♠CryptoMarket 101 in a Single Article
🏳BULL, BEAR, ACCUMULATION periods in crypto,
🏳CYCLES (cyle), TREND START-END ZONES,
🏳MARKET PSYCHOLOGY,
🏳DO'S AND DON'TS, LONG TERM WORK...
This is going to be a very long article, you can think of it as updating my older
articles and reviews into a single piece. Lots of technical-basic details, lots of
graphics and examples...
Here goes.
A brief background for first time readers. Since 2017, I have been in the crypto
market. Here I share what I know and experience. In general, in the market; I am
trading in a long-term-guaranteed structure. My explanations are also aimed at
this.
-Since the topics are long, the table of contents
I want to create
-Market Cycles
-Bull
-Bear
-Accumulation
-News and Media
-Trend turns
-Market Psychology
-What needs to be done to win
-Who can't win and why
-Cycles/Trends
-Cycles in Bitcoin and Altcoins
-How do we identify Buying Zones?
-How do we identify large buying zones
How to recover losses?
-Buy and sell (trade) or buy and forget (HODL)?
BULL-MONTH-ACUMULATION PERIODS IN MARKETS and INTERNAL DYNAMICS OF THE MARKET
These phases follow each other, although they vary in duration. In this way, cycles
are formed.
As long as people and markets exist, these cycles will continue. This is the purpose
of the stock market.
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For success: First of all, you need to understand what the stock market is, its
structure, its periods. You should know the trends and that the falls and rises will
end at some point.
ACCUMULATION PERIOD
The dull, no-gain zone for small investors, which follows the sharp declines of the
bear period and is partly characterized by a more horizontal sawing. For large
investors, it is the pre-bullish period, when the market gathers assets at low prices
without much notice.
Depending on the internal dynamics of the market, this period may be longer or
shorter than the bear.
(EXAMPLE) :The disbelief and suckers rally periods on Wall street cheet. This is
where most small investors fall out of the game and get the final slap in the face.
Heavy flow of bad news in this region
there are.
Those who don't know much about the market get fed up with them. In this already
sideways and unprofitable period, there is a lot of shaking and reversals. Those
who can get through this part are now on their way to earnings.
Remember, the purpose of this zone is to collect your stock cheaply so that you can
sell it at a higher price in the future. So the market shows no mercy here.
Do not expect mercy! The best thing to do in the accumulation zone is to be
patient and cost as much as possible
At this point, the thought of selling and buying a little lower can lead you to a
mistake. You can see this from those who sell around 16-17-18k because it will fall
to 10K. When the price rises to 25k levels, I wonder if I missed it, will it go from
here, will I enter, thoughts of whether to enter will tire you and lead you to error.
Do not try to look for a bottom point. Trend bottoms, turning points can be
detected more or less. For example, bitcoin has been falling since $69K. You can
say that it is appropriate to cost under 20k. You have the chance to create sub-20k
costs for about 9 months, a very sufficient time
So far we have seen $15.5k as the lowest point. It should have been bought at
those levels. Will 13 come? What difference does it make? Are you trying to get rich
with the $2000 in between, you can't. This effort is pointless.
Also, know a little bit about what you are investing in. Don't jump in on a whim, in
a moment of excitement, just because someone says so. Pay attention to past
experience. Too much experience is important in the stock market.
BULL SEASON
Did the bull come? You hear this question all the time. It's a process and I'm going
to explain this process in my own way.
The bull has started from the red candle at the bottom to the next green candle.
The Taurus period is actually a sufficient period to make money. But the feeling it
leaves in people is that it is very short. Firstly, we want it to last longer, we can't
get enough :) secondly, it ends quickly because we join the majority towards the
end.
The rise periods of altcoins are relatively shorter than bitcoin. The reasons for this;
their historical past is short, many of them are cyclical (trend), many phenomenal
expert analysts arise in the most garish last periods of the bull period.
Since they outnumber the quality people, they also outnumber the people they
interact with. New entrants have no chance to make this distinction. In the end,
they pay for it with their money. This is the same in Turkey, the US and Japan.
It is the same even in country stock exchanges within certain limits (rules). At the moment
Look at the stock exchange and you will understand directly. An environment
where money is made from money is inevitable.
is the result. Manipulation, speculation is a sine qua non (I am not praising, I am stating the existing situation).
The environment of quick gains, high excitement and easy money breeds scammers
and victims. For someone to make money, large groups have to lose money. Usually
the big losers are uninformed new investors.
In order for the last losers to win, newcomers have to enter the market (new
cycle). (new cycle) Bullish period is why novices are braver and earn more in this
phase.
Because they have no previous negative experience and they have started their
transactions in a positive environment, everything is rosy. Whatever you put your
hand on is going up. So the market allows it. The person who has experienced the
bear market for a long time cannot show this courage.
Because he has been burned once. He approaches every project cautiously, he does
not trust easily. He is too protective. His first goal is to protect his money, whether
he realizes it or not. It is not easy to get out of the psychology created by
prolonged declines.
-This psychology may continue until the increases are finalized and the bullish
trend is accepted. The biggest motivation of the bullish period is to make as much
money as possible.
is to lock in goods to too many people at peak prices. The bear season is about
taking back the goods that have been locked in at the lowest prices.
-That's why the great news is at its peak, the worst destructive and the news comes at the bottom. This is infallible. Stock market failures, delisting coins. Hacking incidents, country bans, You have to wait for the delist fury etc. If the bull at the end of the market and continue
if you're going to do it, you have to do it.
But by taking advantage of the wait. You don't have to learn everything.
Even if you learn 2 indicators in great detail, it is enough at first. Short
It is difficult to be a master in time, it requires experience.
but, if you learn to make the best use of 2-3 data
your success will increase.
Think long term, not short term. In a week It is not important to win in a month. In one year, in two years it's important to be able to win and keep it. As gambling
not as an investment What it takes to win is plain and simple, it's hard is to be able to implement them.
BEAR PERIOD
People who enter the market at the tail end of upturns often lose, and prolonged
downturns (bear period) with a bad psychology and move away from the market.
Large groups come to the market when prices are at their highest, everyone is
talking about the market, advertising and good news are abundant and euphoria is
at its peak. This is the last phase of the upswing. There is no one left to enter the
market anyway.
At first it is not clear that this is the top. Over time, the decline deepens. As the price falls, new inappropriate for investor cost-cutting starts buying at points. As the decline period extends the damage grows. Regrets begin, never again
the belief that it will not rise
Now the damage is done and the investment has melted down. According to the loss
The depression and anger experienced varies. Most people
leaving the market at this point with a big loss. From the top
coins that he's been holding without selling, usually at the bottom.
sells angrily at levels
Others lose hope and interest. Because money is has fallen so low that its increase means nothing. will not. Right now maybe you are saying: I wish bitcoin at $3000 in the past. I got in for 100 bucks when I first got in.
I wish I had. It wasn't that easy. It wasn't that day, either. It wasn't that day. that $3000 that you say you would have gotten if you'd bought people's sunken blood. crying. As bad as it is today, it was just as bad then. it was bad. In fact, 2018 was even worse than that.
I would say it is. Nobody will tell you that the market that he will return. With all the data we have we can make mathematical predictions. From this point the first thought was that I would buy from there. it seems appropriate at first, but it's an incomplete approach.
I will say this. Our emotions can be manipulated can be, but not so many technical data, charts, graphs, indicators cannot be manipulated. Leaving your emotions on the sidelines Read, study and try to act accordingly.
Objective thinking from someone who has suffered continuous losses is difficult But somewhere resetting the mind and looking from the outside to win. This is what it takes to win. After all, the money is now lost. Now the line to the past and look to the future. With the money you have left you'll think you're starting from scratch.
you'll shape it Past mistakes will only serve as a lesson. Especially near the bottom and even lower that it's a very, very good thing. Because trust lost. The investor is not affected by the market (He/she can't think.) It's gonna go higher when it's going up and lower when it's going down. likely to fall further)
To lose once and get out of the psychology of it it's hard to overcome. Emotions come into play. You can become a slave to greed and anger This is how the bottom has to be. Old thrills, goals are forgotten Despair and apathy overtake the small investor. One by one, the 10x and 100x
targets lower than the level we are at. This one that you see around you at the moment. I've never had a goal of 12k, 9k. Did you hear last year? When I was over 45k. I've never heard from anyone.
"PSYCHOLOGY"
Let's go back to emotions. I see this a lot in the market, people talking about coins
with enthusiasm,
There are those who hate coins. They are inanimate beings, don't approach them
with hate or love.
Just because you lose from a coin doesn't make it bad, just because you win doesn't
make it good. Or the fact that a coin has not increased for a long time does not
mean that it will not increase in the future. There is no certainty at this point. Yes,
it may be a finished project or it may just be waiting for its time to come.
