ProwdClown

BTCUSD - Bitstamp - Part 2 of 3 - Lower TF's Discussed

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
In this Publication, emphasis is placed on the following time frames (TF's): 4-Day, 3-Day, 2-Day, Daily, 12h and 6h.

I also provide my reason for believing we will remain inside a consolidation range until we decide whether we're going up or down by the end of August to early September.

Part 3 of 3 will be discussion on Wyckoff Accumulation Schematic #1, Accumulation Schematic #2 and Distribution Schematic #1.

In the video I mentioned the 3-Day and 4-Day TF's are showing DOWNWARD pressure WHILE the 2-Day and 1-Day TF's were showing UPWARD pressure. I also said they both basically OFFSET one another. At least for now. What I want to add is: While they're both offsetting one another to equal sideways consolidation within a trading range; there will come a time where they all line up. Such as ALL of them showing downward pressure or ALL of them showing upward pressure. When that occurs, there's a much increased chance of a SIGNIFICANT move toward the direction ALL of them are indicating. I believe ALL of them may indicate downward pressure the last week in August or first week of September.
Comment: Posting this chart without indicators to allow you to see the PRICES of each potential trading range highlighted in different colors:

Comment: Part 3 of 3 will follow either later this evening or tomorrow. Since it mainly involves Wyckoff Method with 3 different potential schematics, it's not as big of a rush to get it posted.
Comment: I would not be surprised if we have a dump shortly with BTCUSD. Why? Because a LOT of BTC was just obtained by the whales who dumped Alt-Coins for Bitcoin. Doesn't mean it must just because I said it. The 4 hour (240m) still has more room for downward pressure with the Stochastic RSI and Phoenix ARI.

Comment: Since the ALT/USD pairs dumped approximately 18% on average, it's possible BTCUSD could do similar. Not saying it will. I'm simply pointing out things I'm seeing on exchanges to create
Comment: A 12% drop would be about $5,700'ish.
Comment: Here's the 720m (12h) TF: We did dip down into the Purple rectangle and came back up into the Green rectangle (as anticipated). I'm hoping to see a trouph (bowl) of sorts from now till September 1st. This particular shapes is usually a good sign for energy build up to a bull run. We'll see how it goes in the next two weeks to come.

Comment: What does the 12h TF look like now after the update to a new candle and the indicators updating?

Comment: The 60m, 120m and 240m TF's:

The 60m is approaching peak upward pressure. This does not mean it will not continue up more. We could continue with upward pressure for 2 to 4 more 60m candles or we could turn down briefly on this current 60m candle. If the Blue LSMA in the 60m TF only dips a little after peaking, then turns back up and continues to the 80% level once again; then the 0.618 FIB will likely be reached during the current 12h candle mentioned in the 12h TF chart above. Otherwise, it may not occur until the next 12h candle.

Comment: The Black 0.5 FIB at $6,297.36 reached at $6,299.00.

8h TF:



The 30m (far left) and 60m (center) are getting ever higher above the 80% level and approaching potential exhaustion. How long the exhaustion will last or when it will actually begin is unknown but it's drawing close. However, from the way the price action is playing out, it's as if a bull bot has been turned on to slowly begin going up with little resistance from "supply" dumping on them. This doesn't mean they can't turn off the bull bot when they want to.

We do have room for the Phoenix ARI to continue higher in the 120m TF. But that doesn't mean the price won't drop before the Phoenix ARI reaches 80% or higher in the 120m TF (far right).

Comment: Dip looks likely here:

Comment: Wow... looks like we may potentially be going up to that 0.618 FIB at $6420.70 sooner than anticipated. Certainly looked like we were going to have a dip before making it there. I believe I'm going to stop posting potential dips on our way to projected signals at FIB's.

Comment: This recent run up may only be the beginning of more to come. Yes, according to the 4h (240m) TF, we may have a bout of sideways for a bit before continuing up. However, the 12h (720m) TF certainly shows more sign of upward pressure to come. It's possible we make it into the Aqua (light blue) color by August 18th.

