NVT in red zone, RSI at major resistance : 3600$ or 2500$ ?
* Network Value to Transaction (NVT) : On the weekly chart, NVT is for the third time since december 2017 in the red zone and ready to dump (to be noted that during the 2014 bear market there are been also 3 NVT red zones). The previous dumps from this red zone (in November 2018, December 2017, July 2014, November 2013 and April 2013) have seen a decrease in PA between -52% and -77%.
* RSI : RSI raised very quickly for the first time during this bear market to the 52 - 60 reversal zone and is touching a long term resistance in that zone (blue line). During the last bear market, RSI couldn't break the 60 resistance on the first attempt. We can expect RSI to fall down to the bottom of the channel.
* Stochastic RSI : Stoch RSI is hanging for several week at the top and needs to reset.
* Price Action : The last pump is not fundamentally sustained, it has been triggered at a narrowing of the weekly bollinger bands, one individual bought 20.000 BTC and triggered a short squeeze, which explains the 1000$ wick. The volume figure also shows a lack of fundamentals and needs to first raise subsantially to show a proper trend reversal. We can see the same volume figure in July 2015 when the RSI also failed to break the 60 resistance and went back to touch the bottom of the channel, resulting in a -36% in PA. BUT NVT was far from the same height as it is now.
* Projection : Fomo can bring the price a bit higher in the coming days/ couple of weeks but I don't expect the RSI to break the 60 resistance. The price will most likely dump and reset the NVT, RSI and stoch RSI. Targeted price : or the 200MA holds at around 3200-3600$ but I would bet we are due for a last leg down, capitulation, panic selling, wick down to 300MA @ 2500$ but FUD can bring it down to 1800$. Then bullish divergence ont he weekly, spring, sustained volume, steady price action, flipping S/R... NEW BULL MARKET!
* RSI : RSI raised very quickly for the first time during this bear market to the 52 - 60 reversal zone and is touching a long term resistance in that zone (blue line). During the last bear market, RSI couldn't break the 60 resistance on the first attempt. We can expect RSI to fall down to the bottom of the channel.
* Stochastic RSI : Stoch RSI is hanging for several week at the top and needs to reset.
* Price Action : The last pump is not fundamentally sustained, it has been triggered at a narrowing of the weekly bollinger bands, one individual bought 20.000 BTC and triggered a short squeeze, which explains the 1000$ wick. The volume figure also shows a lack of fundamentals and needs to first raise subsantially to show a proper trend reversal. We can see the same volume figure in July 2015 when the RSI also failed to break the 60 resistance and went back to touch the bottom of the channel, resulting in a -36% in PA. BUT NVT was far from the same height as it is now.
* Projection : Fomo can bring the price a bit higher in the coming days/ couple of weeks but I don't expect the RSI to break the 60 resistance. The price will most likely dump and reset the NVT, RSI and stoch RSI. Targeted price : or the 200MA holds at around 3200-3600$ but I would bet we are due for a last leg down, capitulation, panic selling, wick down to 300MA @ 2500$ but FUD can bring it down to 1800$. Then bullish divergence ont he weekly, spring, sustained volume, steady price action, flipping S/R... NEW BULL MARKET!