We stay away from definitive judgments, positive or negative. Flexibility gives you an advantage.
More As I mentioned before, there is never innocence in the stock market and in making
money from money. The market is never free.
'' But this time it's different. "Every person in every era by a man. And it has always failed.
People with long experience in the markets knows very well. Each period creates its own special conditions. But the result has never changed.
At some point the market ends its decline and a new cycle. With new highs, that bad news is quickly forgotten. The loser loses and the market moves on.
The market is never innocent. There is no emotion.
There are always winners and losers. And so it will be in the future.
So I've told you so many negative things. Is it so hard?
win, does everybody have to lose?
No, I'm not telling you this to cause despair.
it's not for you to get caught up in what you're in.
you need to know and understand the rules of the game is necessary.
Know why you do what you do and be aware of the consequences
Be. This may sound like a cliché
but these are the facts.
You may be very attracted to words like 50x-100x, but nobody is a magician. No one has a secret 100x knowledge of the world.
These are just thrown up to attract attention for interaction. things. There will be coins that will do 100x, of course, but You don't hear about them by chance.
Finding a coin with 100x potential is only possible with very good fundamentals.
possible with analysis And it takes a lot of patience requires Many beautiful projects in the past such x's has done it. And it's getting harder and harder.
In both the stock market and the crypto market, there are always tips
there are. And most of them are born and spread on speculation.
Sustainable profits thanks to tips you can't. Listen but don't plan on a tip
(like don't believe in fortune telling, but don't stay without it)
"Stock investing is not a game where every shot is a goal
. You don't need to kick every ball. You can be patient and bide your time."
-Warren Buffet
Do not deify anyone in this market. You should get the information you need and move on.
The story starts like this: So many people are following this person, if I'm in the
market, I should listen to them. I almost don't know anyone in the stock market
who doesn't follow someone on social media. Everyone is always on their way.
''The general public has no idea what is going on , or even that it has no idea."
Noam Chomsky
We can definitely use this saying for the stock market .
Prices and indicators are not the same for everyone. This means that
what I mean is that you can look at the same graph at the same time
we think different things. This is because people
the positive and negative experiences they've had.
Some people saw the bitcoin chart below 20k and thought
partly as an opportunity and partly as a great destruction.
is seeing. The same for btc below the 200-week average
the remaining price is a great opportunity for some and a great opportunity for others. as a sign of fear. If the person is not capable of understanding it, they can't understand
you cannot convince if you present evidence.
Price movement should not be looked at as a belief, it is
It's math. Sooner or later, whatever the goal is, it will come true.
Prices are based on the fact that people don't act on their feelings.
for those who are disbelief at the beginning of the bull, and disbelief when the
trend ends.
overconfident people lose.
Your emotions will only mislead you in this market. robot
you have to be. When buying a coin, remember: good technique and fundamentals
you have to analyze. not only the cost but also the time.
Why did you buy that coin? I don't know, he told me, he said buy it, so
I bought it, it fell. I couldn't sell it. That's no way to make a profit. At least I know
from your point of view=)
Luck rarely smiles on you in this market. Everything else
is knowledge, experience + patience.
How do we determine whether the market will rise or fall, at what point in the
trend?
I will share my past experiences, thoughts and information I have compiled and
evaluate the issue in terms of market psychology.
One of the biggest misconceptions about the stock market
the person who is entering or less experienced
only to the extent of the period in which he or she entered. This is
it is a mistake, what needs to be done is to analyze the entire market
is to examine its history.
You've heard the saying, "It has increased 30 times in 2 years.
"If it goes another 10 floors from here... Probably
it's not going to go away. This is the idea of going 10 times more,
has been formed in line with the above-mentioned and
is not rational.
"If we had bought that coin or stock at the time, we would be rich now. This
phrase is also very familiar.
Uninformed investing based on other people's rhetoric
who think they're being given away for free on the stock exchange, on crypto.
people, people who think it's a place to make a quick quick buck.
time comes at the last link in the chain
doomed.
What has brought these people to the stock market recently is the euphoria in the
markets.
People are psychologically affected by their environment. This is called
Explanation: no one when the stock market was at 1000 points
I went from not being interested to wanting everyone to be an investor.
has taken. The same goes for bitcoin I can't convince you to buy in the $3000-$5000 range.
people are starting to ask if there's another 50-69,000 to go.
started.
The same people now thought that you should never buy bitcoin at 16k. And they
do now :)
All these are not calculated thoughts, they are purely impulsive behaviors. The
result of this behavior is to lose.
As long as people and markets exist the cycles will always continue. There will always be new
There will be winners and losers. The stock market has
that's what it's meant to be.
Now, what are we going to do with all the above? With all this information, we are
in a market where we are in relation to the summit and when now
we're trying to figure out how to get out. So what
When we say when to buy and when to sell, here is the selling
to find the time.
When does the bear market (bear period) start?
It starts 1 candle after the peak candle. Best sell
is the place. In other words, it is the peak.
Identify the peak areas (i.e. the best selling points)
technical analysis to be able to analyze the internal dynamics of the market
and we use this market psychology.
You've heard it everywhere: "The stock market is a means of transferring money
from impatient people to patient people". You will realize the truth of this saying
as your experience increases.
Of course, this alone is not enough, you need the right timing, choosing the right stock coin, uptrend
like the moves you're going to make in the trend there are. But you need to have the basic One of the disciplines is patience.
Let's go back to psychology and emotion. In the stock market
masses are guided and manipulated through emotions
is done. So, you can't take an action that you won't take
is to get your consent and get you to take that action.
To persuade you to take an action to your detriment manipulation
The manipulation of the holdings of small investors through various methods.
money, big investors, capital groups, in the hands of the newly rich. So wealth transfer
it happens. A lot of exchanges, commodities, crypto,
Thanks to parity, these wealth transfers can take place at any time.
it happens.
Once you lose, it is difficult to overcome the psychology of it. Emotions come into
play. You can be a prisoner of greed and anger. Therefore, you can know these and
try not to lose from the beginning or try to get out with less damage.
The stock market is an environment where accurate information is very valuable,
because on the Internet, we have the most information pollution, ignorance.
comments, directive content, again, the stock market
on the subject. Already twitter alone for this empty content.
Let me give you some advice.
choose the people you care about carefully. Nobody has
a magic wand or a secret secret that will make you do 100x
no information. Stay away from dishonest people.
ignore copycat scam accounts.
There is plenty of paid and unpaid education on the internet (stock market,
crypto) make time for them. Written about the stock market
look through the books. You are ready to fill yourself with knowledge.
Study In fundamental and technical analysis, investor
on psychology, behavioral economics (economics)
information on the fundamentals of the stock exchange
Try to get a job. Don't be dependent on anyone.
try to get information from everyone.
Also get to know a little bit about what you are investing in.
Don't just jump in on a whim, on the spur of the moment.
don't skip. Pay attention to past experience. In the stock market
too much experience is important.
Think medium and long term, not short term.
NEWS
In other words "ADVERTISING"
Sometimes the news is used to change the direction of movement used when the time is right.
People for sharp turns, sudden price increases you need to give big news to talk about. No reason sudden drops and exits call the system into question, it undermines trust for no reason. But if people believe in a cause, the game goes on
it does. So if people can make sense of the stake, the market from a constructive point of view.
People want to hear something is ready.
Why did it fall: it happened like this and that, that's why fallen. Most of the time it's not even relevant . Never in the mainstream media from the truth,
what goes on behind the scenes, technical analysis, our that might be useful to us.
In the low points, bad news can make you even more discouraged.
and at the summits, the good news is that there are more new
to attract investors and lock up goods over the hill is pumped.
This is how the market is managed by media power.
Paris hilton's laser eye
and how it becomes a movement and so on. Elon musk-tesla Elon-doge
Celebrities suddenly becoming bitcoiners and sharing it on the internet
Look at BTC trend analysis on Google, how similar the graphs are! >(google trends :BTC)
Remember, the stock market is not just an investment. It's a kind of to make money. The crypto market is just that is literally the stock market. In fact, I think it's the most difficult is a stock exchange. Those who want to take your money out of your hands
there are no prohibitive rules. No one will take pity on you.
Who can't win in crypto or settle for less to get out of the snow?
-Those who hurry too much in the snow those who entered the top of the -pump-dump organizations
-It's not going to go away, you keep changing coins scammers
-Those who tie all their money to a coin
-More altcoins than you can manage those buried
-Continuously chasing signals left and right, paid private
tips from fake masters he doesn't know in groups those who wait.
-While all his money is in scams consumptive.
