Brief historical analysis
Since 2018, bitcoin has declined three times.
The first time the drop was 84% and lasted 470 days
The second time the fall was 71% and lasted 273 days
At the moment, the fall is 76% and lasts 378 days, if the fall is 84%, as in the first fall, then the price will reach 10500.
I think it's pretty obvious that Bitcoin is correlated with the Nasdaq Index and so it's worth mentioning what's in store for us in the stock market and what's in store for Bitcoin.
So, the Federal Reserve System (FRS), acting as the central bank of the United States, raised the rate by 75 basis points - from 3-3.25% to 3.75-4%, which is the highest level since January 2008. It is expected that following the meeting on December 13-14, rates will be increased by 50 basis points. Inflation in the US is 7.7%. The goal is to raise rates to bring inflation down to 2%. To what level the Fed will raise the rate is not known.
In addition, the ECB raised all three key interest rates by 75 bp in October. The base interest rate on loans was increased to 2%, the rate on deposits - up to 1.5%, the rate on margin loans - up to 2.25%. Experts expect the ECB to raise the loan rate to at least 2% from 1, 5% in December.
It is a well-known fact that an increase in the rate will lead to a recession and already in the 1.2 quarter of 2023 the consequence will be a decrease in company income, an increase in unemployment, there is already a sharp drop in demand for mortgages, car loans, and these are the main drivers of the economy and another global crisis is not ruled out.
The Fed and ECB may start cutting rates at some point next year, but only if a combination of factors materializes, including rising unemployment, lower inflation and some kind of breakdown in the financial markets, and only after the Fed and ECB cut rates, after a certain period of time, when it will be seen that there will be a long accumulation of positions in bitcoin, it will be possible to say that a bull market is beginning. It is not worth waiting for the beginning of the bull market for the cue ball until mid-2023.
As an investment, of course, an excellent entry point at a strong weekly support level is 10500, and before that it is better to trade in channels with confirmation of entry points and wait for the market to turn.
Since 2018, bitcoin has declined three times.
The first time the drop was 84% and lasted 470 days
The second time the fall was 71% and lasted 273 days
At the moment, the fall is 76% and lasts 378 days, if the fall is 84%, as in the first fall, then the price will reach 10500.
I think it's pretty obvious that Bitcoin is correlated with the Nasdaq Index and so it's worth mentioning what's in store for us in the stock market and what's in store for Bitcoin.
So, the Federal Reserve System (FRS), acting as the central bank of the United States, raised the rate by 75 basis points - from 3-3.25% to 3.75-4%, which is the highest level since January 2008. It is expected that following the meeting on December 13-14, rates will be increased by 50 basis points. Inflation in the US is 7.7%. The goal is to raise rates to bring inflation down to 2%. To what level the Fed will raise the rate is not known.
In addition, the ECB raised all three key interest rates by 75 bp in October. The base interest rate on loans was increased to 2%, the rate on deposits - up to 1.5%, the rate on margin loans - up to 2.25%. Experts expect the ECB to raise the loan rate to at least 2% from 1, 5% in December.
It is a well-known fact that an increase in the rate will lead to a recession and already in the 1.2 quarter of 2023 the consequence will be a decrease in company income, an increase in unemployment, there is already a sharp drop in demand for mortgages, car loans, and these are the main drivers of the economy and another global crisis is not ruled out.
The Fed and ECB may start cutting rates at some point next year, but only if a combination of factors materializes, including rising unemployment, lower inflation and some kind of breakdown in the financial markets, and only after the Fed and ECB cut rates, after a certain period of time, when it will be seen that there will be a long accumulation of positions in bitcoin, it will be possible to say that a bull market is beginning. It is not worth waiting for the beginning of the bull market for the cue ball until mid-2023.
As an investment, of course, an excellent entry point at a strong weekly support level is 10500, and before that it is better to trade in channels with confirmation of entry points and wait for the market to turn.
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