justsomeguy
Long

BTC: Holding the line + a BIG pivotal test soon

COINBASE:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
BTC             dipped down to our support line and then bounced back up. That's a nice bullish sign. But we're not out of the woods yet (three points is enough to confirm the line but not prove it'll be strong). If we break under it we risk going back down to our support around 7,530. If the aggressive support line holds we'll likely make a run at 10,000.

Also worth mentioning is that we're gearing up to test the top of the long time downward channel . This is big. Very very big. If we break and hold above it then we'll be confirming this bear swing is probably done and we're legitimately on our way back up. Conversely, if we bounce off the top of the channel there's a good chance we could dip hard before giving it another shot. Watch what's going on in the next 3-5 days, this is potentially a pivotal moment.

Long term channel:


Short term pivotal nexus:


If it breaks the top of the channel (blue downward trend line ) and 10,000? We could see some serious fireworks as there's no major resistance for another thousand dollars. Those looking for a quick swing trade might want to try opening around 10.2k with a close at 11,150 or 11,500.
Comment: Broke downward. Next support point to watch for is around 8,310.
Comment: About to test 8,310. Either it holds and we get a bounce, or we fall further.

If we fall further there's a good chance to bounce where our third upward trend meets the support line. Which would look something like this:
Comment: Got our bounce at 8310. The game is back on!
Comment: So we've put off testing the downward trend line. But we also haven't broken below our 7528 support either, which means it's only a matter of time until we try it.

There's a makings of a triangle on the one hour. Not definitive yet (not enough contact points) but we could see strong price shift in the next 36 hrs if it breaks.
Comment: Broken down. We're in for some rough seas. If we break 7528 then we're liable to drop much further.
Comment: Test coming up. Momentum looks bad. If we break that last support expect a drop to 6k and blood in the streets.
Comment: I'm back from vacation, sorry for the wait.

Check out the new support we've found at $6694:


Hit three times on the hourly. If we get a fourth and fifth confirmation then this could start to turn into a major short-mid term support. But we shall have to wait and see.
Comment: RSI suggests a reversal, but it's a leading indicator so take it with a grain of salt. Wait for the SMA EMA cross for primary confirmation.

We're not going to see a real sustained breakout until we break and hold above 7475 for a few days. Until then, this market will remain volatile.
Comment: Btw, the same support line holds true on the 4h as well (four hits) which increases the chance it'll hold:



But it's still far from definitive.
Comment: Nice consolidation before a move.
Comment: Here's our bump up. Seems like we're in a short term channel (I drew this about 12 hours ago, but it still seems to be holding):



Again -- the point to watch for is breaking and holding above 7475. Until we've past that we can't make a real attempt at recovery. If I was going to add buy orders I'd start around 8k.
Comment: You remember that long term resistance line I showed you guys back on march 21st?

Well it's in play now:
Trade closed manually: Moving to new thread.
Here's our bump up. Seems like we're in a short term channel (I drew this about 12 hours ago, but it still seems to be holding):


Again -- the point to watch for is breaking and holding above 7475. Until we've past that we can't make a real attempt at recovery. If I was going to add buy orders I'd start around 8k.
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