-They are also risk averse, very stressed and fearful investment, those who drown in detail cannot win in the bull
(or earn little).
-Do not take adequate safety precautions being hacked.
-Lack of knowledge about the market, not learning.
-Despondent and negative because of constant losing to be (unable to look objectively)
-Seeking back doors and trying to pull the profit forward (
emotional trade or unknowingly margin)
Always looking to others without adequate research.
listening, losing and blaming them for mistakes,
-To excessive exuberance at the top, excessive fear at the bottom.
getting caught up in anger.
-Following the whole market only for news.
These can multiply even more. These behavior patterns
people who are in cycles cannot make money in the market.
Cycles and Similarities
Understanding Cycles in Crypto
Are there really cycles in the markets?
Are cycles only in the stock market or in all of life?
in the field?
What is the use of understanding cycles?
And how is it always increasing? Or is it not always increasing?
If it is always increasing, why is the majority losing?
Is there similarity, and if so, does it always have to be similar?
How do we recognize meaningful textures?
How do we distinguish between cycles and meaningless similarities?
How do we differentiate?
Are altoins long-term or episodic?
But could this time be different?
If time passes and human behavior is similar,
the consequences of human behavior are also interconnected
should look like.
Well, in the charts we are actually looking at something other than price.
what we see. "The consequences of human behavior.
And within cycles, there are always new winners
and there will be losers.
That is the whole point of the stock market. The last losers
for newcomers to enter the market
(new cycle)
'' But this time it's different. "A lot of people every semester.
by a man. And it has always failed.
But when it's said by the masses,
you have to stop and think about it.
People with long experience in the marketsb knows very well.
Each period creates its own special conditions. Yes.
sometimes different things happen. But the result is never
unchanged. At some point the market ends its decline and
begins a new cycle.
With new ascents, he bad news is quickly forgotten. The loser loses and
the market continues on its path
Two years is a short time in financial markets. Especially
very, very short time in non-crypto markets.
Cycles are faster in crypto than in general markets
is taking place.
In classical stock markets, commodities, exchange rates
cycles spanning almost a human lifetime, now
today, the pace of life, the impact of technology and
shorter periods of time with the increase in the number of investors
down.
Another reason for the speed in crypto is that the market is 24/7 and
365 days of trading. Within a year
more transactions in crypto than in other markets
we see a lot of movement.
The crypto market is the most suitable for the speed of the new world (technologyfashion-fashion-obsolescence-consumption speed etc.) and the age
is the market that reflects its speed.
Fast technology, fast fashion, fast communication, fast people
relations, fast production-consumption; and of course fast
MARKET The increase in speed in every aspect of life is of course
it would also affect the markets.
There are good and bad sides to this; very fast losses and very
gains in a short time.
Reasons for rapid losses and gains:
a-) The market we are in is not regulated (rule-law),
b-) The fact that the technology is very new, that the technological part is
understood only by a certain segment of the world in general, again speaking for the world in general; a very minority group is capable of distinguishing right from wrong only with their own analysis
c-) The fact that transactions can be made very easily by anyone (young, old, rich, poor, educated, uneducated, women, men, etc.) regardless of class, gender, age, with just one phone call
What do I mean by the above?
a-) Lack of supervisory and regulatory rules;
There is no regulation that protects the investor in this market
.
In other words, our money is not protected or insured by any state-institution as of now
.
As you know, when there are no rules and there is big and easy money involved, malicious people end up here immediately. The fact that it's easy to issue tokens, to create and sell tokens , to market them, to advertise them is not subject to any rules. The limited number of shares on exchanges and too many rules for IPOs (according to crypto=) ) So there are coins coming out almost every minute. Exchanges can be easily opened in tax haven countries, Easy (low-cost) listing of coins on decentralized exchanges or shitcoin exchanges. It is easy to issue and sell tokens as if you were creating assets from scratch with no strings attached and it is very easy to sell during bull periods, There is no penalty for marketing and manipulating Shitcoins on Social Media.
Since it is the most risk-averse market in the world, rug-pulling is considered normal by investors
.
The ability to make big profits in a short period of time at a low cost by experienced malicious people
.
(We have seen many examples of the bull, which we have seen many examples of
before, hitting 4-5m USD with a cost of $ 50,000 and escaping -
advertising, shilling, etc.).
b-) Incompetent people believe in everything and enter into direct transactions without knowing and learning ( creating volume ) (small money - many transactions) Experienced investors make fewer transactions with more information and analysis (big money - few transactions), On the contrary, stock market advertisements that push
inadequate or new investors to make more transactions with sudden decisions and feelings, and
those who believe in the "more transactions, more money perception" to make more transactions (stock market = commission income)
Are altoins long-term or cyclical?
To put it crudely: The more shitcoin an Altcoin is, the more cyclical it is (i.e. earn during the trend and run when the trend ends) The more quality and proven the AltCoin is and the more it
solves a problem, the more long-term it is. Altcoin/btc to understand what I mean You can look at the pairs. Very few Altcoins
have been able to show a sustainable increase against BTC and only in certain periods.
Does the crypto market always have to grow in the long run?
"Yes" against paper currencies unless there are very harsh regulations or bans whether it is usd, eur, gbp or jpy.
The content of cycles:
Briefly: 3 periods Fall from peak > accumulation > rally
Bottom level base formation, saw (acc zone) zone, pre-rally, disbelief, aggressive rally.
Afterwards; repetition of the cycle according to the conditions of the coming days
.
Although the cycles follow one another, each cycle has its own are different from each other.
In other words, the downturn-accumulation-upturn periods may be of different lengths. Depending on the conditions of the period, there may have been a very long uptrend.
This may be followed by a very long and sharp correction. At the end of a weak trend, the downturn may be short
We will examine the details on the charts. When we enter the accumulation period, the price has realized the bottom formation and the products sold at the peak have started to be collected again at low cost by the big players (capital, whales, rich people, masons, 7 families ruling the world, whatever you want to call it:) ).
-This process can be long or short depending on the period.
(see chainlink)
Sometimes markets can recover quickly with a V shape (rapid decline-fast reaction)
(2020 march covid period). Sometimes we see a saw in a certain narrow price range at the bottom.
(Btc 2015-2016) The aim is to collect goods without raising the price and without making it obvious.
Continue reading -media- news- disappointment- disbelief. After the darkest moment of the night, the sun begins to rise After accumulation, it is difficult to predict when the movement
will turn upwards, but we can identify this zone with psychological and technical indicators.
-So we understand the cycle, where are we in the cycle?
Which pairs to understand?
>Btc/usd
>ETH/usd total, ETH/BTC
>XRP/BTC, LTC/BTC, BNB/BTC
>total2, total3 and others >major altcoins >dxy >vix index
>sp500, nasdaq, nikkei225,
>Altcoin Index
Understanding the cycle through Doge?
Dogecoin was launched in December 2013. In December this year, it will be 10 years old. That's a long time for the crypto market. We have witnessed 3 different cycles of Doge in these 10 years .
1. Trend > It took 476 minutes to fall from its peak to its lowest point. It then rose
from this point (not forming a new bottom) and accumulated.
This up and down process lasted until February 2017 This is where the "doge-style bullish" phase , as we will later call it, begins. In the area where this uptrend started, it gets support
from the 75-week moving average (75w sma) and the move begins.
Level 1: Peak zone
Level 2: Intermediate transition line (Important support-resistances are in place)
Level 3: Bottom and Accumulation bowl
2nd Trend > The uptrend that started in February 2017 continues until January 2018 with 2 stages.
The 3-level structure is also seen here. The decline from the peak to the low lasts 798 days. The upward break of the trend lasts 910.
Here, too, the region gets support from the 75-week moving average (75w sma-red line) and aggressive movement begins.We can say that the rise until May 2021 is again in 2 phases.
3rd Trend > May 2021 with the whole market The trend in Doge is also shifting to the downside. The lowest level we have seen so far in this trend is $0.05. It has been 883 days since the May 2021 peak. We are below the 75-week average, which is currently at $0.075.
What's important on this cycle chart of Dogecoin;
3-level structure
Time from peak > trend breakout
Position relative to 75-week moving average
2-stage aggressive
upward movements
starting after trend breakout.
Explaining through Doge is easy for both the teller
and the reader. It shows the cycle clearly.
I have prepared multiple doge charts,
you can examine them.
DOGE/BTC
Are there similarities? If so, do they always have to be similar?
Capturing similarities and using them meaningfully Similarity in coins does not always have to be in every product.
Different movements may have occurred in very different scenarios.
The important thing is to find the mathematically meaningful similarity and draw useful conclusions.
Similarity is not just a resemblance of shape when viewed from a distance.
