See if I Can Convince Skeptics, "The Bottom is In." ; )

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
If this doesn't convince you, let me know and I'll see if I can elaborate more on the 2-Week and 1-Week Time Frames to TRY to convince you. ; ) You might want to check out other publications on the same subject I've linked you to (below) in "Related Ideas."

By the way, this publication is NOT SAYING WE'RE NOT FALLING AGAIN. BY NO MEANS IS THIS PUBLICATION EVEN IMPLYING THAT. I actually said in previous publications I'm expecting another drop in March to Test Support.
Comment: Bitcoin History from Beginning to Present Day using Wyckoff Method:

Comment: When I say, "BOTTOM," that implies we have formed a "BASE" for the purpose of accumulation. In a Wyckoff accumulation schematic, we anticipate a drop on low volume just below the lower boundary of the trading range to identify our Wyckoff Spring. That Wyckoff Spring may begin at $2,868.65. Meaning, I do not expect us to go below that price point for our Wyckoff Spring in August/September. In the meantime, we will continue within a $1,000 trading range ( Between $3,200 and $4,200) for the purpose of accumulation. We should then expect a drop below the lower boundary ($3,200) to mark the beginning of a Wyckoff Spring that will lead into an Up-Thrust and Sign of Strength to $6k+. That drop below $3,200 is "NOT" what I consider bottom. When I say, "Bottom is in," I'm implying the Bear market of distribution IS OVER and we are now in accumulation before heading into a Sign of Strength and many months of Bull market.

The purpose of that video publication was ONLY to provide an explanation of events that occur within phases A, B, C and D. I did not get into Phase E in that publication. I think I said either in the video or in comments section below the video that I'm "not" saying the price action will play out exactly as depicted in that "example." It was "only" intended as an example of a Wyckoff Accumulation Schematic #1.

If anyone is asking what must NOT occur for this schematic to come to pass, I would say, we must NOT fall BELOW $2,868.65. If we fall below $3,122 WHILE staying above $2,868.65 on this next trip down, there's a good chance THAT move down may likely be our Wyckoff Spring and our accumulation is completed. Which would mean it will likely go up with a Sign of Strength to test $6k shortly after a move below $3,122 WHILE STAYING ABOVE $2,868.65.

I'm leaning more towards a drop below $3,122 not occurring until some time in August or September (shortly after the Litecoin Block halving) just as we did after the LiteCoin Block Halving in 2015. However, with the creation of OTC exchanges in 2018, this allowed large interest to accumulate large blocks of crypto much easier than in the past on retail exchanges. Which could explain a Wyckoff Spring occurring just BEFORE the LiteCoin Block Halving. Also, the fact we have falling well below the 200-EMA on the Weekly in 2019 more so than where we were in 2015 could also be a reason for a potential Wyckoff Spring occurring just BEFORE the LiteCoin Block Halving.
Comment: So yes, there are arguments that can be made to potentially support a Wyckoff Spring occurring just BEFORE the LiteCoin Block Halving. If we DO NOT fall below $3,122 on this next drop BEFORE the LiteCoin Block Halving and still go up for another Simple Rally to the Preliminary Support Range (around $4,200), we will likely fall back down for our Wyckoff Spring on that drop down to test support. That's also when I would expect a drop just below $3,122 WHILE REMAINING ABOVE $2,868.65.

Let me know if you would rather I created a video publication for it if this is not coming across in a way that can be easily understood. I'm not sure if I'm getting my point across or not.

A move substantially below $2,868.65 would INVALIDATE that schematic and also confirm we were still in "Distribution."
Comment: "BOTTOM" Defined in the following video:

Thanks a ton for your contribution. Check my post on how I see my EW count taking BTC to wave 3, our potential retrace to 786 fibonacci before that and then maybe a final move near $4800:
I like it
+1 Reply
“A move substantially below $2,868.65 would INVALIDATE that schematic and also confirm we were still in "Distribution."

I give this a fair chance of happening and here’s why.

The rhetoric on TV about the “bottom” has intensified. There are literally at least one post per day arguing from different angles about the bottom.

That’s not what happens at the “true bottom”. At the true bottom Bitcoin is dead and the overall mood is such that all the talk about bottom is long in the past. It’s not like that today. How do I know ? I lived through previous “bottoms”. I have seen and heard the silence.

Previous cycles were shorter. It took less time for people to give up on bitcoin. The hope is still alive for bitcoin today. Bear market is feeding and will be feeding on that till the vestiges of hope are extinguished. Bakkt will allow an easier shorting capability as well. This is not simply a crypto winter. It’s a crypto ice age.

The thaw will happen. Crypto can not be uninvented. Time frames have shifted and that’s why a trip to very deep levels is possible.
+1 Reply

Thanks for sharing, Boris.

I still contend we're in accumulation of course. A "large" part of my believing this has to do with the Litecoin Block Halving approaching at a similar month as 2015. It occurred in July, 2015 and expected for August, 2019. They both were in accumulation in 2015 in anticipation for the LITECOIN Block halving and are doing so this year (2019) in my opinion.

+1 Reply
BorisPoff WyckoffMode
@WyckoffMode, I agree we are in accumulation phase. Agree as in I’m increasing my positions on dips. I’m prepared to go much lower but as you pointed out there are many signs of the bottom and not accumulating would be irresponsible.
+2 Reply

I see your point mentioned in your first post. But I also get plenty of people saying otherwise. I can't tell you how many I see on youtube saying we're falling to $2,100 to $2,400 price range. I actually think they will get left behind. My opinion of course... Only time will tell if we fall below $2,868.65. If we do fall below it, it depends on how much we fall below it AND what occurs immediately after it falls below it in order for an Accumulation Schematic to be "invalidated."

; )
+1 Reply
BorisPoff WyckoffMode
@WyckoffMode, Amen brother. Good times ahead
+1 Reply
BorisPoff WyckoffMode
@WyckoffMode, and you are correct, again from my experience, on people getting left behind. It’s a psychology thing, has little to do with actual prices.

6,000 had the signs of being a bottom but people didn’t buy. 3,000 has the signs being a bottom but same story. Goal posts shift lower. At 2000 they will shift them even lower till it’s so low they will say, it’s just not worth it, maybe at $2 I will buy some.

I remember begging my coworkers to buy at $200 in 2015. It was too high.
+1 Reply
BTCUSD bottomed+soon altcoin season :D
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