MTGOX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
1637 8 8
Bitcoin             - I hear about this earlier this year and just ignored it. I still do not fully understand the instrument not do I plan to trade it immediately, though will keep it under review. However, from charting perspective, it is very interesting and comparable to many stock or instruments that started their early history and experienced price progression. To say the least it is fairly volatile and probably still lack the volume to help proper price development. However, as you can see it would appear that we might have wave 3 top in the spike high and are retracing or congesting in wave 4. This could take the form of a triangle as outlined in pink above ( to consume more time before able to stage a next move)or more likely a running flat where the normal zigzag correction forms lower low and lower high before reverting to the upside, where as in here we could have that still forming higher high but part of wave 4 correction. That would also fit the possible correlation to Dollar Index             which I have shown in the bottom window. My longer term Dollar Index             analysis suggest that in the next week or so we might make intermediate bottom and then retrace in possible abc zigzag to the upside which you attain the upside target of 82 - 83 area before reverting to downside. During this period I suspect the BTCUSD             will likewise trade in side way range. I know many of you will not agree with me and BTCUSD             may have some dynamics which I cannot appreciate from the chart and it is headed to the moon so to speak. Yet based on what can see could well be a good guide to future price projection however, unlike it might appear. I am willing to accept that due to short price history Elliot Wave analysis might be not possible. But still wish to point out possible development which could be very interesting. Any constrictive observations will be welcomed.
I am retiring this chart and whilst the potential retracement I anticipated never quite materialised, the longer term price of 600+ anticipated for completion of 5 wave cycle has been more than met and infact the 5 wave cycle is no where near being completed. The reason is because the wave 3 in very strong trend has the habit of extending multiple times as is the case with this one. Therefore I am updating the chart and republishing it with longer term outlook. Be sure to check it out.
Also, by the very nature of volatile price action and parabolic rise in to April high, it is little difficult to place it in perspective. So in the following chart I have price in log scale, and ignoring all else, except just focusing on the major swings, seem to confirm that we could be in major wave 4 congestion. This complex correction could nicely fit in with EW rule of alternation, in that wave 2 was simple zigzag confined to clear down trend channel. To contrast with that wave 4 is lot more complex and has more to follow. Based on Time Symmetry, I think we will continue in this till 08/12/2013. I would not get excited if we see any upswings as they will be limited and should see LL & LH developing as we see wave c of 4 form. Here is the chart
After some more price action it appears that overall price action could still be in potential triangle or running flat as pointed out above ans will likely take lot more time to complete than many expect. Here is an updated chart
Well done. After our discussion I am waiting on purchasing more for long-term storage. Previous spike likely did not retrace as much as it should've because of increased client download demand and potential purchasing interest out of China. Now that this demand is materializing, we are going slightly parabolic relative to previous. However, I think, a lot of that demand was already priced in. No idea how high this little burst will go, certainly convinced it should retrace. Considering the large Asian interest now however, it likely will not retrace as much as the definate bubble movement 6 months ago on a log scale.

As we progress through Bitcoin's maturity, the price may experience flare-ups closer together, as the demand and volume comes in waves of interest. Very exciting to be looking at the beginning stages of something that could be around for some time.
It is always interesting to see anothers opinion on something they have no vested interest in. So, I will be following this one. Well written brother.
Bravo! :)
Thanks, Dan. Solid forecast in my book...
Great work. I have heard your analysis regarding the lack of prior price to validate or Elliott read, so I am too will be watching closely. Sincerely, Beauty.
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