It must be confirmed in many ways and temporally proportional.
Rsi, moving averages, etc. indicators should also be available. Just as technical analysis is not just 2 lines, similarity is not just a resemblance of shape. It should also be remembered that
Cycles and similarities are most meaningful on long-term charts.
Siacoin, digibyte, verge, xlm....
SIA/USD
Digibyte/USD
XVG(Verge)/USD
XLM/USD
Understanding the similarities between monero and iota.
IOTA/USD
MONERO(XMR)/USD
How similar they are in themselves, right?
I mean, how they've fed us a similar move for the 2nd time, and in some cases even the 3rd
time :D
Why are altcoins in the BUY ZONE and how do we identify it?
In this section, I will evaluate the subject according to my own experience and thoughts and
talk about how the market is doing.
I will do the review in 2 parts.
1- Psychological
2- Technical.
From the very beginning, I will say my opinion without beating around the bush :
We are at the bottom levels on behalf of major altcoins and in my opinion, we are at the stages to be purchased.
Is it the bottom? -I don't know.
Can it go lower? -Maybe, I don't know that either.
And I'm not trying to look for the exact bottom. The buy point is not a single place. Focus on buying zones instead of buying points.
I'm talking about the average cost between certain bands, the average cost in bad periods.
Let's expand a bit more; in my previous articles, I have talked a lot about the
bottom zones, what they are, how they feel. I repeat; we are not looking for a bottom.
Yes, we have more or less identified the bottom areas, what is the next step? Patience and good psychology management. Analyzing the history of the altcoin or the index itself , making comparisons. Using technical data correctly . And while doing this, being objective and not letting our emotions get in the way. It is our "emotions" that will hurt us the most in these bad zones and will knock us out of the game . This is the area to focus on projects.
Projects that will exist in the future with fundamental analysis should be selected in these regions. The same goes for new projects . Time for discovery!
- As we say: "Look at the coin, it has made 200X from this time to this time.";
You should know that in order to make 200x, you need to buy from these feared regions.
Don't expect positive news in these areas. News at the lows is bad ( to break hope), news at the highs is good (to keep the euphoria going). The informed investor comes to the market in bad areas, the unconscious and new investor comes to the market at the top.
2017-2018 crypto, 2022 crypto are the best examples.
There is an expression: "Ignore the noise!" This is how I do it. Ignore the noise The lows and highs are noisy times with lots of information pollution,
where everyone is talking, false information is spread, and everyone repeats each other.
I have observed that there are unleveled discussions and that people (influencers) on social media are discussing prices. etc) fighting with each other. If you have survived up to this point, it is shorter from here.
Don't underestimate the cycles and study them carefully (math).
> What if this time it happens differently? What if the circumstances are different and the decline lasts longer? What if this time it doesn't go up at all?
These questions don't come to your mind during the bull process. Because this is how the market works, you are not independent of it .
When it's going up, you always think it will go higher and higher, and you don't think about the fall. You are happy, you think you will gain more. The fall is the opposite.
Your psychology, which has been worn out for a long time in that downward spiral, prevents
you from seeing
the reality
.
These sentences describing the psychology of the business are not something that few people know in secret.
On the contrary, it is information that has been publicly available for many years since the stock markets have existed
.
The difficult part is the application and self-management.
For example;
An Altcoin (non-scam, continuing as a project) that falls from $ 100 and reaches $ 5
levels can be cheap provided that it is supported by technical data. Yes, there may be a possibility that this Altcoin may fall to 3$. But still, $5 is a good buying level.
Let's repeat, it fell from 100 >> you bought it at $5 >>> then it bottomed at $3 >> and
reached $50 in the new cycle. A successful purchase. You don't realize it in those
days, you wait patiently and reap the rewards when you reach your target. When the coin is at $3, there will always be those who will target lower levels, who will say not to buy in this area .
This has always been the case in the past. In December 2018 , when Bitcoin dropped to $3200, there was a very famous $1800 level that everyone was waiting for.
Likewise, when Bitcoin hit $3900 during the covid period in March 2020 , lower levels were expected. But it didn't happen, and I saw those who waited jumped on the train at higher prices later, while others were completely out of the loop and missed out on great opportunities.
No one can collect a product, a coin at a single price , it is not possible for anyone.
When we look technically; yes,
there are still lower levels, this is true. But none of us know where the bottom and the most
favorable point is. We only make predictions with the data we have.
I would like to add, don't look for certainty. Be ready for unpredictable outcomes.
Leaving wiggle room makes you more successful and resilient.
You are here to make money and you have to be resilient
. It' s not easy, it's hard, but it's possible. Let's move on to the technical part.
Time to put our psychological observations into math!
The data I use the most. Cyclical analysis, average decline times during bear
season, total, total2, total3, others indc., ETH/BTC,
Altcoin charts with monthly, 1 and 2-week candles, on-chain data, indicators (many) etc...
These are the indicators I use. The most important ones are RSI, LMACD, Moving averages. The others are a bit more detailed and capture something different
.
Let's start with Total2 Marketcap.
It peaked (top) in November 2021
It has been 707 days since the TOP
I have shown 707 days on the chart. I am looking at where these 707 days coincide with the peak in the previous cycle
Yes, more or less at the end of the downtrend. I don't expect it to be exactly the same,
I'm looking for similarities and that's enough. Remember it doesn't have to be exactly the same
Also, there is a "Gaussian Channel" on the chart
Others Marketcap (Altcoins)
Bitcoin /// “Does history repeat itself or not?”
Now we may be thinking about this. We may have seen In the cycle, "there was another bottom, that is, a little bit lower , and then it started to bull".
So does it have to be like that now? I don't know that . So what can I do?
I'm mostly in altcoins and have a small amount of cash. If that drop comes, I'll buy with the last of my cash . If it doesn't and it goes up from here, what I already have will take me to the top.
People think. Is there anything lower? Then I'll sell all I have and buy it all again when it falls . FOR ME: No way . It is a gamble and a move I would not make.
The decision is up to you. Everyone's trading strategy, perception of risk and supply of moves are different. It doesn't suit me. What I know is that the uptrend will start again and these days will be behind us. What I don't know is when this accumulation process will end. It is one thing if you are a professional in trading , I am talking more about a non-pro style. If you follow the charts and articles I share, you know more or less how I think. Total3 Marketcap. Actually, it's not that different. Let's analyze it anyway.
Others Marketcap (The entire market excluding the top 10 coins). As you can see here, we are close to a breakout. This could happen all at once in the coming weeks. It could be
rejected and push this process forward by 1-2 months. But Nothing changes for me after the breakthrough.
Those who wait 2 years have to wait 2 months more.
When I examine it ONLY TECHNICALLY
POLKADOT VS ETH
ALGORAND
CHZ
CARDANO
MANA(DECENTRALAND)
LTC(LITECOIN)
MATIC (POLYGON)
I've looked at a lot of technical data on these coins and found them to be
favorable, but it's enough to simply see them with the RSI level. Remember,
favorable does not mean that there is no possibility of a lower level. I'm not saying
to go out and buy these coins without question.
There are old altcoins that show cyclicality very well, be sure to examine them in detail. I prefer a colorful visual style for easy understanding. You can simply understand where we are in the cycle digibyte DGB/USD a very good example of similarity siacoin SC/USD
Another good example for understanding cycles
XRP/USD
XRP/BTC
XRP/BTC. We're in the last zone of the big structure.
In fact, this formation is a "bigger version" of the previous one in 2013-2017 . Don't focus on
the tiny possibility of a fall at the bottom . Focus on the big area above
Ethereum ETH/USD and ETH/BTC are the leading pair of Altcoins.
ETH/USD
Another version ETH/USD
ETH/BTC
It is important to examine the most important parity Major Altcoins in the BTC parity ETH/BTC,
where we will follow the altcoin rises. When we examine it in the long term, a large triangle has formed. This triangle will break upwards from the last region, but tomorrow but weeks later. In ETH/BTC, I am not focused on the small area at the end, but on the gains that will be experienced after the breakout (2024-2025 Bull Season).
LTC/BTC
MATIC/BTC
I'm slowly finishing the cycles part.
It's not something where you get a return on your investment tomorrow . It requires patience and sound psychology. You cannot make money in one day like day trading. You even have to be willing to spend a long time without earning.
Don't wear yourself out with thoughts like ; why is it constantly falling like this,
I have no patience anymore , this will not work . If you want to make a profit, you have to deal with the market . No one told you it would be easy .
Maybe you are tired of the same words, but there is not much time left, every
decline from now on is a buying opportunity in Bitcoin and major altcoins.
There is probably a lot more to write, but the summary is in the first paragraphs. I will not prolong it.
Thank you for reading..