Comment: They keep doing BIG $700 swings every 36 to 48 hours to keep everyone off guard, to keep everyone guessing and to keep everyone buying and selling repeatedly in the hopes people trade off emotions to reduce peoples capital before finally taking us where they want us to go. We'll know more about where they are taking us before September 1st. Too soon to say at the moment. I'm still hoping we remain in what appears to be an Accumulation Schematic.

Here's a look at the 720m (12h), 1440m (24h) and 2-Day (48h) TF's: The 12h looks like we have a chance of a good strong move upside. It's a positive sign seeing the Phoenix ARI turn green and has poked its head above the 20% level. We really need it to go a bit higher in order for there to be a better chance of it continuing upward to the 80% or higher level. I still say we stand a good chance of making it to the Aqua color box by August 18th.

The Daily and the 2-Day TF's are what have me still holding reservations about busting up higher. It's possible (based on current levels of the indicators in the Daily and 2-Day) for one more dip down before having a clearing chance of breaking out and upward to $7,000 and higher. We still need more information with the indicators in the days to come.

Comment: $6,200 to $6,300 is probably a good buy in my opinion.

Comment: That would be as low as we probably go ($6,200 to $6,300). However, it's POSSIBLE we may not go much lower. I personally would not feel bad at all about buying in here between $6,250 and $6,350.
Comment: 15m TF:

Comment: If you got in a lot lower at $6,250 or lower, I would be content with where I made entry and wait to see what occurs in the 12h, 24h and 48h (2-Day).

Here's a look at the 15m again with the 60m and 120m TF's included:
Comment:
Comment: My bad... wrong chart... here's the correct one:

Comment: My apologies for not having posted Part 3 of 3 (Wyckoff Method Analysis) yet. I'm waiting to see what occurs here before putting it together. I am putting a chart together in preparation. Just waiting to see what occurs with price action at current location.

I'll post a chart below for future reference to point out our "current location."

480m (8h) TF:

Comment: We may still have time to wait for a decisive and significant move upward.

Here's the Daily (1440m) TF:

Comment: 720m (12h) TF:

Comment: Let me be clear:

My two previous posts simply point out (in my opinion) the worst case scenario. Meaning, I have a hard time seeing us go below $5,774.72. Yes, it's POSSIBLE to go into the Purple rectangle once again but I have a hard time seeing us go substantially below the lower boundary of that Purple rectangle ($5,774.72). It's very possible we continue up from here at a slow pace. However, I still see us in a period of consolidation for at least the remainder of August "IF" we do not go up significantly by mid day Monday.
Comment: Looking like $6,820 is likely.

Comment: The 3-Day TF looks like we have a decent chance of this potentially developing into a move upward and mark the beginning of Phase D in our Accumulation Schematic. I'm still not certain if this will be an Accumulation Schematic #1 or #2. I'll get more into that in Video Publication 3 of 3; which will be created in the near future. I wanted to see what occurs at our current location before investing time with Part 3 of 3.

Here's the 3-Day TF: Note an event I highlighted in the month of September, 2017. The Godmode indicator and Stochastic RSI with Phoenix ARI look like they could play out somewhat similar. Tell me what y'all think.

Comment: 720m (12h) TF:

Comment: Apologies for calling the Blue LSMA "Liquid" Square instead of "Least" Square moving average. A good friend of mine pointed it out with a little knowledge tidbit: "Least means that it takes the lowest square value as the operator in the moving average."
Comment: A look at the Daily TF:

Comment: Here's a look at the 2-Day. We're getting close to the time for me to begin preparation for posting Video Publication Part 3 of 3.

Comment: I've been watching the order book rather closely on BitStamp the past several weeks. We have a buyer or group of buyers who has been accumulating a LOT of Bitcoin. They've had buy orders placed in increments of $5.00 apart from one another to buy every time we have selloffs. The buy orders are mostly in quantity of 10 to 12 Bitcoin. Some of the orders are in quantities of 20 to 30 Bitcoin. Again, these are buy orders in increments of every $5.00 drop down.

It seems pretty obvious to me that most of you who are waiting for this to go below $5,774.72 may end up being disheartened as each day passes by without us going below that price point.

