BTC , Repeating the 2 week crossover behavior from 2015 and 2019
On the July 29th graph below it was suggested that BTC will most likely drop lower when the MA50/20 cross on the two weekly chart .
This is what we have seen play out currently.
This is because when this setup occurred in 2015 and 2019 BTC dropped lower by 29% and 19% respectively (from the location of the crossover).
if we take the average of the past 2 crossover drops 29% and 19% this gives 24% .
Applying this average to the current move down leads me to believe that BTC can move down 24%
to around 19/18K.
I would then expect BTC to attempt another move upwards from these levels .
however ....
if BTC fails to move back up and instead drops below 18K then i'd expect another leg down to the 12/13k area .
This is what we have seen play out currently.
This is because when this setup occurred in 2015 and 2019 BTC dropped lower by 29% and 19% respectively (from the location of the crossover).
if we take the average of the past 2 crossover drops 29% and 19% this gives 24% .
Applying this average to the current move down leads me to believe that BTC can move down 24%
to around 19/18K.
I would then expect BTC to attempt another move upwards from these levels .
however ....
if BTC fails to move back up and instead drops below 18K then i'd expect another leg down to the 12/13k area .
Comment:
its best to be patient and tread with caution here as in September the FEDs Quantitative Tightening program is going to pull 3x as much liquidity from the US economy as it did in June and July. This is going to lead to a liquidity crisis and can have a negative impact on the markets.
Comment:
note..the FED will repeat this behavior in October , November and December in a bid to slow down the US economy and tame inflation.