Taiwan_Bear

BTC - Now, everyone is calling <4k?

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
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124
Dear All,

The support level of $6651 did not hold and looks like BTC is following the almost perfect fractals since February with a target of around $4700. There might be a bounce to retest $7100 (speculative) and if BTC gets rejected at that level then $6000 is unlikely to hold. And yes, I am still holding my $6660 positions which I used the profits that I made from the $7101 -> $7600 trade (It’s a free ride).

If you have been following me for some time, you know that I have been expecting $4.4k for months and have been reminding you in most of my previous TAs that it is possible for BTC to go below 5k. Some people doubted me and said that the bull market has begun, since the April short squeeze. Now, let me ask you again, are you sure the bull market has begun? There are a great amount of people calling $4k now (and sound like they were the first people calling it) and it’s only because the price starts to drop . They change their views wherever the price goes and these people are the typical kind of guys who buy high and sell low.

Let’s get back to the chart. I have now added the 2x gigantic bat pattern and the price structure around $5k & $4k to my previous chart. As you can see $5k is a crucial support level , not only does the big bat pattern (yellow) suggest BTC to have a bounce at around $4800-$5000 but the butterfly pattern (red), the fractals, as well as the price structures around September 2017. All these signifies the degree of support at that price level. Personally, I would add 33% of my long positions at that level. However, please keep in mind harmonic pattern is only to provide you with a “Potential Reversal Zone”. This means the price may/may not reach the potential reversal zone.

I know you might ask, will BTC go below 4k? Of course there is a possibility. My very bottom target is at around $3800 however I am not worried at all if it does drop to that level. I will just add another 33% positions at that level. I think many people don’t have a clear mind as to why they trade Cryptos. There are “traders”, and there are “investors”. Which one are you? If you are traders, sure, you can wait for bullish signal to enter. But if you are investors, you should “invest” and ladder your buy-ins on the way down. Remember, you want to buy low, not high. More importantly, don’t use leverage in Cryptos and only risk what you can afford to lose.

Recently I have been giving you my exact buy/sell target, instead of a “general trend”. It is much easier to give you a general trend and claim my previous TA as being correct. If you would like me to continue giving out the exact price target, leave a comment or type “+1” in the comments section. If I don’t see much response from you, I think I will save myself the trouble and just give you a general direction.

Furthermore, I think some of you have been following only “part” of my strategies and then combine with the strategy from other traders. For example, I told you I was going to place my buy on EOS between $10.5 - $11.5. I also told you that I was going to sell half of those positions at $14.89 and $13.7. Did you follow the same strategy? Or did you become greedy and thought the price was going to rocket because you combined my strategy with other traders’ advice? If you became greedy and followed only part of my strategy, then I am sorry, but you deserve to loss money. You should always take partial profits and leave the remaining positions risk-free. So, even if the price drops unexpectedly, you won’t panic and still close your positions with profits overall.
Comment: For those TAs (LTC, Stratis .etc) that I said I am holding it for mid to long term, I won’t be updating them until I think it’s needed. Of course, you can PM me and I will give you my opinions when I have time. As you might have noticed, I am “online” most of the time however usually I am either at work or busy with other things. If I don’t reply you I might be just busy. Please forgive me. You can always PM me and I will try to reply you asap.

Lastly, if you think you are an inexperienced trader, I suggest you to read thoroughly on one of DLavrov’s TA -
This will really assist you with your trading/investing journey.

All the best,
Taiwan Bear

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Please note this post is provided for informational purpose only. It is not a financial advice to buy/sell.
Comment: I know some of you are interested in shorting BTC atm because it has broken down the bear flag. However, let me remind you a few things:

1: BTC is currently at the bottom of the downtrend channel
2. There are some support levels between 6k - 6.4k.
3. Potential reversal zone (harmonics) coincides with the important structures. So, BTC could form a double bottom and starts to go up
4. If you short the market now, you are selling at the support
5. Longs are dropping fast while shorts are going up
6. As I have mentioned, the next long term trade opportunity for me is $4800 - $5000 however it doesn't mean that BTC has to go straight down there right now. It can still go up to above 7k+ before it drops again. Or, it could be just the start of a new bull run now. No one really knows.

Personally, if I were to swing trade, I would rather go long than short. Risk is about 2.5 - 3% while reward is about 4.8 - 36%.

In saying the above, if the support is broken, the sell-off will be massive.

I have provided you with my views. You can decided what you wanna do. I certainly do NOT recommend shorting the Cryptos market at such a low price level, unless you know what you are doing.

Comments

Please keep on sharing your wisdom brother, I've been following you since March and you saved me a lot of trouble
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Thank you for sharing with us your charts and your thoughts. Much appreciated!
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Great Breakdown mate! I however think we might see a meltdown right to $2000
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+1
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+1. Well done. Just followed.
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I respect the living hell out of you man !! you are amazing man !! thank you so much !!
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+1 Thanks
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Great post! Thanks! +1
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