Bitcoin - Who Was Right and Who Is Wrong

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
The market did not follow the H&S chart pattern from the previous post. For some people who know nothing about real trading in the financial markets and who think that for making money a trader must be right in his trading ideas all the time, I would like to say the following: learn the theory, get knowledge and experience and in some time you will understand how you were wrong and where.

The price broke the right shoulder and the reversal chart pattern became a continuation one. The market keeps some potential for moving upward and probably it will be able to reach 6000.00 level without deep correction, but still, we have different bearish signal too. The weekly and the daily charts tell us about the possible downward movement which is logical in the structure of the uptrend. Yes, the market can move upward. But for me, the main questions is - the market bounces from the zones at 5000.00 or 6000.00 levels in order to move down to the important support zones. Nothing more.

If we look at the 1H chart, the market continues upward movement in the borders of the upward channel. Now the price is at the resistance zone formed by the upper line of the channel and 5300.00 resistance level . It's the zone where the price can bounce and move downward to the main line of the price channel . At the same time we have to remember that if the price breaks the resistance zone , the market will confirm the further upward movement. It will show the strength of buyers and their wish to reach 6000.00 resistance as soon as possible.

For confirmation of the downward movement, the price will have to break the main line of the price channel and drop below 5000.00 support level . In such case, the market will be able to follow the bearish signals from the higher timeframes.

How to trade:
- short term trading can be done based on the reversal signals from the support zone at 5000.00 level and the main line of the price channel
- for the medium term trading, I would like to get a correction to 4200.00 - 4000.00 support zone
- for long term trading, it's possible to start building long positions from the current levels.

If you want to see the bigger picture for this market, I advise you to read my previous posts about Bitcoin . You can find them in the related ideas.

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I think the CME expiration date has a major impact on BTC's trend transition.

Thank God the bears are finally exhausted...BUT in that crashing market they have stockpiled much Bitcoin and shitcoin. These whale trader can collapse the price whenever they want. So always be wary of their nasty intentions
+1 Reply
btc 1400 or 14000 you decide
Thank you for great ideas!!
I agree with your MTF method for trading, very applicable. I do my analysis on Multiple Time Frames, by using "9 Seasons Rainbow Indicators". In case the price falls to the level 5000, I would ee a 15m - 1H Bullish Divergence, while then price falls to the level of 4000, a 30m-2H Bullish Divergence may serve as reversal signals.
I notice Divergence has been working pretty well on BTCUSD Since Summit of December 2017. I concluded all big Divergence signals of MACD and RSI in my new idea
"Is Divergence the King or Queen of Crypto Technical Analysis?".
What is your view?
I just dont understand why a volatile unregulated market should follow the patters that work from time to time on the classic markets and dont have an evidence base using economical or mathematical formalism? You have hashrates, mining difficulty, fees, miners rewards, block and transaction explorers, halvings, order books, crypto news & events, some new derived metrics like NVT, MVRV, you can apply GARCH to predict volatility, you can use PCA for the correlation analysis, you can apply Kohonen maps to predict the future behavior - all of them have a much more value for the market analysis, comparing to H&S and its friends.
+3 Reply
Mr Lavrov, with all due respect, we are again seeing two sided directions by your end.

There is no such thing, neither should be.

Also expression as " We let the market decide is absolutely wrong"

Pro trader will be able to determinate direction, since he is the one making confirmations.

Thank you for your efforts Mr. Lavorv.

The very first step to become a successful trader, in my opinion, is to understand once and for all that you have to deal with possibilities and not constants. I don't know the stats, but I'll shoot in the dark and will say that $BTC invalidate in its relatively short life much more patterns than any fiat. From this point one comes to the conclusion (sooner or later) that it is all about risk management + money management (very close to each other, yet totally different). I consider myself successful since my asset for trading (only cryptos) is way bigger than when I've started, yet I have <75% success rate of trades. I'll go even further to say that one can be VERY successful in therms of winning money even with UNDER 50% , providing he is managing his assets in a correct manner. Great analysis, as usual! Thank you for your work!
+1 Reply
DataPatron cryptozwerg
@cryptozwerg, interesting, best traders in the world has 50% success rate. You can be hugely profitable with 20% sucess rate, it's absolutely not about number of wins and loses..
+1 Reply
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