Tone_LLT
Long

The Symmetric Triangle is Ready to Burst... Leaning Up

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / Dollar
1124 14 13
This pattern can really move in either direction so call it a guess, a hunch or just unrealistic optimism, but looking for a breakout back to the horizontal resistance / 50-day SMA of $255, then with luck maybe even the 200 day.

Bitcoin has had a rough year and even if this is a temp relief rally and we make the ultimate lows in the summer, some positive signs are badly needed for the space.

Check out the latest Analysis articles here:
http://cointelegraph.com/news/113453/bitcoin-price-analysis-week-of-feb-9-tough-decisions
http://cointelegraph.com/news/113408/bitcoin-price-analysis-week-of-feb-2-trend-change-part-ii
http://cointelegraph.com/news/113365/bitcoin-price-analysis-week-of-jan-26-spotting-a-trend-change

Good luck traders, I usually tweet these out instead of publishing, still trying to figure out the best way to reach readers/followers.
The triangle will break below to $85.
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Tone_LLT PRO mozalin.cranz
Assuming you mean $185 which is very possible since the range at the apex is about $40-50, going to $85 would in involve a completely different pattern on a longer scale.

I hope never to see $85 again on personal note
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Why? I mean BTC functioned at that level like 14/16 months ago. Has there been that much adoption that would establish a floor higher than that?
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Tone_LLT PRO Douglas-Squirrel
Today is very different than 18 months ago but it's not due to adoption, in fact adoption has stayed pretty linear and has not hit an exponential trend. (even though the amount of business that might be accepting it hit/about to hit exponential trend due to intermediaries like PayPal getting in but that is not exponential adoption, for that we need consumers). The amount of people using btc is growing but pretty slowly and as prices decline people are less willing to spend (a bad cycle).

The price of a bitcoin DID hit exponential grow and with it the Mining aspect structure hit exponential grows with a lot of money flying in. As the price comes down, Bitcoin Mining operation get stressed. Last time the price was in the Teens, a lot of people were mining at home, now that is impossible. Everyone is already complaining that mining is becoming monopolized/centralized and the lower the price gets the higher the chance for this trend to continue, with more people complaining how the system is unfair.

None profitable btc mining will shut down, and will be purchased for pennies on the dollar by the more efficient miners or those that are heavily subsidized... as a free market guy i don't mind efficient companies buying none efficient ones, but for example the btc mining farms in china have their biggest expense of electricity subsidized by the government and that is not efficiency, that's just a regional advantage.

I think you get the point, also see the long reply below talking about 'confidence'

Thanks,

Tone @Tone_LLT
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Y0l0 mozalin.cranz
RIP
-1 Reply
The triangle doesn't look symmetrical to me. It looks more descending because we've been down around $210-$215 three times already.
+2 Reply
Tone_LLT PRO MoonTrader
yeah i can see how people can put a descending triangle on it... but it's also exchange specific, i think if you look at Houbi, it does look more symmetrical, wee need a a really good index to go off of and not one exchange, i'm talking to the BraveNewCoin guys about having them convince TradingView to add their btc indices.
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"some positive signs are badly needed for the space"
What you mean with this?
+1 Reply
Tone_LLT PRO HenrikLolsor
If you take the currency aspect of bitcoin (which is its first and most relevant application) it follows the same confidence rules as any other currency (government created or gold or whatever). Falling too low in price might be all fun and games for those waiting to buy it on the cheap or traders like us, but just like all government currencies, when inflation hits a point where confidence is lost, the game ends.

The biggest positive i have found being around the btc space is that once a person understands it and uses it once or twice, they realize it's the best thing in the world. But those that invested in it as an asset do not see that. Also all those merchants that are now accepting it might lose interest as less people use it as the price of one btc drops and people are getting poorer (in terms of btc net worth). If Merchants start dropping out cause many don't care about this tech revolution, this would be a huge confidence hit to the system.

I'm also talking to a few people in asia and banks like HSBC don't want to provide business accounts to those who simply want to accept btc for good/services (not even btc companies), this is also a big deal.

In this game of confidence there might be a point where it is a lot harder to recover from, if btc was just an asset this would not matter, but we want it to be more than that, and confidence in the stability of that asset is #1 priority (just look at the US Dollar, Global confidence is taking it to the moon), the currency side of BTC is no different.
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Great analysis as usual. I think your right, plus everyone is so bearish, its not gonna happen for them.
+1 Reply
Tone_LLT PRO IncreaseMyT
Thank You, appreciate the kind words
+2 Reply
IncreaseMyT Tone_LLT
LTC the real winner though xD
-3 Reply
You still long?
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Tone_LLT PRO IncreaseMyT
I wasn't once it hit 260, now that it came back to 240 i'm bullish once again, but with this Bter news who really knows. Follow me on Twitter for latest updates and my last article on CoinTelegraph should be out tomorrow. (@Tone_LLT)
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