BTC - Theorizing Possible Cycle Tops (If This Isn't a Dead Cat)
Kind of meme TA but looking at one of several possible outcomes for this cycle. Assuming this isn't a dead cat, I thought- what if the longer, weaker cycle theory held true? ..and BTC posts diminishing returns each cycle.
I'm simplifying my 10-year chart here, and it can be summed up more/less like this:
☙ Channel 1: Bearish Range
☙ Channel 2: Mixed/Mostly Bullish Range
☙ Channel 3: Peak Bull Cycle
In the near term obviously we need bulls to actually recover the final requirements for a technical bull market, which is to recover the Daily 200 DMA & 20W SMA in the range of $45k. Then we watch for a possible dead cat bounce; ie. dead cat bounces are just when the market rallies one final time before running out of steam, and posting a massive drop/correction/bear market.
If we can recover the bull market and continue the bull cycle over $60k, this is one theory on how the top might look if we applied the 2013 to 2017 pattern to this cycle.
☙ Historical pattern: 2017 saw a top around 65% weaker (as measured from the spring off the last support on the 10 year chart) compared to 2013
☙ 2021 possible outcome: if 2021 posts another 65% decline, that aligns with a very minor break over channel 3 at around $110k. This mostly aligns with a lot of other bullish predictions. BUT again, this also depends on the next month or so not ending up as a dead cat rally.
I'm simplifying my 10-year chart here, and it can be summed up more/less like this:
☙ Channel 1: Bearish Range
☙ Channel 2: Mixed/Mostly Bullish Range
☙ Channel 3: Peak Bull Cycle
In the near term obviously we need bulls to actually recover the final requirements for a technical bull market, which is to recover the Daily 200 DMA & 20W SMA in the range of $45k. Then we watch for a possible dead cat bounce; ie. dead cat bounces are just when the market rallies one final time before running out of steam, and posting a massive drop/correction/bear market.
If we can recover the bull market and continue the bull cycle over $60k, this is one theory on how the top might look if we applied the 2013 to 2017 pattern to this cycle.
☙ Historical pattern: 2017 saw a top around 65% weaker (as measured from the spring off the last support on the 10 year chart) compared to 2013
☙ 2021 possible outcome: if 2021 posts another 65% decline, that aligns with a very minor break over channel 3 at around $110k. This mostly aligns with a lot of other bullish predictions. BUT again, this also depends on the next month or so not ending up as a dead cat rally.
Comment:
Important note: until proven otherwise, I'm still planning for this to be a dead cat rally (but hoping its not). Historically it fits much of the pattern observed in past bear markets -so far- .. but this cycle is different in many ways from earlier ones, so its also very possible that we do recover the bull market and continue past $60k. Unfortunately no one can predict the future, we can only consider possibilities.