These are my same thoughts. In Bitcoin, making money is never this easy. This is a trap, and a lot of people are gonna get caught underwater because of it.
With the strength of this current rally, if we truly are bull, we need to create a higher high. Anything less than that is going to cause a significant dump IMO.
When zooming out on a weekly timeframe, these two last pumps look so insignificant, yet everybody here seemingly turned into a moonboy, calling everybody who has a different opinion an idiot who missed the train. It doesn't matter what you say, only their opinion matters. They never consider any other possibilities. I would love a bullrun myself, but I don't think it is the right time for one. I wouldn't be surprised if it later dumps down to an even lower low. I think people are still way too optimistic. We need one last big red dildo to crush their minds. We need a rock bottom market sentiment, while having a long and boring post-capitulation sideways price action before a new bullrun starts again.
@MRudy, I'd love one too, but experience showed me how important a neutral perspective is. We are nowhere near the old trend lines, and therefore I don't expect it to have achieved complete correction already.
@MRudy, I don't think a bull run is likely, but IMO a return to retest the 200 EMA in the 4800 area wouldn't be unrealistic. That being said, I'm not taking that position unless we break out of this bear pennant. I've secured my long profits for now, and am shorting at the current resistance.