I also provide my reason for believing we will remain inside a consolidation range until we decide whether we're going up or down by the end of August to early September.
Part 3 of 3 will be discussion on Wyckoff Accumulation Schematic #1, Accumulation Schematic #2 and Distribution Schematic #1.
In the video I mentioned the 3-Day and 4-Day TF's are showing DOWNWARD pressure WHILE the 2-Day and 1-Day TF's were showing UPWARD pressure. I also said they both basically OFFSET one another. At least for now. What I want to add is: While they're both offsetting one another to equal sideways consolidation within a trading range; there will come a time where they all line up. Such as ALL of them showing downward pressure or ALL of them showing upward pressure. When that occurs, there's a much increased chance of a SIGNIFICANT move toward the direction ALL of them are indicating. I believe ALL of them may indicate downward pressure the last week in August or first week of September.
The 60m is approaching peak upward pressure. This does not mean it will not continue up more. We could continue with upward pressure for 2 to 4 more 60m candles or we could turn down briefly on this current 60m candle. If the Blue LSMA in the 60m TF only dips a little after peaking, then turns back up and continues to the 80% level once again; then the 0.618 FIB will likely be reached during the current 12h candle mentioned in the 12h TF chart above. Otherwise, it may not occur until the next 12h candle.
The 30m (far left) and 60m (center) are getting ever higher above the 80% level and approaching potential exhaustion. How long the exhaustion will last or when it will actually begin is unknown but it's drawing close. However, from the way the price action is playing out, it's as if a bull bot has been turned on to slowly begin going up with little resistance from "supply" dumping on them. This doesn't mean they can't turn off the bull bot when they want to.
We do have room for the Phoenix ARI to continue higher in the 120m TF. But that doesn't mean the price won't drop before the Phoenix ARI reaches 80% or higher in the 120m TF (far right).
Here's a look at the 720m (12h), 1440m (24h) and 2-Day (48h) TF's: The 12h looks like we have a chance of a good strong move upside. It's a positive sign seeing the Phoenix ARI turn green and has poked its head above the 20% level. We really need it to go a bit higher in order for there to be a better chance of it continuing upward to the 80% or higher level. I still say we stand a good chance of making it to the Aqua color box by August 18th.
The Daily and the 2-Day TF's are what have me still holding reservations about busting up higher. It's possible (based on current levels of the indicators in the Daily and 2-Day) for one more dip down before having a clearing chance of breaking out and upward to $7,000 and higher. We still need more information with the indicators in the days to come.
Here's a look at the 15m again with the 60m and 120m TF's included:
I'll post a chart below for future reference to point out our "current location."
480m (8h) TF:
Here's the Daily (1440m) TF:
My two previous posts simply point out (in my opinion) the worst case scenario. Meaning, I have a hard time seeing us go below $5,774.72. Yes, it's POSSIBLE to go into the Purple rectangle once again but I have a hard time seeing us go substantially below the lower boundary of that Purple rectangle ($5,774.72). It's very possible we continue up from here at a slow pace. However, I still see us in a period of consolidation for at least the remainder of August "IF" we do not go up significantly by mid day Monday.
Here's the 3-Day TF: Note an event I highlighted in the month of September, 2017. The Godmode indicator and Stochastic RSI with Phoenix ARI look like they could play out somewhat similar. Tell me what y'all think.
It seems pretty obvious to me that most of you who are waiting for this to go below $5,774.72 may end up being disheartened as each day passes by without us going below that price point.
The higher time frames; such as the 4-Day, 5-Day, 6-Day and 7-Day are slowly progressing to the point where they are not far (if not already) showing signs of upward pressure beginning or about to begin soon.
So, as anticipated, it's looking like what we were seeing in the Daily and 2-Day time frames may carry over into the higher time frames. It appears we were correct on staying within a price range identified with the neon green rectangle on my charts. However, I feel it won't be long before we begin going up. We could be going up here. We may possibly go down one more time before finally going up. Just remember that each day that passes by allows the indicators in the higher time frames to progress to the point where they begin to show signs of upward pressure and consideration for entry.
Here's a look at the 2-Day, 4-Day and 7-Day TF's:
Daily (24h) TF:
480m (8h) TF:
240m (4h) TF:
Here is the Daily TF Chart I posted yesterday here in comments:
Here is the 480m TF from today with possible scenario of where we are going and when we might see reversal on Aug. 28th:
As I suggested with the video portion of this publication: I was expecting the majority of the remainder of August to remain within the Green rectangle before we see a chance for sustained upward pressure and significant upward moves in the price action.
BTCUSD is one of the few (if not the only) pairs in an Accumulation Schematic. Most all of the alt-coin pairs appear to be in Phase B of a LARGE Distribution Schematic. I'll provide a video of ETHUSD soon to let followers know what I mean about ALT-Coin/USD pairs being in a large Distribution Schematic.
quite a while and the price action slowly rose over time. It took some time but it actually kept rising. That's what we could see occur here potentially. Also, not each time the Stochastic RSI came down to the 0% level in this 12h TF back in September 2017 (highlighted in Aqua), the price action did not come down significantly. I'm sure a lot of shorts were squeezed then. Just as could be the case here.
