There are two majority forecasts for BTC right now, Bullish and Bearish. The market could also be neutral, but I don't think so. The big question, as always, is which way is it going to go. I have been watching and plotting for two possible situations:
1) Bearish market: Under this assumption, the overall trend is bearish and the current move down is an impulse, meaning the previous up leg was a retracement only. This is a perfectly valid scenario, and targets work out to argue this is what is happening.
2) Bullish market: Under this assumption the current down move is simply a retracement from the previous up leg. Again, this can be argued as the targets for this also work out. Arg!
Only the market can tell us which is correct, but by then it will be too late. I have been watching price against both forecasts, and I now believe we are in option 2, a bullish market. If the previous up leg was only a retracement, and this down leg is in fact the impulse, then it really should have gone deeper, but assuming this current move isn't a fake out, it appears price is about to rebound.
As a result I am looking for a long entry with the following confirmation before I open the entry:
1) Volume increase on the bullish move.
2) Ehler cycle indicator to turn up. I am not looking for a cross up above the zero line, but just a turn into the upward direction.
3) For the bullish momentum to keep up as we wait for 1 and 2.
1) Bearish market: Under this assumption, the overall trend is bearish and the current move down is an impulse, meaning the previous up leg was a retracement only. This is a perfectly valid scenario, and targets work out to argue this is what is happening.
2) Bullish market: Under this assumption the current down move is simply a retracement from the previous up leg. Again, this can be argued as the targets for this also work out. Arg!
Only the market can tell us which is correct, but by then it will be too late. I have been watching price against both forecasts, and I now believe we are in option 2, a bullish market. If the previous up leg was only a retracement, and this down leg is in fact the impulse, then it really should have gone deeper, but assuming this current move isn't a fake out, it appears price is about to rebound.
As a result I am looking for a long entry with the following confirmation before I open the entry:
1) Volume increase on the bullish move.
2) Ehler cycle indicator to turn up. I am not looking for a cross up above the zero line, but just a turn into the upward direction.
3) For the bullish momentum to keep up as we wait for 1 and 2.
Order cancelled:
Didn't get the confirmations I wanted to see, so no entry was ever opened. Clearly after the last few days price is not moving as expected. No worries that's the market! We never made an entry because we didn't speculate, we waited on confirmations that didn't come. Now we step back, re-evaluate, and define new entry parameters.