Bitcoin New Long Setup To Mid 50Ks?

New swing trade long signal has been developing since yesterday's close and will become active upon a break of the 49,500 level. With the higher low established off of the 46K area, it is within reason to anticipate at least a test of the 57K peak over the coming week. So what can go wrong? Plenty.

Since the 57K peak, it is possible that Bitcoin is in the early part of a broad wave 4 consolidation. It has yet to be confirmed so that is something we must keep in mind as new long signals develop. Jumping to conclusions and reacting too early can be a very expensive exercise (especially when reinforced by inaccurate analysis). So a more conservative adjustment to profit target expectations at this point is in line with such a possibility.

At the same time, we cannot ignore the fact that the broader bullish trend is still intact. The 43K area is now an established higher low. Higher lows are often followed by higher highs in a bullish trend.

What can make a mess of things is the minor resistance around the 52 to 55K area. This is proportional to the bearish swing off of the 57K peak. IF price cannot clear it, a lower high will likely develop which would be a sign of weakness and further hint toward the consolidation phase.

We shared a swing trade long a week ago at this same price level and that trade, along with its stop and targets is still in play. No need to change anything at this point and let the market work. We also sent out some ideas for similar setups across a few alt coins as well. Since we are in Bitcoin, we are not going to add further risk by taking the same trade setup in an alt coin that follows Bitcoin. That is the same as putting on more Bitcoin. Many still do not realize that most alts do NOT trade on their own.

One thing that has kept us in the trade is being patient and NOT reacting to minor noise like we saw throughout the previous week. Rules govern our decisions, not feelings or opinions. Usually it is better to minimize one's actions and let the market play out, even if it turns out to be a stop.

Unless it is painfully clear and a sell signal develops at the predetermined resistance, we will do nothing. If the adverse setup confirms, we will consider an early exit, or partial exit to reduce risk. Keep in mind the rationale I am sharing here is specific to short term swing trading which is NOT the same for our portfolio strategy.

Based on our swing trade strategy, if 49,500 is reached, the stop loss can be placed around 46K and one target can be placed around 53K (we share 3 profit targets normally).

Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective. I hope you find it helpful. And if you are new to this, please paper trade the idea first.