🏳BULL, BEAR, ACCUMULATION periods in crypto,
🏳CYCLES (cyle), TREND START-END ZONES,
🏳MARKET PSYCHOLOGY,
🏳DO'S AND DON'TS, LONG TERM WORK...
This is going to be a very long article, you can think of it as updating my older
articles and reviews into a single piece. Lots of technical-basic details, lots of
graphics and examples...
Here goes.
A brief background for first time readers. Since 2017, I have been in the crypto
market. Here I share what I know and experience. In general, in the market; I am
trading in a long-term-guaranteed structure. My explanations are also aimed at
this.
-Since the topics are long, the table of contents
I want to create
-Market Cycles
-Bull
-Bear
-Accumulation
-News and Media
-Trend turns
-Market Psychology
-What needs to be done to win
-Who can't win and why
-Cycles/Trends
-Cycles in Bitcoin and Altcoins
-How do we identify Buying Zones?
-How do we identify large buying zones
How to recover losses?
-Buy and sell (trade) or buy and forget (HODL)?
BULL-MONTH-ACUMULATION PERIODS IN MARKETS and INTERNAL DYNAMICS OF THE MARKET
These phases follow each other, although they vary in duration. In this way, cycles
are formed.
As long as people and markets exist, these cycles will continue. This is the purpose
of the stock market.
Subscribe to DeepL Pro to edit this document.
Visit www.DeepL.com/pro for more information.
For success: First of all, you need to understand what the stock market is, its
structure, its periods. You should know the trends and that the falls and rises will
end at some point.
ACCUMULATION PERIOD
The dull, no-gain zone for small investors, which follows the sharp declines of the
bear period and is partly characterized by a more horizontal sawing. For large
investors, it is the pre-bullish period, when the market gathers assets at low prices
without much notice.
Depending on the internal dynamics of the market, this period may be longer or
shorter than the bear.
(EXAMPLE) :The disbelief and suckers rally periods on Wall street cheet. This is
where most small investors fall out of the game and get the final slap in the face.
Heavy flow of bad news in this region
there are.
Those who don't know much about the market get fed up with them. In this already
sideways and unprofitable period, there is a lot of shaking and reversals. Those
who can get through this part are now on their way to earnings.
Remember, the purpose of this zone is to collect your stock cheaply so that you can
sell it at a higher price in the future. So the market shows no mercy here.
Do not expect mercy! The best thing to do in the accumulation zone is to be
patient and cost as much as possible
At this point, the thought of selling and buying a little lower can lead you to a
mistake. You can see this from those who sell around 16-17-18k because it will fall
to 10K. When the price rises to 25k levels, I wonder if I missed it, will it go from
here, will I enter, thoughts of whether to enter will tire you and lead you to error.
Do not try to look for a bottom point. Trend bottoms, turning points can be
detected more or less. For example, bitcoin has been falling since $69K. You can
say that it is appropriate to cost under 20k. You have the chance to create sub-20k
costs for about 9 months, a very sufficient time
So far we have seen $15.5k as the lowest point. It should have been bought at
those levels. Will 13 come? What difference does it make? Are you trying to get rich
with the $2000 in between, you can't. This effort is pointless.
Also, know a little bit about what you are investing in. Don't jump in on a whim, in
a moment of excitement, just because someone says so. Pay attention to past
experience. Too much experience is important in the stock market.
BULL SEASON
Did the bull come? You hear this question all the time. It's a process and I'm going
to explain this process in my own way.
The bull has started from the red candle at the bottom to the next green candle.
The Taurus period is actually a sufficient period to make money. But the feeling it
leaves in people is that it is very short. Firstly, we want it to last longer, we can't
get enough :) secondly, it ends quickly because we join the majority towards the
end.
The rise periods of altcoins are relatively shorter than bitcoin. The reasons for this;
their historical past is short, many of them are cyclical (trend), many phenomenal
expert analysts arise in the most garish last periods of the bull period.
Since they outnumber the quality people, they also outnumber the people they
interact with. New entrants have no chance to make this distinction. In the end,
they pay for it with their money. This is the same in Turkey, the US and Japan.
It is the same even in country stock exchanges within certain limits (rules). At the moment
Look at the stock exchange and you will understand directly. An environment
where money is made from money is inevitable.
is the result. Manipulation, speculation is a sine qua non (I am not praising, I am stating the existing situation).
The environment of quick gains, high excitement and easy money breeds scammers
and victims. For someone to make money, large groups have to lose money. Usually
the big losers are uninformed new investors.
In order for the last losers to win, newcomers have to enter the market (new
cycle). (new cycle) Bullish period is why novices are braver and earn more in this
phase.
Because they have no previous negative experience and they have started their
transactions in a positive environment, everything is rosy. Whatever you put your
hand on is going up. So the market allows it. The person who has experienced the
bear market for a long time cannot show this courage.
Because he has been burned once. He approaches every project cautiously, he does
not trust easily. He is too protective. His first goal is to protect his money, whether
he realizes it or not. It is not easy to get out of the psychology created by
prolonged declines.
-This psychology may continue until the increases are finalized and the bullish
trend is accepted. The biggest motivation of the bullish period is to make as much
money as possible.
is to lock in goods to too many people at peak prices. The bear season is about
taking back the goods that have been locked in at the lowest prices.
-That's why the great news is at its peak, the worst destructive and the news comes at the bottom. This is infallible. Stock market failures, delisting coins. Hacking incidents, country bans, You have to wait for the delist fury etc. If the bull at the end of the market and continue
if you're going to do it, you have to do it.
But by taking advantage of the wait. You don't have to learn everything.
Even if you learn 2 indicators in great detail, it is enough at first. Short
It is difficult to be a master in time, it requires experience.
but, if you learn to make the best use of 2-3 data
your success will increase.
Think long term, not short term. In a week It is not important to win in a month. In one year, in two years it's important to be able to win and keep it. As gambling
not as an investment What it takes to win is plain and simple, it's hard is to be able to implement them.
BEAR PERIOD
People who enter the market at the tail end of upturns often lose, and prolonged
downturns (bear period) with a bad psychology and move away from the market.
Large groups come to the market when prices are at their highest, everyone is
talking about the market, advertising and good news are abundant and euphoria is
at its peak. This is the last phase of the upswing. There is no one left to enter the
market anyway.
At first it is not clear that this is the top. Over time, the decline deepens. As the price falls, new inappropriate for investor cost-cutting starts buying at points. As the decline period extends the damage grows. Regrets begin, never again
the belief that it will not rise
Now the damage is done and the investment has melted down. According to the loss
The depression and anger experienced varies. Most people
leaving the market at this point with a big loss. From the top
coins that he's been holding without selling, usually at the bottom.
sells angrily at levels
Others lose hope and interest. Because money is has fallen so low that its increase means nothing. will not. Right now maybe you are saying: I wish bitcoin at $3000 in the past. I got in for 100 bucks when I first got in.
I wish I had. It wasn't that easy. It wasn't that day, either. It wasn't that day. that $3000 that you say you would have gotten if you'd bought people's sunken blood. crying. As bad as it is today, it was just as bad then. it was bad. In fact, 2018 was even worse than that.
I would say it is. Nobody will tell you that the market that he will return. With all the data we have we can make mathematical predictions. From this point the first thought was that I would buy from there. it seems appropriate at first, but it's an incomplete approach.
I will say this. Our emotions can be manipulated can be, but not so many technical data, charts, graphs, indicators cannot be manipulated. Leaving your emotions on the sidelines Read, study and try to act accordingly.
Objective thinking from someone who has suffered continuous losses is difficult But somewhere resetting the mind and looking from the outside to win. This is what it takes to win. After all, the money is now lost. Now the line to the past and look to the future. With the money you have left you'll think you're starting from scratch.
you'll shape it Past mistakes will only serve as a lesson. Especially near the bottom and even lower that it's a very, very good thing. Because trust lost. The investor is not affected by the market (He/she can't think.) It's gonna go higher when it's going up and lower when it's going down. likely to fall further)
To lose once and get out of the psychology of it it's hard to overcome. Emotions come into play. You can become a slave to greed and anger This is how the bottom has to be. Old thrills, goals are forgotten Despair and apathy overtake the small investor. One by one, the 10x and 100x
targets lower than the level we are at. This one that you see around you at the moment. I've never had a goal of 12k, 9k. Did you hear last year? When I was over 45k. I've never heard from anyone.
"PSYCHOLOGY"
Let's go back to emotions. I see this a lot in the market, people talking about coins
with enthusiasm,
There are those who hate coins. They are inanimate beings, don't approach them
with hate or love.
