Looking like we are far from being out of the woods...
There was a clear signal that we were going to experience a dump when the Red RSI made contact with the Green as it descended in the 2d as the Energy was so close to 50. We new that the next candle we would see the Energy drop below 50. This was our warning signal.
Near Term: 1d, 2d, 3d, 4d
In all this group of timeframes we have seen the Energy drop below 50 subsequent to the Red RSI making contact with the Green as it was falling. If the Green (as is likely) closes below 50 in the 2d, our first target will be in the region of $42k - this is roughly where we expect the Bollinger Band basis to be at this time when the current candle closes in 9 hours.
In the 3d if the Green EMA closes below 50 we can see the price action fall to the proximity of the BB basis (currently $38643 but rising)
In the 4d if the Green EMA closes below 50 we can see the price action fall to the proximity of the BB basis (currently $35556 but rising)
In the 5d if the Green EMA closes below 50 we can see the price action fall to the proximity of the BB basis (currently $32326 but rising) However although the Red RSI has made contact with the Green EMA as it falls it has not closed like this yet. So currently not confirmed.
The only way we can see a chance of this position changing is if the Green can get above the Energy in the scalping group of timeframes 6, 12, 23, 45 and then we would need to see further signals to confirm. We would need to see the Energy win downward pressure races currently between the 12 & 23.
We currently have a downward pressure race between the Energy in the 12 & the Red RSI in the 23.
When the Red RSI fell below 50 in the 12m a downward pressure race was triggered. In order for upward pressure to resume, we first need to see the Energy in the 12m CLOSE above 50 before the Red RSI in the 23 CROSSES below 50. If the Energy does win the race, we need to see the Green MA higher than the Energy in at least the preceding three preceding halved timeframes from the timeframe in which the race was triggered. If the Red RSI wins we then have a race between the Energy in the 23 and the Red RSI in the 45 etc.
We would need to see this upward pressure then continue to cascade into higher timeframes and the Red RSI move above 50. Currently it looks like the Red RSI in the 23 will win the race and we will see a continuation of downward pressure.
On initial view it looks like we could see downward pressure continue well into March.
This is a very quick view and I'll try and update as I get a chance.
I have to point out as previously mentioned in previous publications, these markets can change with very little notice. These changes initially manifest themselves in the lower timeframes and propagate up through the timeframes. Unless you are day trading, you cannot benefit from these early warning signals. I also cannot provide constant updates because I simply don't have time. As a result if anybody opens a position, please do not rely on me to provide signals to close.
As always - this is not financial advice but just my view of current market dynamics.
One has to be aware that analyses are done on the basis of what the indicators are saying at the time and things can change. It is important to always monitor the scalping group of timeframes as we will see changes propagate up from there.
Trade safe
aBL
Near Term: 1d, 2d, 3d, 4d
In all this group of timeframes we have seen the Energy drop below 50 subsequent to the Red RSI making contact with the Green as it was falling. If the Green (as is likely) closes below 50 in the 2d, our first target will be in the region of $42k - this is roughly where we expect the Bollinger Band basis to be at this time when the current candle closes in 9 hours.
In the 3d if the Green EMA closes below 50 we can see the price action fall to the proximity of the BB basis (currently $38643 but rising)
In the 4d if the Green EMA closes below 50 we can see the price action fall to the proximity of the BB basis (currently $35556 but rising)
In the 5d if the Green EMA closes below 50 we can see the price action fall to the proximity of the BB basis (currently $32326 but rising) However although the Red RSI has made contact with the Green EMA as it falls it has not closed like this yet. So currently not confirmed.
The only way we can see a chance of this position changing is if the Green can get above the Energy in the scalping group of timeframes 6, 12, 23, 45 and then we would need to see further signals to confirm. We would need to see the Energy win downward pressure races currently between the 12 & 23.
We currently have a downward pressure race between the Energy in the 12 & the Red RSI in the 23.
When the Red RSI fell below 50 in the 12m a downward pressure race was triggered. In order for upward pressure to resume, we first need to see the Energy in the 12m CLOSE above 50 before the Red RSI in the 23 CROSSES below 50. If the Energy does win the race, we need to see the Green MA higher than the Energy in at least the preceding three preceding halved timeframes from the timeframe in which the race was triggered. If the Red RSI wins we then have a race between the Energy in the 23 and the Red RSI in the 45 etc.