The higher time frames; such as the 4-Day, 5-Day, 6-Day and 7-Day are slowly progressing to the point where they are not far (if not already) showing signs of upward pressure beginning or about to begin soon.

So, as anticipated, it's looking like what we were seeing in the Daily and 2-Day time frames may carry over into the higher time frames. It appears we were correct on staying within a price range identified with the neon green rectangle on my charts. However, I feel it won't be long before we begin going up. We could be going up here. We may possibly go down one more time before finally going up. Just remember that each day that passes by allows the indicators in the higher time frames to progress to the point where they begin to show signs of upward pressure and consideration for entry.

Here's a look at the 2-Day, 4-Day and 7-Day TF's:

Comment: That was a nice bounce right off the lower boundary of my pitchfork. Still looks like a LOT of accumulation to me. Bitcoin simply switching from one big player to another.

120m TF:

Comment: 2-Day (48h) TF:



Daily (24h) TF:



480m (8h) TF:



240m (4h) TF:

Comment: The chance of this run down we had before going back up may very well by a TEST after a SPRING in a Wyckoff Accumulation Schematic #1. Not for certain yet. Still waiting to see what plays out. You'll see what I mean in this 3-Day TF below:

Comment: I'm assuming everyone read the text bubble I placed on the Daily TF chart I posted here in comments yesterday. That 1.0 FIB at $6,820 is major resistance level for us to breakout of; as seen from history.

Here is the Daily TF Chart I posted yesterday here in comments:



Here is the 480m TF from today with possible scenario of where we are going and when we might see reversal on Aug. 28th:

Comment: Pardon for another immediate notification from another update. I just thought I would also mention it's likely this may be our last period of downward pressure before finally reversing to upward pressure for a longer (sustained) period of time.

As I suggested with the video portion of this publication: I was expecting the majority of the remainder of August to remain within the Green rectangle before we see a chance for sustained upward pressure and significant upward moves in the price action.
Comment: Daily (1440m) TF:

Comment: For us to have gone up on negative news with the ETF being denied is a very good sign the bottom may very well be in as previously mentioned in a comment on August 20th.

BTCUSD is one of the few (if not the only) pairs in an Accumulation Schematic. Most all of the alt-coin pairs appear to be in Phase B of a LARGE Distribution Schematic. I'll provide a video of ETHUSD soon to let followers know what I mean about ALT-Coin/USD pairs being in a large Distribution Schematic.
Comment: 2-Day TF:

Comment: If you notice the Blue LSMA (Least Square Moving Average) in the Aqua circles in the 12h chart below, you will see it hung out above the 50% level for
quite a while and the price action slowly rose over time. It took some time but it actually kept rising. That's what we could see occur here potentially. Also, not each time the Stochastic RSI came down to the 0% level in this 12h TF back in September 2017 (highlighted in Aqua), the price action did not come down significantly. I'm sure a lot of shorts were squeezed then. Just as could be the case here.

Many margin shorts or those considering to go margin short are getting more concerned about going short with current conditions. This is why I believe the market makers are making this go as slow as a snail. To lull in margin shorts. That's my opinion.

Here's the 12h (720m):



There haven't been this many Short Contracts (positions) in quite a while:

Comment: Looks like a POTENTIAL (chance) of downward pressure one more time before going up; when looking at the Daily, 12h and 6h TF's. However, I'm not concerned about us going too low. They may let us go down just a little more to try to lull in more shorts before reverting to upward pressure for a prolonged period of time. This upcoming downward pressure may last 3 to 7 days. Just because downward pressure MAY be coming does not necessarily mean we will have considerable downward movement in the price action.

Daily TF:

Comment: I know I haven't posted much lately. I've been selling a LOT of hardware from my mining room on eBay. It's been a JOB cleaning up each piece of hardware, testing it, photographing it, creating a listing with proper description, packing and labeling items once purchased and taking them to the carrier for shipping. Answering questions about items, communicating with each buyer through every step of the process until their item arrives. Etc...

Anyway, I thought I would share what I want to see accomplished in the 2-Day TF. I want to see the Phoenix ARI go above the 50% level. We may still have two more 2-Day candles before there's a chance of this occurring. If it does occur, this is good news.