Just because you lose from a coin doesn't make it bad, just because you win doesn't
make it good. Or the fact that a coin has not increased for a long time does not
mean that it will not increase in the future. There is no certainty at this point. Yes,
it may be a finished project or it may just be waiting for its time to come.
We stay away from definitive judgments, positive or negative. Flexibility gives you an advantage.
More As I mentioned before, there is never innocence in the stock market and in making
money from money. The market is never free.
'' But this time it's different. "Every person in every era by a man. And it has always failed.
People with long experience in the markets knows very well. Each period creates its own special conditions. But the result has never changed.
At some point the market ends its decline and a new cycle. With new highs, that bad news is quickly forgotten. The loser loses and the market moves on.
The market is never innocent. There is no emotion.
There are always winners and losers. And so it will be in the future.
So I've told you so many negative things. Is it so hard?
win, does everybody have to lose?
No, I'm not telling you this to cause despair.
it's not for you to get caught up in what you're in.
you need to know and understand the rules of the game is necessary.
Know why you do what you do and be aware of the consequences
Be. This may sound like a cliché
but these are the facts.
You may be very attracted to words like 50x-100x, but nobody is a magician. No one has a secret 100x knowledge of the world.
These are just thrown up to attract attention for interaction. things. There will be coins that will do 100x, of course, but You don't hear about them by chance.
Finding a coin with 100x potential is only possible with very good fundamentals.
possible with analysis And it takes a lot of patience requires Many beautiful projects in the past such x's has done it. And it's getting harder and harder.
In both the stock market and the crypto market, there are always tips
there are. And most of them are born and spread on speculation.
Sustainable profits thanks to tips you can't. Listen but don't plan on a tip
(like don't believe in fortune telling, but don't stay without it)
"Stock investing is not a game where every shot is a goal
. You don't need to kick every ball. You can be patient and bide your time."
-Warren Buffet
Do not deify anyone in this market. You should get the information you need and move on.
The story starts like this: So many people are following this person, if I'm in the
market, I should listen to them. I almost don't know anyone in the stock market
who doesn't follow someone on social media. Everyone is always on their way.
''The general public has no idea what is going on , or even that it has no idea."
Noam Chomsky
We can definitely use this saying for the stock market .
Prices and indicators are not the same for everyone. This means that
what I mean is that you can look at the same graph at the same time
we think different things. This is because people
the positive and negative experiences they've had.
Some people saw the bitcoin chart below 20k and thought
partly as an opportunity and partly as a great destruction.
is seeing. The same for btc below the 200-week average
the remaining price is a great opportunity for some and a great opportunity for others. as a sign of fear. If the person is not capable of understanding it, they can't understand
you cannot convince if you present evidence.
Price movement should not be looked at as a belief, it is
It's math. Sooner or later, whatever the goal is, it will come true.
Prices are based on the fact that people don't act on their feelings.
for those who are disbelief at the beginning of the bull, and disbelief when the
trend ends.
overconfident people lose.
Your emotions will only mislead you in this market. robot
you have to be. When buying a coin, remember: good technique and fundamentals
you have to analyze. not only the cost but also the time.
Why did you buy that coin? I don't know, he told me, he said buy it, so
I bought it, it fell. I couldn't sell it. That's no way to make a profit. At least I know
from your point of view=)
Luck rarely smiles on you in this market. Everything else
is knowledge, experience + patience.
How do we determine whether the market will rise or fall, at what point in the
trend?
I will share my past experiences, thoughts and information I have compiled and
evaluate the issue in terms of market psychology.
One of the biggest misconceptions about the stock market
the person who is entering or less experienced
only to the extent of the period in which he or she entered. This is
it is a mistake, what needs to be done is to analyze the entire market
is to examine its history.
You've heard the saying, "It has increased 30 times in 2 years.
"If it goes another 10 floors from here... Probably
it's not going to go away. This is the idea of going 10 times more,
has been formed in line with the above-mentioned and
is not rational.
"If we had bought that coin or stock at the time, we would be rich now. This
phrase is also very familiar.
Uninformed investing based on other people's rhetoric
who think they're being given away for free on the stock exchange, on crypto.
people, people who think it's a place to make a quick quick buck.
time comes at the last link in the chain
doomed.
What has brought these people to the stock market recently is the euphoria in the
markets.
People are psychologically affected by their environment. This is called
Explanation: no one when the stock market was at 1000 points
I went from not being interested to wanting everyone to be an investor.
has taken. The same goes for bitcoin I can't convince you to buy in the $3000-$5000 range.
people are starting to ask if there's another 50-69,000 to go.
started.
The same people now thought that you should never buy bitcoin at 16k. And they
do now :)
All these are not calculated thoughts, they are purely impulsive behaviors. The
result of this behavior is to lose.
As long as people and markets exist the cycles will always continue. There will always be new
There will be winners and losers. The stock market has
that's what it's meant to be.
Now, what are we going to do with all the above? With all this information, we are
in a market where we are in relation to the summit and when now
we're trying to figure out how to get out. So what
When we say when to buy and when to sell, here is the selling
to find the time.
When does the bear market (bear period) start?
It starts 1 candle after the peak candle. Best sell
is the place. In other words, it is the peak.
Identify the peak areas (i.e. the best selling points)
technical analysis to be able to analyze the internal dynamics of the market
and we use this market psychology.
You've heard it everywhere: "The stock market is a means of transferring money
from impatient people to patient people". You will realize the truth of this saying
as your experience increases.
Of course, this alone is not enough, you need the right timing, choosing the right stock coin, uptrend
like the moves you're going to make in the trend there are. But you need to have the basic One of the disciplines is patience.
Let's go back to psychology and emotion. In the stock market
masses are guided and manipulated through emotions
is done. So, you can't take an action that you won't take
is to get your consent and get you to take that action.
To persuade you to take an action to your detriment manipulation
The manipulation of the holdings of small investors through various methods.
money, big investors, capital groups, in the hands of the newly rich. So wealth transfer
it happens. A lot of exchanges, commodities, crypto,
Thanks to parity, these wealth transfers can take place at any time.
it happens.
Once you lose, it is difficult to overcome the psychology of it. Emotions come into
play. You can be a prisoner of greed and anger. Therefore, you can know these and
try not to lose from the beginning or try to get out with less damage.
The stock market is an environment where accurate information is very valuable,
because on the Internet, we have the most information pollution, ignorance.
comments, directive content, again, the stock market
on the subject. Already twitter alone for this empty content.
Let me give you some advice.
choose the people you care about carefully. Nobody has
a magic wand or a secret secret that will make you do 100x
no information. Stay away from dishonest people.
ignore copycat scam accounts.
There is plenty of paid and unpaid education on the internet (stock market,
crypto) make time for them. Written about the stock market
look through the books. You are ready to fill yourself with knowledge.
Study In fundamental and technical analysis, investor
on psychology, behavioral economics (economics)
information on the fundamentals of the stock exchange
Try to get a job. Don't be dependent on anyone.
try to get information from everyone.
Also get to know a little bit about what you are investing in.
Don't just jump in on a whim, on the spur of the moment.
don't skip. Pay attention to past experience. In the stock market
too much experience is important.
Think medium and long term, not short term.
NEWS
In other words "ADVERTISING"
Sometimes the news is used to change the direction of movement used when the time is right.
People for sharp turns, sudden price increases you need to give big news to talk about. No reason sudden drops and exits call the system into question, it undermines trust for no reason. But if people believe in a cause, the game goes on
it does. So if people can make sense of the stake, the market from a constructive point of view.
People want to hear something is ready.
Why did it fall: it happened like this and that, that's why fallen. Most of the time it's not even relevant . Never in the mainstream media from the truth,
what goes on behind the scenes, technical analysis, our that might be useful to us.
In the low points, bad news can make you even more discouraged.
and at the summits, the good news is that there are more new
to attract investors and lock up goods over the hill is pumped.
This is how the market is managed by media power.
Paris hilton's laser eye
and how it becomes a movement and so on. Elon musk-tesla Elon-doge
Celebrities suddenly becoming bitcoiners and sharing it on the internet
Look at BTC trend analysis on Google, how similar the graphs are! >(google trends :BTC)
Remember, the stock market is not just an investment. It's a kind of to make money. The crypto market is just that is literally the stock market. In fact, I think it's the most difficult is a stock exchange. Those who want to take your money out of your hands
there are no prohibitive rules. No one will take pity on you.
Who can't win in crypto or settle for less to get out of the snow?
-Those who hurry too much in the snow those who entered the top of the -pump-dump organizations
-It's not going to go away, you keep changing coins scammers
-Those who tie all their money to a coin
-More altcoins than you can manage those buried
-Continuously chasing signals left and right, paid private
tips from fake masters he doesn't know in groups those who wait.
