Hi guys! I never write anything on tradingview, because I don’t have time and focus on developing different strategies and I trade just part of my capital in crypto, but now, I am really annoyed at what people write about the dump.
When BTC dump by 5-7% it’s generates huge headlines about its fall, and when it grows by 35%, no one notices it. When bitcoin was at the $9,000-$10,000 level, I said to my colleagues is most likely your last opportunity to buy it at that price in the nearest future. And so it happened, at the beginning of September we did a retest of the $10,100 zone and went up.
So many people at that moment shouted about shorts in different zones and few understood the situation. Since BTC, although it behaves constantly the same, nevertheless, some behavior began to change due to the fact that the capitalization of the asset becomes larger.
Since then, Bitcoin has grown by 30-35%. And it was funny to see how people immediately started dreaming of buying BTC at $10,000. A few days ago, on the way to $13,800, where our 2019 highs are, I closed 50% of the position. That's what my strategy told me. I did not close the spot positions, I only closed a part of the futures positions.
It is very important to understand that there are no strong resistance zones between $13,800 and $19,800. Of course, they are, but not as strong as, for example, $10,000 and $13,800.
What awaits us now?
Very positive scenario
We will not see the day close below $12,900. Let's test this level and slowly but surely return to $13,800 and break it. Possibly with consolidation.
Positive
Dump into the $11,900- $12,400 zone and consolidation in this zone with various sharp up and down movements in order to sow panic and take money away from small players. Then a return to $13,800 and a breakthrough. Yes, this is a 15% dump, but we have grown by 35% and it makes no sense to try to short this market, given that this is a growing market at the moment.
Negative
A negative scenario would be a correction to 10,000. It is possible if the day closes below 11800. I think that this will NOT happen, even considering the fact that many people want to buy it there :), but this situation is possible, we must also take it into account. But in this case, it is very important for us that we do not close below 10,000 on the daily and weekly charts.
Summary:
If you have a position now, I advise you to close it now and open long after breaking through $13,800.
If you do not have a position, now is a good time to wait for the breakout and enter on the breakout of $13,800. Or, on the retest, $11,900 (if it will be a successful test).
No shorts! In the current market situation, since apart from what we want to earn, we do not want to lose our deposits. It is better to slowly and confidently grow your deposit than to lose it quickly and confidently. We will talk about shorts only in case of a negative scenario.
When BTC dump by 5-7% it’s generates huge headlines about its fall, and when it grows by 35%, no one notices it. When bitcoin was at the $9,000-$10,000 level, I said to my colleagues is most likely your last opportunity to buy it at that price in the nearest future. And so it happened, at the beginning of September we did a retest of the $10,100 zone and went up.
So many people at that moment shouted about shorts in different zones and few understood the situation. Since BTC, although it behaves constantly the same, nevertheless, some behavior began to change due to the fact that the capitalization of the asset becomes larger.
Since then, Bitcoin has grown by 30-35%. And it was funny to see how people immediately started dreaming of buying BTC at $10,000. A few days ago, on the way to $13,800, where our 2019 highs are, I closed 50% of the position. That's what my strategy told me. I did not close the spot positions, I only closed a part of the futures positions.
It is very important to understand that there are no strong resistance zones between $13,800 and $19,800. Of course, they are, but not as strong as, for example, $10,000 and $13,800.
What awaits us now?
Very positive scenario
We will not see the day close below $12,900. Let's test this level and slowly but surely return to $13,800 and break it. Possibly with consolidation.
Positive
Dump into the $11,900- $12,400 zone and consolidation in this zone with various sharp up and down movements in order to sow panic and take money away from small players. Then a return to $13,800 and a breakthrough. Yes, this is a 15% dump, but we have grown by 35% and it makes no sense to try to short this market, given that this is a growing market at the moment.
Negative
A negative scenario would be a correction to 10,000. It is possible if the day closes below 11800. I think that this will NOT happen, even considering the fact that many people want to buy it there :), but this situation is possible, we must also take it into account. But in this case, it is very important for us that we do not close below 10,000 on the daily and weekly charts.
Summary:
If you have a position now, I advise you to close it now and open long after breaking through $13,800.
If you do not have a position, now is a good time to wait for the breakout and enter on the breakout of $13,800. Or, on the retest, $11,900 (if it will be a successful test).
No shorts! In the current market situation, since apart from what we want to earn, we do not want to lose our deposits. It is better to slowly and confidently grow your deposit than to lose it quickly and confidently. We will talk about shorts only in case of a negative scenario.
