Well, BTC ran into the same problem it had before... it banged its head at the $13K level (purple), broke a hole in the ceiling tiles, and then fell down from it, just like it did during the last head-and-shoulders. Like I mentioned before, $13K is proving to be a tough psychological barrier, like it was at the last shoulders, and again yesterday.
Now BTC has an important level at $11,500 which we need to watch. Look at all the times (green arrows) when BTC stopped at $11,500, both on the way up as well as on the way down. Also, $11,500 is the halfway point between the recent high (around $13,200) and the last low (around $9,700 at the bottom of corrective wave C). A 50% retracement of its last run up would put it at around $11,500.
If $11,500 does not hold, then the prior lows of $10,500 and $9,700 (yellow) would be the next logical levels of support.
Keep in mind, though, that the US Federal Reserve chairman Powell said some very encouraging things during today's testimony before the US congress. He and the FOMC are decidedly more dovish, stating that they will do whatever it takes to keep the economy expanding and to avoid recession. US markets shot up today as a result, convinced that some interest rates cuts are coming in the near future. Almost everyone expects a quarter-percent rate cut this July 31, and at least one more rate cut (possibly two more) in the fall and winter.
This will put downward pressure on the USD and will lift commodities and assets priced in USD, including gold and - you guessed it - BTC. So BTC's run toward its recent tops of $13K and earlier $14K are not over. In fact, over the next year heading into the US elections of November 2020 we can expect the USD to keep falling, and US equities, gold, BTC to keep rising. This is a long-term hold. There will be some downs along the way, but they will be buying opportunities.
Now BTC has an important level at $11,500 which we need to watch. Look at all the times (green arrows) when BTC stopped at $11,500, both on the way up as well as on the way down. Also, $11,500 is the halfway point between the recent high (around $13,200) and the last low (around $9,700 at the bottom of corrective wave C). A 50% retracement of its last run up would put it at around $11,500.
If $11,500 does not hold, then the prior lows of $10,500 and $9,700 (yellow) would be the next logical levels of support.
Keep in mind, though, that the US Federal Reserve chairman Powell said some very encouraging things during today's testimony before the US congress. He and the FOMC are decidedly more dovish, stating that they will do whatever it takes to keep the economy expanding and to avoid recession. US markets shot up today as a result, convinced that some interest rates cuts are coming in the near future. Almost everyone expects a quarter-percent rate cut this July 31, and at least one more rate cut (possibly two more) in the fall and winter.
This will put downward pressure on the USD and will lift commodities and assets priced in USD, including gold and - you guessed it - BTC. So BTC's run toward its recent tops of $13K and earlier $14K are not over. In fact, over the next year heading into the US elections of November 2020 we can expect the USD to keep falling, and US equities, gold, BTC to keep rising. This is a long-term hold. There will be some downs along the way, but they will be buying opportunities.
Comment:
PS... Although gold has been climbing recently, I don't expect it to do what it did in 2011. BTC has far more percentage advantage over gold.