-While all his money is in scams consumptive.
-They are also risk averse, very stressed and fearful investment, those who drown in detail cannot win in the bull
(or earn little).
-Do not take adequate safety precautions being hacked.
-Lack of knowledge about the market, not learning.
-Despondent and negative because of constant losing to be (unable to look objectively)
-Seeking back doors and trying to pull the profit forward (
emotional trade or unknowingly margin)
Always looking to others without adequate research.
listening, losing and blaming them for mistakes,
-To excessive exuberance at the top, excessive fear at the bottom.
getting caught up in anger.
-Following the whole market only for news.
These can multiply even more. These behavior patterns
people who are in cycles cannot make money in the market.
Cycles and Similarities
Understanding Cycles in Crypto
Are there really cycles in the markets?
Are cycles only in the stock market or in all of life?
in the field?
What is the use of understanding cycles?
And how is it always increasing? Or is it not always increasing?
If it is always increasing, why is the majority losing?
Is there similarity, and if so, does it always have to be similar?
How do we recognize meaningful textures?
How do we distinguish between cycles and meaningless similarities?
How do we differentiate?
Are altoins long-term or episodic?
But could this time be different?
If time passes and human behavior is similar,
the consequences of human behavior are also interconnected
should look like.
Well, in the charts we are actually looking at something other than price.
what we see. "The consequences of human behavior.
And within cycles, there are always new winners
and there will be losers.
That is the whole point of the stock market. The last losers
for newcomers to enter the market
(new cycle)
'' But this time it's different. "A lot of people every semester.
by a man. And it has always failed.
But when it's said by the masses,
you have to stop and think about it.
People with long experience in the marketsb knows very well.
Each period creates its own special conditions. Yes.
sometimes different things happen. But the result is never
unchanged. At some point the market ends its decline and
begins a new cycle.
With new ascents, he bad news is quickly forgotten. The loser loses and
the market continues on its path
Two years is a short time in financial markets. Especially
very, very short time in non-crypto markets.
Cycles are faster in crypto than in general markets
is taking place.
In classical stock markets, commodities, exchange rates
cycles spanning almost a human lifetime, now
today, the pace of life, the impact of technology and
shorter periods of time with the increase in the number of investors
down.
Another reason for the speed in crypto is that the market is 24/7 and
365 days of trading. Within a year
more transactions in crypto than in other markets
we see a lot of movement.
The crypto market is the most suitable for the speed of the new world (technologyfashion-fashion-obsolescence-consumption speed etc.) and the age
is the market that reflects its speed.
Fast technology, fast fashion, fast communication, fast people
relations, fast production-consumption; and of course fast
MARKET The increase in speed in every aspect of life is of course
it would also affect the markets.
There are good and bad sides to this; very fast losses and very
gains in a short time.
Reasons for rapid losses and gains:
a-) The market we are in is not regulated (rule-law),
b-) The fact that the technology is very new, that the technological part is
understood only by a certain segment of the world in general, again speaking for the world in general; a very minority group is capable of distinguishing right from wrong only with their own analysis
c-) The fact that transactions can be made very easily by anyone (young, old, rich, poor, educated, uneducated, women, men, etc.) regardless of class, gender, age, with just one phone call
What do I mean by the above?
a-) Lack of supervisory and regulatory rules;
There is no regulation that protects the investor in this market
.
In other words, our money is not protected or insured by any state-institution as of now
.
As you know, when there are no rules and there is big and easy money involved, malicious people end up here immediately. The fact that it's easy to issue tokens, to create and sell tokens , to market them, to advertise them is not subject to any rules. The limited number of shares on exchanges and too many rules for IPOs (according to crypto=) ) So there are coins coming out almost every minute. Exchanges can be easily opened in tax haven countries, Easy (low-cost) listing of coins on decentralized exchanges or shitcoin exchanges. It is easy to issue and sell tokens as if you were creating assets from scratch with no strings attached and it is very easy to sell during bull periods, There is no penalty for marketing and manipulating Shitcoins on Social Media.
Since it is the most risk-averse market in the world, rug-pulling is considered normal by investors
.
The ability to make big profits in a short period of time at a low cost by experienced malicious people
.
(We have seen many examples of the bull, which we have seen many examples of
before, hitting 4-5m USD with a cost of $ 50,000 and escaping -
advertising, shilling, etc.).
b-) Incompetent people believe in everything and enter into direct transactions without knowing and learning ( creating volume ) (small money - many transactions) Experienced investors make fewer transactions with more information and analysis (big money - few transactions), On the contrary, stock market advertisements that push
inadequate or new investors to make more transactions with sudden decisions and feelings, and
those who believe in the "more transactions, more money perception" to make more transactions (stock market = commission income)
Are altoins long-term or cyclical?
To put it crudely: The more shitcoin an Altcoin is, the more cyclical it is (i.e. earn during the trend and run when the trend ends) The more quality and proven the AltCoin is and the more it
solves a problem, the more long-term it is. Altcoin/btc to understand what I mean You can look at the pairs. Very few Altcoins
have been able to show a sustainable increase against BTC and only in certain periods.
Does the crypto market always have to grow in the long run?
"Yes" against paper currencies unless there are very harsh regulations or bans whether it is usd, eur, gbp or jpy.
The content of cycles:
Briefly: 3 periods Fall from peak > accumulation > rally
Bottom level base formation, saw (acc zone) zone, pre-rally, disbelief, aggressive rally.
Afterwards; repetition of the cycle according to the conditions of the coming days
.
Although the cycles follow one another, each cycle has its own are different from each other.
In other words, the downturn-accumulation-upturn periods may be of different lengths. Depending on the conditions of the period, there may have been a very long uptrend.
This may be followed by a very long and sharp correction. At the end of a weak trend, the downturn may be short
We will examine the details on the charts. When we enter the accumulation period, the price has realized the bottom formation and the products sold at the peak have started to be collected again at low cost by the big players (capital, whales, rich people, masons, 7 families ruling the world, whatever you want to call it:) ).
-This process can be long or short depending on the period.
(see chainlink)
Sometimes markets can recover quickly with a V shape (rapid decline-fast reaction)
(2020 march covid period). Sometimes we see a saw in a certain narrow price range at the bottom.
(Btc 2015-2016) The aim is to collect goods without raising the price and without making it obvious.
Continue reading -media- news- disappointment- disbelief. After the darkest moment of the night, the sun begins to rise After accumulation, it is difficult to predict when the movement
will turn upwards, but we can identify this zone with psychological and technical indicators.
-So we understand the cycle, where are we in the cycle?
Which pairs to understand?
>Btc/usd
>ETH/usd total, ETH/BTC
>XRP/BTC, LTC/BTC, BNB/BTC
>total2, total3 and others >major altcoins >dxy >vix index
>sp500, nasdaq, nikkei225,
>Altcoin Index
Understanding the cycle through Doge?
Dogecoin was launched in December 2013. In December this year, it will be 10 years old. That's a long time for the crypto market. We have witnessed 3 different cycles of Doge in these 10 years .
1. Trend > It took 476 minutes to fall from its peak to its lowest point. It then rose
from this point (not forming a new bottom) and accumulated.
This up and down process lasted until February 2017 This is where the "doge-style bullish" phase , as we will later call it, begins. In the area where this uptrend started, it gets support
from the 75-week moving average (75w sma) and the move begins.
Level 1: Peak zone
Level 2: Intermediate transition line (Important support-resistances are in place)
Level 3: Bottom and Accumulation bowl
2nd Trend > The uptrend that started in February 2017 continues until January 2018 with 2 stages.
The 3-level structure is also seen here. The decline from the peak to the low lasts 798 days. The upward break of the trend lasts 910.
Here, too, the region gets support from the 75-week moving average (75w sma-red line) and aggressive movement begins.We can say that the rise until May 2021 is again in 2 phases.
3rd Trend > May 2021 with the whole market The trend in Doge is also shifting to the downside. The lowest level we have seen so far in this trend is $0.05. It has been 883 days since the May 2021 peak. We are below the 75-week average, which is currently at $0.075.
What's important on this cycle chart of Dogecoin;
3-level structure
Time from peak > trend breakout
Position relative to 75-week moving average
2-stage aggressive
upward movements
starting after trend breakout.
Explaining through Doge is easy for both the teller
and the reader. It shows the cycle clearly.
I have prepared multiple doge charts,
you can examine them.
DOGE/BTC
Are there similarities? If so, do they always have to be similar?
Capturing similarities and using them meaningfully Similarity in coins does not always have to be in every product.
Different movements may have occurred in very different scenarios.
The important thing is to find the mathematically meaningful similarity and draw useful conclusions.
Similarity is not just a resemblance of shape when viewed from a distance.
