ronfkingswanson
Short

This time it's different™ — or is the old bear still in charge?

BTCE:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
2760 9 29
Yeah, yeah, I know all the reasons why things are different now, and we did actually bust this fork already, but you'll have to forgive me for not reading the exact same signs that have proceeded the bear market waterfalls for almost 2 years now.

I've been using this same damn chart for too long. I'm sure it's invalidated by a bunch of stuff, but that stubborn 200MA has been the harbinger of many a selloff. Yes we got above it for a bit, but then promptly fell right thru hard. Judging by history, we're just rounding our first dead cat bounce...

We could have a date with $125 soon. would be a nice clean return to the median of this old fork and the historic floor right before the Nov 2014 bubble rally.
Any update on this? :)
Reply
Still boring sideways, but still under the MA. No clear winner here yet.
+1 Reply
well bulls have brought us back to kiss the underside of the 200MA, but we're still in a bear market until we get above and *stay above* the MA
+2 Reply
Maybe this time it is different..



We're still above the main bear trendline, with some evidence that there is a new trend up. I'd be a little wary of bear trap, although I grant that the whole blocksize debate is a little unnerving. I'd say until price is conclusively below $200 still reason for optimism that bear market is over.
+1 Reply
some asked what an even deeper selloff could look like, so I zoomed out a bit further. $75 would take us to the bottom of this ancient fork again
Reply
blackswan ronfkingswanson
thats still expensive.. its amazing how it held up in 3 digits level for so long.. this controlled descent shows how fearful even market makers are now.. couple that with bitcoin's inherent fragility, currency wars, skyrocketing inflation i dont see much of a real demand coming in soon..good thing is we still have loyal bagholders.
Reply
zoomed out a bit to show what a full 100% retrace to pre-gox-bubble levels would look like
+2 Reply
IvanLabrie ronfkingswanson
It's a fair target.
Reply
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