Fundamentally, we have a big difficulty adjustment recently, a big drop of -18% recently an another one coming up at -7%. That’s a big drop which comes as a result of miner’s dropping out.
So Who’s dropping out?
As covered in previous articles, the majority of the miners are unprofitable with the BTC reward squashed in half and the operating costs doubled.
If we take a look at the miner’s profitability using the data provided by ASIC Miner Value, every mining machine apart from Antminer S19 pro (110TH) is unprofitable as of right now. If we take a look at the statistics, there’s a small number of people in the US who have the S19 pro.
Miner’s from Russia are in the medium range of profitability, with a little to no profit.
Even China is in the medium range, even though they have the lowest cost of electricity, and the operating costs are way lower compared to other countries.
So you can see that the miners from the western world (Western Europe, North America, Canada… etc.) are getting hurt.
Should this continue, miners could be the biggest sellers of Bitcoin , the biggest selling pressure could come from miners and exchanges selling their fees into fiat, which could further dump the price.
Technically, we haven’t changed much.
Key levels are still respected, the $10,000 resistance is having the biggest impact on the price. This is the third week in a row that BTC fails to break above the $10,000 resistance.
The Outer was broken 2 weeks ago with a huge wick that tested the $10,000 resistance and immediately reversed back down. In order for this breakout to be valid, BTC had to take out the breakout candle’s wick – thus closing above $10,000. This isn’t the case, as we failed to do so for two weeks in a row.
Another thing that correlates with the and this is the $9500-$10,000 area, I’ve been saying for quite some time now that this is a huge liquidity area where the selling pressure is so high, and this week’s candle proved just that.
Chart Structure is another crucial thing that we have to keep in mind. As mentioned BTC on the weekly time-frame is in a downtrend, continuously forming lower-highs and lower-lows. The general rule of thumb is that the price will continue to form LH’s and LL’s until it breaks the previous LH in order to completely change the trend direction. BTC’s previous LH on the weekly is located just under $10,500, until we break above this level, we’ll be on a downturn, thus another LL is underway.
The final conclusion of the upcoming week is that as long as we stay under $10,000, we should be looking out for another retest of $8000-$7500 support.