In my view, the RSI is at the end of an ascending triangle. It cannot break out up, because the max for RSI is 100, and an ascending triangle is bearish. So it is likely to break down, and when it does there will be a correction. Price-wise, I would say it could find support at:
$53K
$48-50K ++ most plausible first test. It marks the trend resistance that was drawn either as ascending triangle or as ascending channel, depending on how you look at it.
$35-42K + looking at the RSI breaking the triangle, and price, I think this is where it is going to find support, although it's nears 40% correction.
$32K
Depending on when the correction starts and how much momentum/panic it gathers, that is what I think is happening soon-ish.
$53K
$48-50K ++ most plausible first test. It marks the trend resistance that was drawn either as ascending triangle or as ascending channel, depending on how you look at it.
$35-42K + looking at the RSI breaking the triangle, and price, I think this is where it is going to find support, although it's nears 40% correction.
$32K
Depending on when the correction starts and how much momentum/panic it gathers, that is what I think is happening soon-ish.
Comment:
See the rising wedge (bearish) in price, the head and shoulders in making in the RSI. If the wedge breaks with volume, the RSI H&S will break. A likely fib target is around
59K
, where previous price down spike reached.
Comment:
RSI is in descent (weekly)
The descending channel broke (4h) for price and RSI (bullish), but the RSI is making higher highs and not new lows, while price is making lower highs and lower lows -- hidden bearish divergence. Price should confirm the channel breakout in a higher timeframe (daily), and ascend further to negate that bearish divergence.
So far, I am waiting for the RSI in the weekly to calm down before thinking of any long-term investment.
Comment:
I'm super-curious... the channel became a megaphone, and that megaphone is in hidden bearish divergence with RSI, MFI and OBV. Price goes down reaching lows that are proportionally stronger than the lower highs, and each time it recovers it does with proportionally more selling (the hidden bearish div) including volume (in the MFI and the OBV). All this in the 4h chart, cannot see it in the daily. The 4h chart has more noise than a longer timeframe, but to me, the expectation is that price goes to the lower boundary of the megaphone (under $60K) again. If that broke, $50K would be next.
Comment:
As a note, I have seen others pointing at an inverse head and shoulders that will drive price up. The decreasing volume pattern supports it (as it supports the idea of a megaphone, just less and less volume of transactions that express doubt or weakening of conviction in the trend). The market does what it wishes and it will go up or down, but to me that inverted HS is a mirage because of the hidden bearish divergences.
Comment:
This could be a crucial point. If the RSI crosses down (arrow), and together with price it makes a lower low, long drop. If the RSI crosses down to make a lower low but price stays above $40K (hidden bullish divergence), next bull run. I would say $40-45K is reasonable, but who knows before it happens. I just doubt price will go up much further now, unless it forms another wick up to drag shorts.
Comment:
The RSI has broken the weekly trendline, and is likely to go down to touch the next level (not a trendline yet, will see). If the RSI going down is accompanied by price, $40-50K is reasonable. If price resists from going down much further than $60 ballpark, the cooldown (and hidden bullish divergence) of RSI will allow for upside price expansion and the continuation of the bull trend until the RSI is closing on 80. Then, we could start seeing the beginning of a bearish divergence. Months to go.