Part 2: Let's Look at Worse Possible Case Scenario
My worst case scenario is a substantial wick down to the 50-MA in the 2-Week TF (Around $7,400 currently). If we were to fall that low, we can anticipate it to be similar to a "Falling Knife" event. Meaning, we would not stay down that low at all. The main reason why I contend that would be the case in my worse case scenario is because I'm rather confident we are officially in a Long Term Bull Trend based on what I'm seeing in the Monthly time frame and with what I see in Wyckoff Method Long Term Trend Analysis.
Another thing to point out is "IF" we fall down to my worse case scenario of $7,400, it needs to do it before November 15, 2019; based on what I'm seeing in the indicators in the Daily (24h) and 2-Day time frames. It's POSSIBLE this may remain above my lower Yellow Primary 0.142 FIB at $8,586.48 until November 15th to lull in margin short positions before shooting up again. I'm noticing margin long contracts dropping and margin short contracts currently rising on BitFinex. However, the margin long contracts are still substantially higher than the margin short contracts. Will they try to liquidate as many long contracts as possible by dropping us down to the Green 50-MA in the 2-Week time frame by this weekend? Sure, it's possible but too hard to call at this point in time. All I can point out currently is we are still in downward pressure at least until November 14th to 16th.
Keep in mind the bulls have made their presence known with that previous push up from my upper Yellow Primary FIB. We've recently fallen to my lower Yellow Primary FIB at $8,586.48. However, it remains to be seen if it will hold. We may fall down to what I pointed out in the "Part 1" publication between $8,340 and $8,440 by November 15th before reversal to upward pressure.
Here's another look at Wyckoff Method of Long Term Analysis:
I hope what I have shared has been beneficial. Please take a moment to click "Like" and follow if you have not done so.
Happy Trading and Stay Awesome!
David
Another thing to point out is "IF" we fall down to my worse case scenario of $7,400, it needs to do it before November 15, 2019; based on what I'm seeing in the indicators in the Daily (24h) and 2-Day time frames. It's POSSIBLE this may remain above my lower Yellow Primary 0.142 FIB at $8,586.48 until November 15th to lull in margin short positions before shooting up again. I'm noticing margin long contracts dropping and margin short contracts currently rising on BitFinex. However, the margin long contracts are still substantially higher than the margin short contracts. Will they try to liquidate as many long contracts as possible by dropping us down to the Green 50-MA in the 2-Week time frame by this weekend? Sure, it's possible but too hard to call at this point in time. All I can point out currently is we are still in downward pressure at least until November 14th to 16th.
Keep in mind the bulls have made their presence known with that previous push up from my upper Yellow Primary FIB. We've recently fallen to my lower Yellow Primary FIB at $8,586.48. However, it remains to be seen if it will hold. We may fall down to what I pointed out in the "Part 1" publication between $8,340 and $8,440 by November 15th before reversal to upward pressure.
Here's another look at Wyckoff Method of Long Term Analysis:
I hope what I have shared has been beneficial. Please take a moment to click "Like" and follow if you have not done so.
Happy Trading and Stay Awesome!
David
Comment:
Part 1: $8,340 to $8,440 by Nov. 14; Then Reversal by Nov. 15
Comment:
$8,165 - down to as low as $7,950 is beginning to look more probable at the moment. However, let me have a look at multiple time frames in an upcoming video publication.
If you have been practicing a Dollar Cost Averaging Technic, you may still have more capital in reserve to place buy orders between $7,950 and $8,165 while I work on a video publication.
If you have been practicing a Dollar Cost Averaging Technic, you may still have more capital in reserve to place buy orders between $7,950 and $8,165 while I work on a video publication.
Comment:
One important thing to point our (for those assuming a big drop is coming) the Yellow 20-MA in the 16-Day TF is in the process of a bull cross over the Green 50-MA in the 16-Day TF. Compare this to the Yellow 20-MA crossing up over the Green 50-MA back at the beginning of the bull run in 2016.
16-Day TF:
The Yellow 20-MA in the 2-Week TF acted as "support" shortly after a bull cross over the Green 50-MA of the 2-Week TF in the early stage of our 2016/2017 bull run. The Yellow 20-MA is currently sitting at $8,162. If we were to drop significantly below the Yellow 20-MA in the 2-Week TF, we can expect the Green 50-MA to catch it as "support" if it were to fall. The Green 50-MA in the 2-Week TF is currently sitting at approximately $7,400.
2-Week TF:
The Purple 128-MA in the 3-Day TF will certainly act as relatively strong support if we were to dip down a bit further. The Purple 128-MA in the 3-Day is currently sitting at approximately $7,915. We are still experiencing downward pressure but "supply" is running out and demand is soon to take control in my opinion.
3-Day TF:
Don't forget we are likely in a "Backup/ Last Point of Support" (BU/LPS) in Phase D of a Wyckoff Accumulation Schematic (Shown in first chart ABOVE in this comment section). The odds of us falling down into a prolonged bear market from here is highly unlikely.
16-Day TF:
The Yellow 20-MA in the 2-Week TF acted as "support" shortly after a bull cross over the Green 50-MA of the 2-Week TF in the early stage of our 2016/2017 bull run. The Yellow 20-MA is currently sitting at $8,162. If we were to drop significantly below the Yellow 20-MA in the 2-Week TF, we can expect the Green 50-MA to catch it as "support" if it were to fall. The Green 50-MA in the 2-Week TF is currently sitting at approximately $7,400.
