Summary:
Support seems to be establishing at 20k
Analysis:
After reclaiming 20k, BTC has retested 4 times. In three out of the four cases, volume spiked when price moved down from $20,800 while, on the way up, volume was low.
My interpretation
1) Bear position traders see $20,800 as a good entry point and are entering with large size.
2) Bears breakdown traders, however, are not convinced that the price will breakdown which is why price isn't moving below 20k.
3) Bulls are not convinced the bottom is in and are entering lightly, or accumulating, at 20k.
Despite the lack of conviction from bulls I'm bullish for two reasons:
1) The breakdown traders are not picking up the phone. Without the cooperation of breakdown traders the price wont push lower.
2) The MAs are scooping below the price. Price looks to be positioning above the 30 min (10, 50, 200) and 4 Hr (10, 50) MAs.
Thesis:
Bullish.
Short term, no directional movement until the MAs scoop below the price.
After that, if enough buying pressure comes in to break $20,800 this will squeeze bear position traders and you can enjoy your ice cream on the way up to $22,000.
Support seems to be establishing at 20k
Analysis:
After reclaiming 20k, BTC has retested 4 times. In three out of the four cases, volume spiked when price moved down from $20,800 while, on the way up, volume was low.
My interpretation
1) Bear position traders see $20,800 as a good entry point and are entering with large size.
2) Bears breakdown traders, however, are not convinced that the price will breakdown which is why price isn't moving below 20k.
3) Bulls are not convinced the bottom is in and are entering lightly, or accumulating, at 20k.
Despite the lack of conviction from bulls I'm bullish for two reasons:
1) The breakdown traders are not picking up the phone. Without the cooperation of breakdown traders the price wont push lower.
2) The MAs are scooping below the price. Price looks to be positioning above the 30 min (10, 50, 200) and 4 Hr (10, 50) MAs.
Thesis:
Bullish.
Short term, no directional movement until the MAs scoop below the price.
After that, if enough buying pressure comes in to break $20,800 this will squeeze bear position traders and you can enjoy your ice cream on the way up to $22,000.
Comment:
20,800 broke and is now acting as support. Adding to long!