It must be confirmed in many ways and temporally proportional.
Rsi, moving averages, etc. indicators should also be available. Just as technical analysis is not just 2 lines, similarity is not just a resemblance of shape. It should also be remembered that
Cycles and similarities are most meaningful on long-term charts.
Siacoin, digibyte, verge, xlm....
SIA/USD
Digibyte/USD
XVG(Verge)/USD
XLM/USD
Understanding the similarities between monero and iota.
IOTA/USD
MONERO(XMR)/USD
How similar they are in themselves, right?
I mean, how they've fed us a similar move for the 2nd time, and in some cases even the 3rd
time :D
Why are altcoins in the BUY ZONE and how do we identify it?
In this section, I will evaluate the subject according to my own experience and thoughts and
talk about how the market is doing.
I will do the review in 2 parts.
1- Psychological
2- Technical.
From the very beginning, I will say my opinion without beating around the bush :
We are at the bottom levels on behalf of major altcoins and in my opinion, we are at the stages to be purchased.
Is it the bottom? -I don't know.
Can it go lower? -Maybe, I don't know that either.
And I'm not trying to look for the exact bottom. The buy point is not a single place. Focus on buying zones instead of buying points.
I'm talking about the average cost between certain bands, the average cost in bad periods.
Let's expand a bit more; in my previous articles, I have talked a lot about the
bottom zones, what they are, how they feel. I repeat; we are not looking for a bottom.
Yes, we have more or less identified the bottom areas, what is the next step? Patience and good psychology management. Analyzing the history of the altcoin or the index itself , making comparisons. Using technical data correctly . And while doing this, being objective and not letting our emotions get in the way. It is our "emotions" that will hurt us the most in these bad zones and will knock us out of the game . This is the area to focus on projects.
Projects that will exist in the future with fundamental analysis should be selected in these regions. The same goes for new projects . Time for discovery!
- As we say: "Look at the coin, it has made 200X from this time to this time.";
You should know that in order to make 200x, you need to buy from these feared regions.
Don't expect positive news in these areas. News at the lows is bad ( to break hope), news at the highs is good (to keep the euphoria going). The informed investor comes to the market in bad areas, the unconscious and new investor comes to the market at the top.
2017-2018 crypto, 2022 crypto are the best examples.
There is an expression: "Ignore the noise!" This is how I do it. Ignore the noise The lows and highs are noisy times with lots of information pollution,
where everyone is talking, false information is spread, and everyone repeats each other.
I have observed that there are unleveled discussions and that people (influencers) on social media are discussing prices. etc) fighting with each other. If you have survived up to this point, it is shorter from here.
Don't underestimate the cycles and study them carefully (math).
> What if this time it happens differently? What if the circumstances are different and the decline lasts longer? What if this time it doesn't go up at all?
These questions don't come to your mind during the bull process. Because this is how the market works, you are not independent of it .
When it's going up, you always think it will go higher and higher, and you don't think about the fall. You are happy, you think you will gain more. The fall is the opposite.
Your psychology, which has been worn out for a long time in that downward spiral, prevents
you from seeing
the reality
.
These sentences describing the psychology of the business are not something that few people know in secret.
On the contrary, it is information that has been publicly available for many years since the stock markets have existed
.
The difficult part is the application and self-management.
For example;
An Altcoin (non-scam, continuing as a project) that falls from $ 100 and reaches $ 5
levels can be cheap provided that it is supported by technical data. Yes, there may be a possibility that this Altcoin may fall to 3$. But still, $5 is a good buying level.
Let's repeat, it fell from 100 >> you bought it at $5 >>> then it bottomed at $3 >> and
reached $50 in the new cycle. A successful purchase. You don't realize it in those
days, you wait patiently and reap the rewards when you reach your target. When the coin is at $3, there will always be those who will target lower levels, who will say not to buy in this area .
This has always been the case in the past. In December 2018 , when Bitcoin dropped to $3200, there was a very famous $1800 level that everyone was waiting for.
Likewise, when Bitcoin hit $3900 during the covid period in March 2020 , lower levels were expected. But it didn't happen, and I saw those who waited jumped on the train at higher prices later, while others were completely out of the loop and missed out on great opportunities.
No one can collect a product, a coin at a single price , it is not possible for anyone.
When we look technically; yes,
there are still lower levels, this is true. But none of us know where the bottom and the most
favorable point is. We only make predictions with the data we have.
I would like to add, don't look for certainty. Be ready for unpredictable outcomes.
Leaving wiggle room makes you more successful and resilient.
You are here to make money and you have to be resilient
. It' s not easy, it's hard, but it's possible. Let's move on to the technical part.
Time to put our psychological observations into math!
The data I use the most. Cyclical analysis, average decline times during bear
season, total, total2, total3, others indc., ETH/BTC,
Altcoin charts with monthly, 1 and 2-week candles, on-chain data, indicators (many) etc...
These are the indicators I use. The most important ones are RSI, LMACD, Moving averages. The others are a bit more detailed and capture something different
.
Let's start with Total2 Marketcap.
It has been 707 days since the TOP
I have shown 707 days on the chart. I am looking at where these 707 days coincide with the peak in the previous cycle
Yes, more or less at the end of the downtrend. I don't expect it to be exactly the same,
I'm looking for similarities and that's enough. Remember it doesn't have to be exactly the same
Also, there is a "Gaussian Channel" on the chart
Others Marketcap (Altcoins)
Bitcoin /// “Does history repeat itself or not?”
Now we may be thinking about this. We may have seen In the cycle, "there was another bottom, that is, a little bit lower , and then it started to bull".
So does it have to be like that now? I don't know that . So what can I do?
I'm mostly in altcoins and have a small amount of cash. If that drop comes, I'll buy with the last of my cash . If it doesn't and it goes up from here, what I already have will take me to the top.
People think. Is there anything lower? Then I'll sell all I have and buy it all again when it falls . FOR ME: No way . It is a gamble and a move I would not make.
The decision is up to you. Everyone's trading strategy, perception of risk and supply of moves are different. It doesn't suit me. What I know is that the uptrend will start again and these days will be behind us. What I don't know is when this accumulation process will end. It is one thing if you are a professional in trading , I am talking more about a non-pro style. If you follow the charts and articles I share, you know more or less how I think. Total3 Marketcap. Actually, it's not that different. Let's analyze it anyway.
Others Marketcap (The entire market excluding the top 10 coins). As you can see here, we are close to a breakout. This could happen all at once in the coming weeks. It could be
rejected and push this process forward by 1-2 months. But Nothing changes for me after the breakthrough.
Those who wait 2 years have to wait 2 months more.
When I examine it ONLY TECHNICALLY
POLKADOT VS ETH
ALGORAND
CHZ
CARDANO
MANA(DECENTRALAND)
LTC(LITECOIN)
MATIC (POLYGON)
I've looked at a lot of technical data on these coins and found them to be
favorable, but it's enough to simply see them with the RSI level. Remember,
favorable does not mean that there is no possibility of a lower level. I'm not saying
to go out and buy these coins without question.
There are old altcoins that show cyclicality very well, be sure to examine them in detail. I prefer a colorful visual style for easy understanding. You can simply understand where we are in the cycle digibyte DGB/USD a very good example of similarity siacoin SC/USD
Another good example for understanding cycles
XRP/USD
XRP/BTC
XRP/BTC. We're in the last zone of the big structure.
In fact, this formation is a "bigger version" of the previous one in 2013-2017 . Don't focus on
the tiny possibility of a fall at the bottom . Focus on the big area above
Ethereum ETH/USD and ETH/BTC are the leading pair of Altcoins.
ETH/USD
Another version ETH/USD
ETH/BTC
It is important to examine the most important parity Major Altcoins in the BTC parity ETH/BTC,
where we will follow the altcoin rises. When we examine it in the long term, a large triangle has formed. This triangle will break upwards from the last region, but tomorrow but weeks later. In ETH/BTC, I am not focused on the small area at the end, but on the gains that will be experienced after the breakout (2024-2025 Bull Season).
LTC/BTC
MATIC/BTC
I'm slowly finishing the cycles part.
It's not something where you get a return on your investment tomorrow . It requires patience and sound psychology. You cannot make money in one day like day trading. You even have to be willing to spend a long time without earning.
Don't wear yourself out with thoughts like ; why is it constantly falling like this,
I have no patience anymore , this will not work . If you want to make a profit, you have to deal with the market . No one told you it would be easy .
Maybe you are tired of the same words, but there is not much time left, every
decline from now on is a buying opportunity in Bitcoin and major altcoins.
There is probably a lot more to write, but the summary is in the first paragraphs. I will not prolong it.
Thank you for reading..