We would need to see this upward pressure then continue to cascade into higher timeframes and the Red RSI move above 50. Currently it looks like the Red RSI in the 23 will win the race and we will see a continuation of downward pressure.
On initial view it looks like we could see downward pressure continue well into March.
This is a very quick view and I'll try and update as I get a chance.
I have to point out as previously mentioned in previous publications, these markets can change with very little notice. These changes initially manifest themselves in the lower timeframes and propagate up through the timeframes. Unless you are day trading, you cannot benefit from these early warning signals. I also cannot provide constant updates because I simply don't have time. As a result if anybody opens a position, please do not rely on me to provide signals to close.
As always - this is not financial advice but just my view of current market dynamics.
One has to be aware that analyses are done on the basis of what the indicators are saying at the time and things can change. It is important to always monitor the scalping group of timeframes as we will see changes propagate up from there.
Trade safe
aBL
Comment:
We are currently in a downward pressure race between the Energy in the 12h and the Red RSI in the daily
Comment:
The Green EMA is now below 50, price action headed for the initial $42k area - in the vicinity of the BB basis
Comment:
I apologise - the above statement was misleading. We need to close in 1 day and 15 hours for the price action in the 2d to fall to the proximity of the BB basis....
Comment:
Just a quick update to point out that the Energy in the 45 has just won the downward pressure race against the Red RSI in the 90.
When the Red RSI fell below 50 in the 45m a downward pressure race was triggered. In order to see a reversal to upward pressure, we first need to see the Energy in the 45m CLOSE above 50 before the Red RSI in the 90 CROSSES below 50. If the Energy does win the race, we need to see the Green MA higher than the Energy in at least the preceding three preceding halved timeframes from the timeframe in which the race was triggered. If the Red RSI wins we then have a race between the Energy in the 90 and the Red RSI in the 3h etc.
However it was as near as dammit a tie. Although the Red RSI in the 90 has not yet crossed below 50, we need to see the Green EMA higher than the Energy in the 3 preceding timeframes; 6, 12, 23. The Green is higher in the 6 & 12 which is a good sign but not in the 23. So this is still unconclusive. We need to keep an eye on the Red RSI in the 90 to see if it can turn back up. If it continues down, we will see another race triggered between the Energy in the 90 and the Red RSI in the 3h. The charts are currently showing indecision. We also still have the unresolved downward pressure race between the Energy in the 12h and the Red RSI in the daily.
To summarise:
We are still overall Bearish.
We are starting from the bottom to look for the early signs to potentially support reversal to upward pressure. If we do see the initial signs of upward pressure in the scalping group of TFs (6, 12, 23, 45) this is by no means conclusive. This would just be an indication that some of the conditions are in place to support reversal. We need to see upward pressure indications propagating up through the timeframes.
So really the point is: until we see these indicators, we do not have a chance of reversal to upward pressure.
We can see the Green going up strong with the Energy in the 45 and the Red RSI has made contact with the Green as it rises, the Red RSI and Blue LSMA in the 23 are heading toward 50 with the Red RSI about to cross, this is a good sign. If the Red RSI in the 23 can close above 50 we have a chance of seeing the price action head up toward the White/Aqua upper BBs around $50-51k, and we could possibly see the Blue LSMA turn up in the 45. These would all be requirements for a reversal.
When the Red RSI fell below 50 in the 45m a downward pressure race was triggered. In order to see a reversal to upward pressure, we first need to see the Energy in the 45m CLOSE above 50 before the Red RSI in the 90 CROSSES below 50. If the Energy does win the race, we need to see the Green MA higher than the Energy in at least the preceding three preceding halved timeframes from the timeframe in which the race was triggered. If the Red RSI wins we then have a race between the Energy in the 90 and the Red RSI in the 3h etc.
