By the way, this publication is NOT SAYING WE'RE NOT FALLING AGAIN. BY NO MEANS IS THIS PUBLICATION EVEN IMPLYING THAT. I actually said in previous publications I'm expecting another drop in March to Test Support.
The purpose of that video publication was ONLY to provide an explanation of events that occur within phases A, B, C and D. I did not get into Phase E in that publication. I think I said either in the video or in comments section below the video that I'm "not" saying the price action will play out exactly as depicted in that "example." It was "only" intended as an example of a Wyckoff Accumulation Schematic #1.
If anyone is asking what must NOT occur for this schematic to come to pass, I would say, we must NOT fall BELOW $2,868.65. If we fall below $3,122 WHILE staying above $2,868.65 on this next trip down, there's a good chance THAT move down may likely be our Wyckoff Spring and our accumulation is completed. Which would mean it will likely go up with a Sign of Strength to test $6k shortly after a move below $3,122 WHILE STAYING ABOVE $2,868.65.
I'm leaning more towards a drop below $3,122 not occurring until some time in August or September (shortly after the Litecoin Block halving) just as we did after the LiteCoin Block Halving in 2015. However, with the creation of OTC exchanges in 2018, this allowed large interest to accumulate large blocks of crypto much easier than in the past on retail exchanges. Which could explain a Wyckoff Spring occurring just BEFORE the LiteCoin Block Halving. Also, the fact we have falling well below the 200-EMA on the Weekly in 2019 more so than where we were in 2015 could also be a reason for a potential Wyckoff Spring occurring just BEFORE the LiteCoin Block Halving.
Let me know if you would rather I created a video publication for it if this is not coming across in a way that can be easily understood. I'm not sure if I'm getting my point across or not.
A move substantially below $2,868.65 would INVALIDATE that schematic and also confirm we were still in "Distribution."
I give this a fair chance of happening and here’s why.
The rhetoric on TV about the “bottom” has intensified. There are literally at least one post per day arguing from different angles about the bottom.
That’s not what happens at the “true bottom”. At the true bottom Bitcoin is dead and the overall mood is such that all the talk about bottom is long in the past. It’s not like that today. How do I know ? I lived through previous “bottoms”. I have seen and heard the silence.
Previous cycles were shorter. It took less time for people to give up on bitcoin. The hope is still alive for bitcoin today. Bear market is feeding and will be feeding on that till the vestiges of hope are extinguished. Bakkt will allow an easier shorting capability as well. This is not simply a crypto winter. It’s a crypto ice age.
The thaw will happen. Crypto can not be uninvented. Time frames have shifted and that’s why a trip to very deep levels is possible.
Thanks for sharing, Boris.
I still contend we're in accumulation of course. A "large" part of my believing this has to do with the Litecoin Block Halving approaching at a similar month as 2015. It occurred in July, 2015 and expected for August, 2019. They both were in accumulation in 2015 in anticipation for the LITECOIN Block halving and are doing so this year (2019) in my opinion.
I see your point mentioned in your first post. But I also get plenty of people saying otherwise. I can't tell you how many I see on youtube saying we're falling to $2,100 to $2,400 price range. I actually think they will get left behind. My opinion of course... Only time will tell if we fall below $2,868.65. If we do fall below it, it depends on how much we fall below it AND what occurs immediately after it falls below it in order for an Accumulation Schematic to be "invalidated."
6,000 had the signs of being a bottom but people didn’t buy. 3,000 has the signs being a bottom but same story. Goal posts shift lower. At 2000 they will shift them even lower till it’s so low they will say, it’s just not worth it, maybe at $2 I will buy some.
I remember begging my coworkers to buy at $200 in 2015. It was too high.