JustPlainHenry

Bitcoin Analysis (10/04/2021)

Long
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin
Bitcoin has made a tremendous move recently (10/04/2021) and is looking very optimistic on the daily graph. However, it appears that it has overextended itself on the hourly and might overextend itself on the daily graph also. It has been common for Bitcoin to change trends once it hits the 2 standard deviation area and makes a move back towards the mean.
So my optimistic outlook on what bitcoin will do in the coming days is that it will continue to move upwards one more day, fuelled by ambitious traders with FOMO. Driving the price of bitcoin above the 2 standard deviation point briefly. The day following, I will expect the price to bounce back towards the mean before continuing its upward movement.
So my expected numbers are:
* A break past 61000
* A reversal back to 57500
* A continuation of the current bullish trend
The pessimistic situation is, that after there is an exhaustion in the upwards movement of the price of bitcoin, there will be a selloff that results in the price of bitcoin dropping past the mean of 57500, towards the lower 2 standard deviation point. At that point, we can either expect a trading range or a continuation of the trend. The trend is a bit more faded for the pessimistic outlook.
So my expected numbers are:
* A break past 61000
* A reversal that breaks past 57500
* Price will properly build support around 53000
* After that, we will simply need to watch what happens
* However, I am personally feeling quite bullish. Even in the pessimistic situation
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