BTCUSD: Ugly Yes. Bear Market? Not Yet.

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
BTCUSD update: Now you know why we avoid buying into highs. Price never reached the overhead resistance zone in the 7500's and has retraced sharply. The best thing to do in a situation like this is stand aside.

At S.C., we evaluate everything in probabilities and follow best practices. It was clear that the risk was high as price got closer to the major overhead resistance between the 7500 and 7900 area. We do not pretend to know where the market is going, but we do prepare for scenarios based on how we measure risk. We sent out a more detailed chart to our members explaining this situation yesterday.

When faced with this kind of bearish momentum, there is nothing to do but let the market play out. Price needs to stabilize and find a support before any further evaluation can be made.

As for our portfolio, we still manage Bitcoin inventory and have no intention of selling it. We do plan to rotate out of some of the weaker alts and reinvest that capital back into this market. We share our strategey for that specific rebalancing process with our members.

The alts got seriously punished during this retrace. Many of them have been presenting structures that have clearly warned of further weakness way in advance. This is why we have been so vocal about having a good defense and waiting for better conditions. (Just look at Ethereum ).

In summary, getting excited and reacting to fast moves in a market is not productive. The best thing to do is take a step back and let the market settle. As ugly as it looks, nothing moves in a straight line.

We anticipate price finding support around the 6K area. Based on the current structure, it can even probe slightly below the 5750 level and reverse sharply. Do not lose sight of the broader location during periods of dramatic price action. If anything this market can be establishing a very wide consolidation.

As long as price is trading above 4983, it is not that bearish over the long term. Just something to keep in mind when the "experts" start calling for "BTC 3K!" in a couple of hours.
Marc Principato, CMT |Author: Analyze Any Financial Market Like The Pros Using Price Action| | Cofounder (S.C.)

Bloomberg crypto out here calling for 5k and shorts stacking up.... long
+1 Reply
Thank you Marc for your share. We continue to have a different outlook where this 1W Falling Wedge is and has always been bearish on the long term. We have predicted this near 7,500 rejection based on the 0.500 Fibonacci rejection on the previous two 1W Lower Highs. The maximum it can rise to is 6,800, where it should attract more sellers. We are looking for below 6,000 at the moment:

+1 Reply
working same as i predicted see my both analysis

Thanks Marc... 100% agree. In my opinion this was/is a well executed drop following the market cycle after reaching resistance in order to buy back shorts and/or ALTs at lower levels, put a bottom in and then profit when it climbs again. So just waiting.
MarcPMarkets andre1crypto
@andre1crypto, thanks for sharing. The trolls on here are clueless. They same people will be bulls when it is becomes obvious again.
+2 Reply
I really like the mentality of bitcoin Traders and investors ... price is down 70% and it is not a bear market, must probably price have to retrace to 99% for bear market to begin because at that time price will be 500 $ and hodlers will say we are still up by 500% if you had bought at 100$ back in 2013.

Price is clearly telling I am gone a follow 2013 path where price was down for almost 2 years making ATH at 1200$, same thing is gone a happen and we are already 9 months down and just another 15 months to go.

But note one thing price will make ATH again and everyone will be like if I had gotten at that 2K 3k 4k I would have been king of my own world.
+4 Reply
@jombie, hi, i am new to this website, just want to share some of my personal opinions. all tech analysis aside, i think that the miners costs are set around 5500-6000 for now depends on the type of machine. Just like ETH miner cost per coin is around 150$. There should be a strong support around this area. If the price keeps dropping, there will be a totally different story.
MrVolcano berniexiong
Hi @berniexiong, I've heard this point of view put across before and on the face of it, it sounds good. However, what makes me doubtful about this theory is that it was only as recent as Oct 2017 - 1 year ago - that Bitcoin broke above $5000. Before that it was often well below $5k. Now I know that there are things such as difficulty rate to take in to consideration, but I don't think that difficulty or electricity prices have increased so much in a year to substantiate this theory. That said, I do realise that its an incredibly complex formula and one that I don't claim to be close to understanding. Just sharing my thoughts on the matter.
+1 Reply
@MrVolcano, thanks for the educated and thoughtful response. It actually adds value to the community. The members of the herd do not understand the big picture and only focus on what's in front of them or fed to them from other "authorities".
+1 Reply
MrVolcano MarcPMarkets
Thanks @MarcPMarkets. And thanks for your continued analyses. Always well considered and educational. Thanks a million. Keep it up Marc!
+1 Reply
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