Comment: It appears (When looking at the main Crypto Currency Chat room) that many still believe we are going down to new lows below $5,774.72 on BitStamp. I personally do not see that occurring.

If you bought in anywhere between $5,774.72 and $6,450, you should have no worries in my opinion. It's only up from here for a while with small dips while going up.

Comment: Have a look at the indicators in the higher TF's below.

2-Day TF:



3-Day TF:



The current 4-Day candle began today, August 29, 2018. We need to see what the indicators are showing when they are updated on the next 4-Day candle that begins on September 3, 2018. The indicators should give us an excellent signal as to how bullish or not that we will be in the coming months of 4th Quarter.

Comment: The last update on BTCUSD for today...

Here's the 7-Day TF:

Comment: Looks like the Pit Bull is on: Y'all having a good time? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i0vFid2tKbI

The indicators in the 3-Day are looking good; as in bullish as predicted.

Comment: I know this may sound crazy to everyone, but I'm expecting $9,000 to $9,555 by September 18th to 23rd date range.

How many more $100 jumps do people need to wait in order to get in?

Here's a friendly reminder of what's going on in Phase C right now:

It is in phase C the coin price goes through a decisive test of the remaining supply (June 29, 2018 @ $5,774.72), allowing the “smart money” operators to ascertain whether the stock is ready to be marked up. Reminder: A Spring is a price move below the support level of the trading range established in phases A and B that quickly reverses and moves back into the trading range (June 29, 2018 @ $5,774.72). It is an example of a bear trap because the drop below support appears to signal resumption of the downtrend. In reality, though, this marks the beginning of a new uptrend, trapping the late sellers, or bears. In Wyckoff's method, a successful TEST of SUPPLY usually occurs once more and is represented by a spring or a shakeout (August 10 to 14, 2018). This provides a high-probability trading opportunity. A LOW-VOLUME spring (or a LOW-VOLUME test of a shakeout) indicates that the coin is likely to be ready to move up, so this is a good time to initiate AT LEAST a partial long position.

The appearance of an SOS (Sign of Strength) shortly AFTER a spring or shakeout validates the analysis. I believe the peak of that SIGN OF STRENGTH will be around September 18th to 24th at approximately $9,000 to $9,555 price range. However, in Accumulation Schematic #2, the testing of supply can occur higher up in the trading range without a spring or shakeout; when this occurs, the identification of phase C can be challenging.

This information (above) is found in the following link: https://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:market_analysis:the_wyckoff_method

Here's an image of both a accumulation schematics (below):

Wyckoff Accumulation Schematic #1: https://i.imgur.com/gcrmXTd.png
Wyckoff Accumulation Schematic #2 https://i.imgur.com/54FyNdB.png
Comment: The following chart is the 480m (8h) TF:

Comment: Looks like we fell back to most recent representation of support to 0.786 FIB @ $6,596.31. Well, it looks like we're getting close to it anyway. Judging by how much room remains in the 480m (8h) TF, it is possible to go to the 0.618 FIB @ $6,420.70 before going up. Not certain we will go that low yet though.

I believe everyone is beginning to see WHY it's so important to TRY to get in as low as possible to give yourself as much CUSHION as possible to help prevent emotions from enticing you to make the wrong decisions.

I still say those who got in at $6,450 and lower should not worry. That's my opinion... So, what if it just so happens to fall below $6,450 and you bought in at that price point. I believe you still have much more upside potential than downside.

480m (8h) TF:

Comment: After this low of a drop, this is beginning to appear more like we will follow Accumulation Schematic #2 instead of Accumulation Schematic #1.

I still have a very hard time believing we are in Phase E of a Distribution Schematic and looking for a Selling Climax to drop us down into the $4,000 to $4,500 range.

David
Comment: The likelihood of this being a Wyckoff Accumulation Schematic #1 is certainly diminishing. This is beginning to look more like a Wyckoff Accumulation Schematic #2 I'm afraid. Which means, we may have to wait a bit longer before our "Sign of Strength" in Phase D. Which also means my prediction for $9,000 to $9,555 by September 18 to 24 may be in jeopardy. The price action would have to begin moving quite soon for this to occur. If we were to bounce up to $9,000 to $9,555 price range rather quickly to show "Sign of Strength," our Accumulation Schematic #1 would be back in play AND confirmed. But like I said previously, this is looking more like Accumulation Schematic #2 after this $1,000 drop.

