Star sitting upon MM200 -IF- today ( Dec. 16th) close will be over about 3250$.
Scenario is suitable for a reversal, over about 3000$.
What's every lacking so far is VOLUME. That's the key.
Watch out, keep an eye on it.
Comment:
"every lacking" => "severely lacking"
Comment:
Watching.
No volume, no prize.
Watching.
No volume, no prize.
Comment:
In the meantime, Shorts at BitFinex:
Comment:
Williams, God Mode on Weekly.
Let's have some patience.
Let's have some patience.
Comment:
Personally i think it's either a final and quick push down or straight up from here ( 3000$ ). We may have some hints within 24/48H.
Comment:
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Comment:
Tom Hall posted a quite similar view a few hours ago
Definetely worth reading.
Thank you, Tom.
Definetely worth reading.
Thank you, Tom.
Comment:
Breakout attempt ongoing.
Still much fragile, no *volume confirmation*.
Careful here.
Still much fragile, no *volume confirmation*.
Careful here.
Comment:
Imho this breakout is taking too long.
Lacking volume.
Plan B woudl be an ascending triangle.
Otherwise down.
Volume, volume, volume please ...
Let's see.
Lacking volume.
Plan B woudl be an ascending triangle.
Otherwise down.
Volume, volume, volume please ...
Let's see.
Comment:
The overall picture:
tinyurl.com/ycx6ukk9
Breakout of falling wedge as well as descending channel ( yellow area ) needed.
Unless volume is coming soon current slightly bullish momentum may disappear.
Under 3200$ bears may regain control.
tinyurl.com/ycx6ukk9
Breakout of falling wedge as well as descending channel ( yellow area ) needed.
Unless volume is coming soon current slightly bullish momentum may disappear.
Under 3200$ bears may regain control.
Comment:
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By the way, happy birthday ATH! ;)
December 17, 2017
EXACTLY one year ago.
December 17, 2017
EXACTLY one year ago.
Comment:
Now we need shorts to go down.
We're looking for a bear trap, not a bull trap.
We're looking for a bear trap, not a bull trap.
Comment:
Shorts, as of today.
Comment:
Awaiting pennant confirmation or negation.
Comment:
No pennant, yet a flag still possible.
Over 3400$ still fine for bulls ( FIB 0.382 ).
Look into comments section below.
Over 3400$ still fine for bulls ( FIB 0.382 ).
Look into comments section below.
Comment:
Either breakout or possible invalidation, within 2 hours.
Comment:
Breakout.
Comment:
It wasn't able to pierce the high, no volume.
It may try once again, eventually.
Anyway, use some caution under 3420-3440$, that level would confirm a short term double top.
It may try once again, eventually.
Anyway, use some caution under 3420-3440$, that level would confirm a short term double top.
Comment:
Not looking good for now ...
No break-up = problem arising.
Remember to lock in profits.
Let's see.
No break-up = problem arising.
Remember to lock in profits.
Let's see.
Comment:
Break-up.
FIB 0.382 was broken, hence this may be techically called a "bear trap", as in hyphotesis.
It was a nice ride.
FIB 0.382 was broken, hence this may be techically called a "bear trap", as in hyphotesis.
It was a nice ride.
Comment:
It is possible that we have a local high.
Comment:
Price about to move, see triangle between short term support and resistance.
Comment:
Bang. Resistance and previous local high gone.
With volume.
With volume.
Comment:
We may have a diamond top here.
Hard to say, but looks like that.
Careful.
Hard to say, but looks like that.
Careful.
Comment:
It was a diamond top indeed ...
Price alresy close to its target, around the 3700$ mark.
Messy for bulls.
They should try to keep FIB 0.5 on close, that's the key level now.
Price alresy close to its target, around the 3700$ mark.
Messy for bulls.
They should try to keep FIB 0.5 on close, that's the key level now.
Comment:
Perfect FIB 0.5 test, so far.
Mind the fact that 3770$ is also FIB 0.382 retracement of the current leg up from the low 3000$. So it's a critical level form bulls.
For now i fear a simple pullback towards that minor resistance OR previous support ( red line ) though.
Let's see tomorrow.
Mind the fact that 3770$ is also FIB 0.382 retracement of the current leg up from the low 3000$. So it's a critical level form bulls.
For now i fear a simple pullback towards that minor resistance OR previous support ( red line ) though.
Let's see tomorrow.
Comment:
Looking ugly.
Either bulls play a hail mary breaking up the green triangle and doing a "bart" move or the bear will take price down again.
That triangle looks like a bearish pennant.
The blue support is the neckline for a possible H&S and lateral line for a Chuvasov Fork. So be much cautious now, don't be Long under the blue line.
Either bulls play a hail mary breaking up the green triangle and doing a "bart" move or the bear will take price down again.
That triangle looks like a bearish pennant.
The blue support is the neckline for a possible H&S and lateral line for a Chuvasov Fork. So be much cautious now, don't be Long under the blue line.
Comment:
Breakout and at resistance already.
Careful.
Careful.
Comment:
It's quite tough, but bulls have a chance to fight back.
They should paint an ascending triangle and break up of it.
They should paint an ascending triangle and break up of it.
Comment:
Broke up the ascending triangle, now it tries to paint an ascending channel.
Blue support and GOB 0.618 are the key levels.
Blue support and GOB 0.618 are the key levels.
Comment:
Comment:
One more leg down likely.
Still it's safer to stay out, in at breakout.
Still it's safer to stay out, in at breakout.
Comment:
Some considerations.
Comment:
Likely to rebound now.
Comment:
-IF- falling wedge gets confirmation bulls will probably gain some traction.