However it was as near as dammit a tie. Although the Red RSI in the 90 has not yet crossed below 50, we need to see the Green EMA higher than the Energy in the 3 preceding timeframes; 6, 12, 23. The Green is higher in the 6 & 12 which is a good sign but not in the 23. So this is still unconclusive. We need to keep an eye on the Red RSI in the 90 to see if it can turn back up. If it continues down, we will see another race triggered between the Energy in the 90 and the Red RSI in the 3h. The charts are currently showing indecision. We also still have the unresolved downward pressure race between the Energy in the 12h and the Red RSI in the daily.
To summarise:
We are still overall Bearish.
We are starting from the bottom to look for the early signs to potentially support reversal to upward pressure. If we do see the initial signs of upward pressure in the scalping group of TFs (6, 12, 23, 45) this is by no means conclusive. This would just be an indication that some of the conditions are in place to support reversal. We need to see upward pressure indications propagating up through the timeframes.
So really the point is: until we see these indicators, we do not have a chance of reversal to upward pressure.
We can see the Green going up strong with the Energy in the 45 and the Red RSI has made contact with the Green as it rises, the Red RSI and Blue LSMA in the 23 are heading toward 50 with the Red RSI about to cross, this is a good sign. If the Red RSI in the 23 can close above 50 we have a chance of seeing the price action head up toward the White/Aqua upper BBs around $50-51k, and we could possibly see the Blue LSMA turn up in the 45. These would all be requirements for a reversal.
Comment:
With regard to the requirement that the Green should be higher than the Energy in the 3 preceding timeframes. This condition has now been satisfied. This means we do have the potential to start cascading upward pressure to higher timeframes
Comment:
Sorry - I should have clarified.
I was referring to the Race between the Energy in the 45 and the Red RSI in the 90. Although the Red RSI in the 90 is below 50 - just.. the Energy in that timeframe has closed above 50. We need to see if the upward pressure can cascade into higher timeframes
I was referring to the Race between the Energy in the 45 and the Red RSI in the 90. Although the Red RSI in the 90 is below 50 - just.. the Energy in that timeframe has closed above 50. We need to see if the upward pressure can cascade into higher timeframes
Comment:
The Green in the daily has also started to turn up, if this continues we could see the Green in the 2d pull back above 50. I am now of the belief, particularly in consideration of the fact that the Red RSI is above 80 in the 2d that the price action will not continue down to the proximity of the BB basis. We are beginning to see some encouraging signals.
Comment:
Well, our glimmer of hope was short lived, currently the Energy is higher than the Green EMA in all of the scalping group TFs.
It looks like downward pressure is set to continue.
Also of some concern, the Red RSI in the 4d has closed making contact with the Green as the Green is falling and as a result the Energy has crossed below 50. If we close like this in 1d & 3h we are at risk of an extended period of downward pressure. We also as previously indicated are at risk at the same time of seeing the Red RSI in the 2d fall below 80 and the Green EMA closing below 50.
The only way we can avert this downward pressure is if we can start seeing the Green get above the Energy in the scalping TFs and cascade up through to the higher TFs. This however is not currently looking promising.
It looks like downward pressure is set to continue.
Also of some concern, the Red RSI in the 4d has closed making contact with the Green as the Green is falling and as a result the Energy has crossed below 50. If we close like this in 1d & 3h we are at risk of an extended period of downward pressure. We also as previously indicated are at risk at the same time of seeing the Red RSI in the 2d fall below 80 and the Green EMA closing below 50.
The only way we can avert this downward pressure is if we can start seeing the Green get above the Energy in the scalping TFs and cascade up through to the higher TFs. This however is not currently looking promising.
Comment:
The Red RSI in the 3h has turned down, the Blue LSMA and Red RSI have made contact with the Green as it falls in both the 3h & 6h. We are at risk of the price action falling between the Aqua/Orange lower Bollinger Bands in both these timeframes. (Currently between $43 - 47K) The Blue LSMA is also falling in the 6h and the BBs are continuing to expand. There is a possibility of the price action accelerating down with the expanding BBs in the 6h and could even wick down below the lower Red BB at $39714 currently.
This is consistent with the fact that we are likely to see a lower low in the 6h as the Energy is now higher than the Green EMA.
This is consistent with the fact that we are likely to see a lower low in the 6h as the Energy is now higher than the Green EMA.