Here's a chart WITHOUT Accumulation Schematic Example posted on the chart:



The following is a link to an image with the same chart (above) included with an example of Wyckoff Accumulation Schematic #2 imposed over the bottom left corner.

https://i.imgur.com/xKZWwVc.png

I'll post a chart or two later with indicators...
Comment: 24h (Daily) TF:

Comment: The following is a link to an image with the same chart (above) included with an example of Wyckoff Accumulation Schematic #2 imposed over the bottom left corner.

https://i.imgur.com/xKZWwVc.png

I'll post a chart or two later with indicators...
Comment: Trading View does NOT have this particular chart. Maybe I'm looking in the wrong place but I'm not seeing it. The website I'm using for the TOTAL coin market cap does not allow me to post a publication on Trading View. Hence the reason I'm posting this chart in this BTCUSD publication.

The website the following chart I'm about to post has a "TOTAL CRYPTO MARKET CAP" chart. Trading View does not. Here is an image from that website of the TOTAL "CRYPTO" MARKET CAP to show we are in Phase B of a LARGE Wyckoff Distribution Schematic:



Here is an image of a Wyckoff Distribution Schematic superimposed in the bottom right corner of the TOTAL crypto market cap chart: https://i.imgur.com/mT8K0up.png
Comment: 2-Day TF for BTCUSD BitStamp:



IMAGE of 2-Day TF for BTCUSD BitStamp WITH Wyckoff Accumulation Schematic #2 in lower right corner: https://i.imgur.com/2g5ZKG5.png

TOTAL CRYPTO CURRENCY MARKET CAP:
So what does that mean in the bigger picture?
Continued drop to X-ish? small jump now to Y-ish followed by a drop deeper than W-ish to XXX?... :)
Alot of value of TA comes from that..
+1 Reply
@NQ95, Apologies I missed this. However, there was no sure sign of what PRICE something was going to at the current levels. I only took the time to show what "schematic" we are in at the time instead of saying price. I'll try to provide "price range" in the future.
+1 Reply
@NQ95,

By the way, "price" could be seen by the arrows I had drawn on the chart on September 6th.
Reply
NQ95 ProwdClown
@ProwdClown, thanks alot for your info :)
+1 Reply
@NQ95, The Blue Dashed Horizontal Rays also provided a guide for "price" in accordance with the arrows.
+1 Reply
Wouldn't be important to note that we are still in a descending triangle?
Reply
ProwdClown Dontlosemoney
@Dontlosemoney,

I'm sorry, but I don't give "shapes" much weight. Not with my strategy. I rely more on the indicators used and Wyckoff Method. However, I'm certainly open ears to listen to anything you wish to contribute/discuss.
+2 Reply
Thanks again for doing this. To me it makes sense how often you post updates on these publications, these markets move and change fast afterall... And I love how you're discussing a number of different timeframes unlike a lot of folks on here.

In your opinion are these Godmode+LSMA settings also optimal and/or applicable for forex and/or stocks?
+2 Reply
@d4rw1n,

Hi Darwin,

Sure, you're welcome!

Agreed, the markets can change rather quickly; which can require an update sooner than anticipated at times.

Yes, I believe we should look at MANY time frames in order to understand and/or get an idea of the actual story being told of the the current condition of the market when looking at many time frame. It's hard to draw a conclusion just from looking at the 4h. It's hard to draw a conclusion from looking at only the Daily or Weekly by themselves. We have to look at MANY time frames to get an idea of what story those many time frames are trying to tell us.

I've found you may need to alter the LSMA input from a range of 28 to 32; depending on the pair you're analyzing. Even in crypto... For example, I like using an input of 30 with LSMA when charting ADAUSDT on Binance. In some cases, I like an input of 28 for LSMA inside the indicator.
+1 Reply
Yes I am beginning to think so as well! Maybe one final drop to 5000 area and then up?
+1 Reply
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