Many margin shorts or those considering to go margin short are getting more concerned about going short with current conditions. This is why I believe the market makers are making this go as slow as a snail. To lull in margin shorts. That's my opinion.
Here's the 12h (720m):
There haven't been this many Short Contracts (positions) in quite a while:
Anyway, I thought I would share what I want to see accomplished in the 2-Day TF. I want to see the Phoenix ARI go above the 50% level. We may still have two more 2-Day candles before there's a chance of this occurring. If it does occur, this is good news.
If you bought in anywhere between $5,774.72 and $6,450, you should have no worries in my opinion. It's only up from here for a while with small dips while going up.
The current 4-Day candle began today, August 29, 2018. We need to see what the indicators are showing when they are updated on the next 4-Day candle that begins on September 3, 2018. The indicators should give us an excellent signal as to how bullish or not that we will be in the coming months of 4th Quarter.
Here's the 7-Day TF:
How many more $100 jumps do people need to wait in order to get in?
Here's a friendly reminder of what's going on in Phase C right now:
It is in phase C the coin price goes through a decisive test of the remaining supply (June 29, 2018 @ $5,774.72), allowing the “smart money” operators to ascertain whether the stock is ready to be marked up. Reminder: A Spring is a price move below the support level of the trading range established in phases A and B that quickly reverses and moves back into the trading range (June 29, 2018 @ $5,774.72). It is an example of a bear trap because the drop below support appears to signal resumption of the downtrend. In reality, though, this marks the beginning of a new uptrend, trapping the late sellers, or bears. In Wyckoff's method, a successful TEST of SUPPLY usually occurs once more and is represented by a spring or a shakeout (August 10 to 14, 2018). This provides a high-probability trading opportunity. A LOW-VOLUME spring (or a LOW-VOLUME test of a shakeout) indicates that the coin is likely to be ready to move up, so this is a good time to initiate AT LEAST a partial long position.
The appearance of an SOS (Sign of Strength) shortly AFTER a spring or shakeout validates the analysis. I believe the peak of that SIGN OF STRENGTH will be around September 18th to 24th at approximately $9,000 to $9,555 price range. However, in Accumulation Schematic #2, the testing of supply can occur higher up in the trading range without a spring or shakeout; when this occurs, the identification of phase C can be challenging.
This information (above) is found in the following link: https://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:market_analysis:the_wyckoff_method
Here's an image of both a accumulation schematics (below):
Wyckoff Accumulation Schematic #1: https://i.imgur.com/gcrmXTd.png
Wyckoff Accumulation Schematic #2 https://i.imgur.com/54FyNdB.png
I believe everyone is beginning to see WHY it's so important to TRY to get in as low as possible to give yourself as much CUSHION as possible to help prevent emotions from enticing you to make the wrong decisions.
I still say those who got in at $6,450 and lower should not worry. That's my opinion... So, what if it just so happens to fall below $6,450 and you bought in at that price point. I believe you still have much more upside potential than downside.
480m (8h) TF:
I still have a very hard time believing we are in Phase E of a Distribution Schematic and looking for a Selling Climax to drop us down into the $4,000 to $4,500 range.
Here's a chart WITHOUT Accumulation Schematic Example posted on the chart:
The following is a link to an image with the same chart (above) included with an example of Wyckoff Accumulation Schematic #2 imposed over the bottom left corner.
I'll post a chart or two later with indicators...
I'll post a chart or two later with indicators...
The website the following chart I'm about to post has a "TOTAL CRYPTO MARKET CAP" chart. Trading View does not. Here is an image from that website of the TOTAL "CRYPTO" MARKET CAP to show we are in Phase B of a LARGE Wyckoff Distribution Schematic:
Here is an image of a Wyckoff Distribution Schematic superimposed in the bottom right corner of the TOTAL crypto market cap chart: https://i.imgur.com/mT8K0up.png
IMAGE of 2-Day TF for BTCUSD BitStamp WITH Wyckoff Accumulation Schematic #2 in lower right corner: https://i.imgur.com/2g5ZKG5.png
TOTAL CRYPTO CURRENCY MARKET CAP:
By the way, "price" could be seen by the arrows I had drawn on the chart on September 6th.
I'm sorry, but I don't give "shapes" much weight. Not with my strategy. I rely more on the indicators used and Wyckoff Method. However, I'm certainly open ears to listen to anything you wish to contribute/discuss.
In your opinion are these Godmode+LSMA settings also optimal and/or applicable for forex and/or stocks?
Sure, you're welcome!
Agreed, the markets can change rather quickly; which can require an update sooner than anticipated at times.
Yes, I believe we should look at MANY time frames in order to understand and/or get an idea of the actual story being told of the the current condition of the market when looking at many time frame. It's hard to draw a conclusion just from looking at the 4h. It's hard to draw a conclusion from looking at only the Daily or Weekly by themselves. We have to look at MANY time frames to get an idea of what story those many time frames are trying to tell us.
I've found you may need to alter the LSMA input from a range of 28 to 32; depending on the pair you're analyzing. Even in crypto... For example, I like using an input of 30 with LSMA when charting ADAUSDT on Binance. In some cases, I like an input of 28 for LSMA inside the indicator.