With BTC having a a bounce out of the blue and currently holding $40K, its time to look more seriously at the bullish case.
In favour of continued bullish price action:
- Buy volume increased during the uptrend for the first time in this correction
- Price has not capitulated following the recent bounce.
- This bounce could potentially be the start of Wyckoff CHoCH change of character
- If price holds it could have formed SOS sign of strength to continue up.
- If recent bounce is a wave 1, a typical elliott wave would take price to $81K
Not advice.
In favour of continued bullish price action:
- Buy volume increased during the uptrend for the first time in this correction
- Price has not capitulated following the recent bounce.
- This bounce could potentially be the start of Wyckoff CHoCH change of character
- If price holds it could have formed SOS sign of strength to continue up.
- If recent bounce is a wave 1, a typical elliott wave would take price to $81K
Not advice.
Comment:
With rejections and faltering trend - this red band is now heavy resistance. That said if price did start trending above it, then that would be bullish. Much more chance however that moves down from here and does not significantly test the resistant band.
Comment:
...that price* moves down.
Comment:
Also note - I am updating both bullish and bearish threads, though as you can see this thread may be turning bearish.
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1) I'm making these pages for other budding technicians. Anyone is welcome to view ofc but this is not aimed at the utterly clueless. If you don't understand how I can have 10K in one hand and 100K in the other, or you find technical terms amusing then my pages may not be for you and you can understand if I choose not to respond to all of these type of comments. These terms are placed for those that are working with charts to be able to look them up and understand the technical perspective.
- And if you look in my history, you will see I was temporarily having an open bearish and bullish calls on VET with price targets of $1 and $0.01. But when it become clear that the bearish target was correct I continued with that.
2) The market- especially the crypto market finds ever more sophisticated ways to catch you out, invalidate the framework you reference from HTF to LTF. This bounce is an example of this. Even if I am lets say 95% confident the trend is down, it is important to stay in touch with both perspectives, and then shortly later I'll probably say - see you at 10K. But lets say I am wrong and it is that 5%, I don't want to be napping, I want to be ready to buy.
3) While we're going into fine details here - my first significant downside target really is the 200Dma, but see you at 200Dma doesn't have quite the same ring to it, and I've done fib work and other things that suggest price will actually break the 200Dma and at least touch 10K. And that work was done while Bitcoin was topping - nothing has changed. I will be going into details of this in the group down the road. Maybe in autumn.