Having a little browse through charts and there are a lot that think the bear market is over and that the bottom is in.
And BTC corrections are very tricky. I can't think of a name with are more difficult corrective chart, at least not outside of crypto. In 2018 I guessed right ( I didn't really know what I was doing then but I did guess right that it would collapse), then in 2020 I got it wrong, the contracting pattern was actually a descending channel, ugly wedge that led to a bounce.
Now we have another one of those very slow junctures and everyone wants to be ahead with the right answer of what happens next.
A lot of chartists seem to put a lot of importance on the horizontal low. And though this is clearly an important area and will be noticed by many I dont think in itself it is enough to cause a reversal. Especially when there is only one touch in the past where the low was printed. It was definitely enough to cause a big hammer because a lot of trades will be covering shorts and buys in that area: Shorts covering the low as a target and longs having their stop losses triggered (or exiting manually). This causes an automatic rally. And of course there will be new buyers.
But is this really enough to send BTC back off up to 50K and beyond?
Others also considering the low think this has been a long flat ABC correction to now take BTC up to 300K or wherever.
And then there are chartists that point out that BTC typical bear market time is up. And of the 3 I think this is the most valid point. Its certainly worth keeping track of time. I do think this may be an extended bear market due to BTC being in a higher degree bear market - supercycle wave 2, but it may not be.
Anyhow, in the immediate now, as said, BTC is printing another slow sideways correction. Let's take a look at the candles in each of the circles.
So the clue is in the candles i think and as suggested before another collapse is coming.
That said I have some contradiction in that I think a stock index bounce is coming. So if both of these are correct then it would mean that BTC would not move with indexes on this occasion. But that is possible although its not adding weight to this idea. We'll just have to keep and eye on that and see what happens if an index bounce happens - perhaps next week.
Although I am bearish, the NVT is suggesting that a bounce (at least) is coming, and not too far away. My guess is after the next capitulation crypto will have a big bounce.
Not advice.
And BTC corrections are very tricky. I can't think of a name with are more difficult corrective chart, at least not outside of crypto. In 2018 I guessed right ( I didn't really know what I was doing then but I did guess right that it would collapse), then in 2020 I got it wrong, the contracting pattern was actually a descending channel, ugly wedge that led to a bounce.
Now we have another one of those very slow junctures and everyone wants to be ahead with the right answer of what happens next.
A lot of chartists seem to put a lot of importance on the horizontal low. And though this is clearly an important area and will be noticed by many I dont think in itself it is enough to cause a reversal. Especially when there is only one touch in the past where the low was printed. It was definitely enough to cause a big hammer because a lot of trades will be covering shorts and buys in that area: Shorts covering the low as a target and longs having their stop losses triggered (or exiting manually). This causes an automatic rally. And of course there will be new buyers.
But is this really enough to send BTC back off up to 50K and beyond?
Others also considering the low think this has been a long flat ABC correction to now take BTC up to 300K or wherever.
And then there are chartists that point out that BTC typical bear market time is up. And of the 3 I think this is the most valid point. Its certainly worth keeping track of time. I do think this may be an extended bear market due to BTC being in a higher degree bear market - supercycle wave 2, but it may not be.
Anyhow, in the immediate now, as said, BTC is printing another slow sideways correction. Let's take a look at the candles in each of the circles.
- So at the start of the correction in the green circle there is quite a lot up thrust upward and there are more or larger upward momentum candles than downward. And this is relevant but obviously this can be the automatic reaction as described above.
- Then in the yellow circle its about half and half.
- Then in the red circle, although the sideways price band is maintained, the momentum candles are almost entirely bearish, and all the bullish action has become slow and corrective.
So the clue is in the candles i think and as suggested before another collapse is coming.
That said I have some contradiction in that I think a stock index bounce is coming. So if both of these are correct then it would mean that BTC would not move with indexes on this occasion. But that is possible although its not adding weight to this idea. We'll just have to keep and eye on that and see what happens if an index bounce happens - perhaps next week.
Although I am bearish, the NVT is suggesting that a bounce (at least) is coming, and not too far away. My guess is after the next capitulation crypto will have a big bounce.
Not advice.
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What does this mean? Well I think it doesn't really mean anything, it is fakeout shenanigans. The pump is reactive to the sump and so effectively nothing has happened. It will be whichever direction maintains impetus from here that will show whether a bounce or dump is coming.