Good morning my fellow Bitcoinistas!
Yesterday sucked. We took a big hit. So what do I do when my hypothesis is wrong? I start developing a new hypothesis.
I went back through my collection of Bitcoin information and reviewed the Stock to Flow model again. I wish I had paid more attention to it sooner. I could have put a few more Satoshi in my stack.
To the point: The current Stock to Flow model indicates that a fair market price for Bitcoin, right now, this week, is about $8,300 - $8,800
Where is the price right now? About $8,425 as of this writing. What does this indicate according to the model? The market is pricing Bitcoin about right according to the Stock to Flow model. What can we conclude? Prices well below this area are very undervalued while prices well above this area, right now, would be considered over valued. So the main conclusion for me is that if your Dollar Cost Average (DCA) is currently BELOW $9K your hodl position is looking good. If your DCA is way over $9K you may want to take any current price opportunities to continue to average it down. My DCA is well below $5K so that is not an issue for me but I sill added a little more in this price range. If we dip into the $7Ks I will do the same as the prices then will be extremely undervalued according to the Stock to Flow model.
Below is a link to what I am talking about. Take some time to really understand the details and descriptions and you will see that although the price took a big hit now, it will continue to rise going forward. Several months to a year after the next halving the minimum fair market Stock to Flow value is over $100K. (baby blue and purple lines)
Now who doesn't want to stick around to see that? :0)
Have a great day.
BBS out.
" digitalik.net/btc/ "
Yesterday sucked. We took a big hit. So what do I do when my hypothesis is wrong? I start developing a new hypothesis.
I went back through my collection of Bitcoin information and reviewed the Stock to Flow model again. I wish I had paid more attention to it sooner. I could have put a few more Satoshi in my stack.
To the point: The current Stock to Flow model indicates that a fair market price for Bitcoin, right now, this week, is about $8,300 - $8,800
Where is the price right now? About $8,425 as of this writing. What does this indicate according to the model? The market is pricing Bitcoin about right according to the Stock to Flow model. What can we conclude? Prices well below this area are very undervalued while prices well above this area, right now, would be considered over valued. So the main conclusion for me is that if your Dollar Cost Average (DCA) is currently BELOW $9K your hodl position is looking good. If your DCA is way over $9K you may want to take any current price opportunities to continue to average it down. My DCA is well below $5K so that is not an issue for me but I sill added a little more in this price range. If we dip into the $7Ks I will do the same as the prices then will be extremely undervalued according to the Stock to Flow model.
Below is a link to what I am talking about. Take some time to really understand the details and descriptions and you will see that although the price took a big hit now, it will continue to rise going forward. Several months to a year after the next halving the minimum fair market Stock to Flow value is over $100K. (baby blue and purple lines)
Now who doesn't want to stick around to see that? :0)
Have a great day.
BBS out.
" digitalik.net/btc/ "
Trade closed: target reached