2-Week TF:
The Purple 128-MA in the 3-Day TF will certainly act as relatively strong support if we were to dip down a bit further. The Purple 128-MA in the 3-Day is currently sitting at approximately $7,915. We are still experiencing downward pressure but "supply" is running out and demand is soon to take control in my opinion.
3-Day TF:
Don't forget we are likely in a "Backup/ Last Point of Support" (BU/LPS) in Phase D of a Wyckoff Accumulation Schematic (Shown in first chart ABOVE in this comment section). The odds of us falling down into a prolonged bear market from here is highly unlikely.
Comment:
Downward pressure does not necessarily equate to SERIOUS downward price movement.
The Phoenix ARI in the Monthly and 3-Week TF's tell me we are still very much in a bull market; despite what others claim.
The White Energy in the 3-Week TF is rising. We have a new 3-Week candle beginning in less than 8 hours. I want to see what the White Energy looks like in the 3-Week TF when it advances forward upon the completion of the current 3-Week Candle.
The White Energy in the 2-Week Candle has already crossed above the 50 percent level. Even though the Green Line in the 2-Week is currently angled out to the side rather than more straight up, we should not conclude it's wanting to turn down. Why? Because of what we see with several indicators in the 3-Week and the Monthly.
Since the White Energy has gone above the 50 percent level in the 2-Week TF, that leads me to believe we should not expect a significant drop in these lower time frames while the White Energy in the 2-Week TF has just gone above the 50 percent level. We can conclude if a drop were to come, we could refer to it as a "dip" and not a "dump" in the market. A dump (in my opinion) would need to be 15 percent or more in a relatively short time frame. A serious dump is 30 percent or more.
I've noticed the red volume bars continue to get shorter and shorter in the 12h TF with each release of "supply" (coins) into the market since July, 2019.
The Green Line and the White Energy in the 3-Day and 4-Day are at or below the 20 percent level. Which means it shouldn't be much longer before we see a prolonged period of upward pressure creep back into the market. It's now beginning to look more llke some time between November 19th and 21st for a potential "burst" in upward pressure.
The reason I'm saying, "burst" in upward pressure is because I think they prefer to catch retail traders by surprise with sudden upward moves that last over a short period of time then they stop applying the upward pressure for a more prolonged period of time. I think the psychology behind this method is to wait for sell orders to fill to their liking and "BAM" they buy up as many of those "healthy" sell orders as possible for the purpose of accumulation. Then the allow the market to slowly fall down over a prolonged period of time (applying little to no upward pressure) while putting in small buy orders during that prolonged period of downward pressure in an effort to patiently acquire more supply from miners needing to pay electric bill and from retail traders trying to successfully trade the market.
So, I'm expecting another "sudden" healthy move to the upside soon - possibly between November 19th and 21st. In the meantime, I'm expecting continued downward pressure with no significant move up or down.
The Phoenix ARI in the Monthly and 3-Week TF's tell me we are still very much in a bull market; despite what others claim.
The White Energy in the 3-Week TF is rising. We have a new 3-Week candle beginning in less than 8 hours. I want to see what the White Energy looks like in the 3-Week TF when it advances forward upon the completion of the current 3-Week Candle.
The White Energy in the 2-Week Candle has already crossed above the 50 percent level. Even though the Green Line in the 2-Week is currently angled out to the side rather than more straight up, we should not conclude it's wanting to turn down. Why? Because of what we see with several indicators in the 3-Week and the Monthly.
Since the White Energy has gone above the 50 percent level in the 2-Week TF, that leads me to believe we should not expect a significant drop in these lower time frames while the White Energy in the 2-Week TF has just gone above the 50 percent level. We can conclude if a drop were to come, we could refer to it as a "dip" and not a "dump" in the market. A dump (in my opinion) would need to be 15 percent or more in a relatively short time frame. A serious dump is 30 percent or more.
I've noticed the red volume bars continue to get shorter and shorter in the 12h TF with each release of "supply" (coins) into the market since July, 2019.
The Green Line and the White Energy in the 3-Day and 4-Day are at or below the 20 percent level. Which means it shouldn't be much longer before we see a prolonged period of upward pressure creep back into the market. It's now beginning to look more llke some time between November 19th and 21st for a potential "burst" in upward pressure.
The reason I'm saying, "burst" in upward pressure is because I think they prefer to catch retail traders by surprise with sudden upward moves that last over a short period of time then they stop applying the upward pressure for a more prolonged period of time. I think the psychology behind this method is to wait for sell orders to fill to their liking and "BAM" they buy up as many of those "healthy" sell orders as possible for the purpose of accumulation. Then the allow the market to slowly fall down over a prolonged period of time (applying little to no upward pressure) while putting in small buy orders during that prolonged period of downward pressure in an effort to patiently acquire more supply from miners needing to pay electric bill and from retail traders trying to successfully trade the market.
So, I'm expecting another "sudden" healthy move to the upside soon - possibly between November 19th and 21st. In the meantime, I'm expecting continued downward pressure with no significant move up or down.
Comment:
Don't be surprised if sideways price movement is the order of the day for many days to come; with the occasional up-thrust over a short period of time and followed by long periods of boring price action on diminished volume. This may likely continue until the first or second week of January, 2020.
Comment:
Update:
2-Day TF:
4-Day TF:
2-Day TF:
4-Day TF:
Comment:
Posting this chart as an update for future reference in regard to FIB's.
Comment:
If you're an "Investor" and not a "Day Trader" or "Mid Term Trader" who seeks only to find as "safe" a time as possible to make entry for a long term investment, you are waiting for the White Energy in the 3-Week TF to pass the 50% level in the indicator called, "Godmode 3.1 Mod with LSMA."
