BTC/USD - I have no idea where it's going and neither do you.

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
BTC - the asset on everyone's lips! Given the scale of the price reversal, I'm sure there's many of you who are watching the charts incredibly closely.

I've drawn up a few (quite basic) thoughts that the indicators are providing us. But in sum, I think this is truly a 50/50 case. There's very strong underlying support at $8k, which also has a psychological aspect to it as the beginning of the Nov-Dec 2017 rise. However, the sheer strength of the established bearish trend means that we need extra strong signals of any reversal that will take place.

For now, BTC has stabilised at $8k, and there are a couple of encouraging signs ( hammer candles, push back from support, stabilisation of volume/price). But, there's equal signs on the bearish side, with a drop in volume/price action - which had previously stabilised even while prices had declined. VZO is now indicating strong bearish behaviour. This either means that all the bears have sold, and the market has room for bulls to re-enter, or, it's a leading indicator that the bulls have surrendered control and $5.4k is beckoning.

Basically, I have no idea what's going to happen. I think we have to assume that given the strength of the current downtrend, we need some truly strong bullish signals, and evidence, before we can declare a reversal underway.

I'm not a fundamentals guy, and I don't pay too close attention to the news. I'm all about indicators and market signals, as I believe all factors are reflected in market price action. However, crypto is awash with investors who play by different rules, and therefore the market is far more volatile than any other I've ever looked at. You can't help but feel that what happens next depends more on human psychology than any logical market behaviour (you could argue human psyche dictates all market behaviour, but that's a debate for another day).

For now, if you're in BTC I'd hold and wait to see evidence of a bounce from $8k, but watch the market very closely, as any sustained dip below that level will likely result in a quick and violent fall to $5.4k.

Cheers and good luck,
Comment: $5.4k is support NOT resistance!
be clear..short at 10k wait for support at 8k..if dropped below 7.5k then go for 5k..simple..
@ghose12, Not clear. Plus, the vast majority of crypto traders don't short. So they're after long trades.

This wasn't a long or short recommendation, just analysis :)
ghose12 DreamsDefined
@DreamsDefined, long trades only come after dips..so if u talk about long trades u probably should seek for trades like 19k sell off and buy at 5k like thing...In between that u r missing so much momentum and opportunities..10k will give resistance and can find support at 8.5k..then if bulls fight we can see 12k resistance then if more uptrend occurs 14k..if not 5k then to 20k..
@ghose12, Well aware, man. Wasn't writing this for you or I, but for the vast majority of crypto traders who don't know the basics and are panicking.
ghose12 DreamsDefined
@DreamsDefined, ok...once pls check the chart..u have gave a typo of support to resistance
@ghose12, Oops, so I did. Thanks :)
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