BTCUSD / 5600, 5400 / Hit 2 supports, bounce reload
TRADE: Short
ENTRY: 5900+
SL: +1.5%
TP1: 5600-support
TP2: 5400-support
MACD: bearish 2h, 4h, D (bullish 15m, 30m, 1h)
RSI: pretty neutral
AO: bearish 1h, 2h, 4h
volume: bearish
Shorted on friday/saturday at 6340-level 5x leverage 10BTC.
Saw great drops all weekend.
Exited a few at drops (5700-5800) and re-entered around 5900-6000 for some nice profit.
Market opening in US in a few hours.
Possible slight boost in morning but US economy is crashing.
Oil war as well with Russia.
Regardless if you think there is correlation, the US economy is in shutdown and we are all working at home. Schools, sports centers, theatres, shopping malls, and restaraunts = CLOSED (probably until summer, or later).
Europe is worse off, and most of Asia is only starting to get hit bad, and will continue to get worse, except a few countries like S.Korea that took care of it very seriously early on.
ASEAN 4th largest economy in the world is going into full out pandemic. Europe is already there and US is entering it.
Forecast for this week: exit at 5600 support; bounce on 5600; possible reload shorts at 5900; hard bounce on 5k-support. END TRADE.
There is huge volume there at 5k. I believe we will then rally back to 6k retest. If we break 6k within 2-3 waves we will hit 7k. If it fails more than 3 tests we go back down below 5k or lower.
Since I cant really tell whether a hard bounce on 5k means we would go lower, I am not going to reload shorts after the 5k bounce unless it is incredibly bearish on all signals.
I would wait instead for it to reject at 5600 on its way up 2x or more (doubtful, it doesnt look like a strong layer); or wait for it to break 5k and short at 4850 to ride down to 4200-3800 zone.
I look at 15m, 30m, 1h, and 2h while trading.
I look at 1h, 2h, 4h, D, W while trying to find a trade.
Indicators: MACD - EMA 13, 50, 100, 200, 300 - AO - RSI - OBV
I am in no way any kind of pro trader and am still learning.
This is not trading advice.
Comments welcome.
I am hoping for healthy bitcoin and believe bottoming at 4k level HIGHER than our previous monthly low (3800-level) would be generally very good for BTC, and put us on a strong fundamental for halvening.
It would also turn the majority of bears into bulls, including me (I am actually bullish on all crypto; but not in a complete economic recession + pandemic).
I still believe from now, after halvening, and until at least Fall'2020 (august/september) depending on recession and coronavirus outcomes - we are in a bear market and will fluctuate between 5k bottoms and 10k tops.
For bitcoin to rally higher requires consumer investment, retail investment, funds investment, and more practical everyday payment usage.
So far this pandemic has shown that cash is still king and people are severely suffering. Crypto is the last thing on people's minds.
Unless something truly fundamental happens in world economy, such as crypto saving the economy, replacing fiat in a big way, becoming a safe haven asset, etc - this is the outlook for crypto for awhile IMO.
None of these things have happened yet, despite our longterm desires for them to.
Good luck!
ENTRY: 5900+
SL: +1.5%
TP1: 5600-support
TP2: 5400-support
MACD: bearish 2h, 4h, D (bullish 15m, 30m, 1h)
RSI: pretty neutral
AO: bearish 1h, 2h, 4h
volume: bearish
Shorted on friday/saturday at 6340-level 5x leverage 10BTC.
Saw great drops all weekend.
Exited a few at drops (5700-5800) and re-entered around 5900-6000 for some nice profit.
Market opening in US in a few hours.
Possible slight boost in morning but US economy is crashing.
Oil war as well with Russia.
Regardless if you think there is correlation, the US economy is in shutdown and we are all working at home. Schools, sports centers, theatres, shopping malls, and restaraunts = CLOSED (probably until summer, or later).
Europe is worse off, and most of Asia is only starting to get hit bad, and will continue to get worse, except a few countries like S.Korea that took care of it very seriously early on.
ASEAN 4th largest economy in the world is going into full out pandemic. Europe is already there and US is entering it.
Forecast for this week: exit at 5600 support; bounce on 5600; possible reload shorts at 5900; hard bounce on 5k-support. END TRADE.
There is huge volume there at 5k. I believe we will then rally back to 6k retest. If we break 6k within 2-3 waves we will hit 7k. If it fails more than 3 tests we go back down below 5k or lower.
Since I cant really tell whether a hard bounce on 5k means we would go lower, I am not going to reload shorts after the 5k bounce unless it is incredibly bearish on all signals.
I would wait instead for it to reject at 5600 on its way up 2x or more (doubtful, it doesnt look like a strong layer); or wait for it to break 5k and short at 4850 to ride down to 4200-3800 zone.
I look at 15m, 30m, 1h, and 2h while trading.
I look at 1h, 2h, 4h, D, W while trying to find a trade.
Indicators: MACD - EMA 13, 50, 100, 200, 300 - AO - RSI - OBV
I am in no way any kind of pro trader and am still learning.
This is not trading advice.
Comments welcome.
I am hoping for healthy bitcoin and believe bottoming at 4k level HIGHER than our previous monthly low (3800-level) would be generally very good for BTC, and put us on a strong fundamental for halvening.
It would also turn the majority of bears into bulls, including me (I am actually bullish on all crypto; but not in a complete economic recession + pandemic).
I still believe from now, after halvening, and until at least Fall'2020 (august/september) depending on recession and coronavirus outcomes - we are in a bear market and will fluctuate between 5k bottoms and 10k tops.
For bitcoin to rally higher requires consumer investment, retail investment, funds investment, and more practical everyday payment usage.
So far this pandemic has shown that cash is still king and people are severely suffering. Crypto is the last thing on people's minds.
Unless something truly fundamental happens in world economy, such as crypto saving the economy, replacing fiat in a big way, becoming a safe haven asset, etc - this is the outlook for crypto for awhile IMO.
None of these things have happened yet, despite our longterm desires for them to.
Good luck!
so now looks like our upper bound is headed to 6750-7k area.
from there i believe it will short.
the volume going up is enough to push it to next resistance just BARELY but there is no way its breaking past.
if it does, then we short at next resistance 7.7k area.
godamn FED!