IH&S hypothesis. Tsrget 3970 to 4200 for the wedge, about neckline.
At the moment falling wedge still in progress, so no hurry.
Moreover FIB retracement 0.618 should hold or the above scenario will be unlikely.
IH&S hypothesis. Tsrget 3970 to 4200 for the wedge, about neckline.
At the moment falling wedge still in progress, so no hurry.
Moreover FIB retracement 0.618 should hold or the above scenario will be unlikely.
Comment:
As expected ;)
Comment:
It needs another leg up to close on the IH&S neckline.
Let's see ...
Let's see ...
Comment:
A triangle within a possible falling wedge.
Bulls may try a breakout, but volume needed or ot will fake out.
Bulls may try a breakout, but volume needed or ot will fake out.
Comment:
Still lacking volume.
Anyway, there is a big triangle closing on RSI.
It spans many months, breakout direction will have noticeable effect on trend.
Anyway, there is a big triangle closing on RSI.
It spans many months, breakout direction will have noticeable effect on trend.
Comment:
Bulls are trying.
Yet i don't like it so far.
Choppy and on low volume.
If you're willing to ride this then fasten your seatbelts and tighten your stop, as it may break any moment now.
Yet i don't like it so far.
Choppy and on low volume.
If you're willing to ride this then fasten your seatbelts and tighten your stop, as it may break any moment now.
Comment:
2 possible supports, 2 possible short term resistances.
Price is within either an ascending triangle or a regular triangle.
Volume is low and still decreasing.
Bulls should hope Main support holds in order to further play their cards ( inverted H&S or Cup & Handle ), otherwise it would be bears turn again.
My suggestion is to stay out and enter only on a breakout with volume confirmation.
Price is within either an ascending triangle or a regular triangle.
Volume is low and still decreasing.
Bulls should hope Main support holds in order to further play their cards ( inverted H&S or Cup & Handle ), otherwise it would be bears turn again.
My suggestion is to stay out and enter only on a breakout with volume confirmation.
Comment:
Small rising wedge
Comment:
So the wedge broke down as expected and a further test of the supports area is happening.
This test is important for the bulls.
They should hope 3730-3770$ area holds, in order to later attack 3800$ area again.
Be cautious.
Look at volume for confirmation.
This test is important for the bulls.
They should hope 3730-3770$ area holds, in order to later attack 3800$ area again.
Be cautious.
Look at volume for confirmation.
Comment:
So 3730-3770$ did hold so far.
While main support was broken, the alternative one did reject the bears.
Then bulls were able to recover 3800$.
Now they should keep over 3800$, to try attacking the (red) resistances area.
Interesting.
While main support was broken, the alternative one did reject the bears.
Then bulls were able to recover 3800$.
Now they should keep over 3800$, to try attacking the (red) resistances area.
Interesting.
Comment:
No surprise, chart was confirmed.
Working support was the "alternative one".
Both resistances still valid, price should deal with the inner symmetrical triangle before, then with the ascending one for bullish case.
As i wrote, all confirmed so far and very little bias in the picture.
Still the bulls are in charge, as short term trend was bullish and not broken yet.
Better *waiting* for a breakout confirmed by *volume*.
It's likely to happen within 48hrs, worst case 3 days.
Avoid taking unneeeded risks
Working support was the "alternative one".
Both resistances still valid, price should deal with the inner symmetrical triangle before, then with the ascending one for bullish case.
As i wrote, all confirmed so far and very little bias in the picture.
Still the bulls are in charge, as short term trend was bullish and not broken yet.
Better *waiting* for a breakout confirmed by *volume*.
It's likely to happen within 48hrs, worst case 3 days.
Avoid taking unneeeded risks
Comment:
Mind the fact Bitfinex will be down a few hours on MONDAY for planned maintenance.
twitter.com/bitfinex.../1078954166184226816
If you're exposed on the market remember to set STOP accordingly.
A downtime is usually a speculation opportunity for strong hands.
twitter.com/bitfinex.../1078954166184226816
If you're exposed on the market remember to set STOP accordingly.
A downtime is usually a speculation opportunity for strong hands.
Comment:
It's clearly a bullish pennant / flag.
Bulls should find the volume and break up within 4-6 hours or they'll lose a major opportunity here.
Time matters.
Bulls should find the volume and break up within 4-6 hours or they'll lose a major opportunity here.
Time matters.
Comment:
Nice breakout despite failing that flag.
Gotta love triangles ;)
Already at the descending resistance marked in previous chart.
Let it consolidate.
Good night.
Gotta love triangles ;)
Already at the descending resistance marked in previous chart.
Let it consolidate.
Good night.
Comment:
Bulls did a good job, so far, yet they need to move at very least 100$ higher in order to try playing an inverted H&S.
Currently price sits at the top of the ongoing descending channel and it's an uncomfortable position. Bulls need to do another leg up. Soon.
Let's see.
Currently price sits at the top of the ongoing descending channel and it's an uncomfortable position. Bulls need to do another leg up. Soon.
Let's see.
Comment:
A flag ? Maybe.
Comment:
Price formed a bigger flag.
There's a chance it will breakout within few hours as long as "interim" support holds.
If "interim" support breaks AND price loses the key 3950-3960$ area caution is needed.
There's a chance it will breakout within few hours as long as "interim" support holds.
If "interim" support breaks AND price loses the key 3950-3960$ area caution is needed.
Comment:
At resistance after flag breakout.
Yet it needs much more volume and soon.
It should avoid at all cost a shooting star there
Yet it needs much more volume and soon.
It should avoid at all cost a shooting star there
Comment:
No hooting star, but still bad.
I fear a rising wedge there.
I fear a rising wedge there.