Been quite awhile since I posted anything of substance. Here's my current daily chart. In red is everyone's favorite meme triangle we broke down from, in blue is the log ATH descending resistance turned hopefully support, in yellow are bull divs and my target, and in light blue is a bear div at the most recent major local high.
Overall, I'm of the mind that breakdown from the triangle was significant, especially as it was accompanied by an expansion of volume. See the green trendline - volume was trending heavily downwards and on break of that line we've had noticeably higher volume.
Looking back, you can also see that normal bull divs/bear divs have signified the local low/local high of the last couple trend reversals. If that holds up, we've just recently had another and I think it's fair to expect this one to somewhat play out as well. However, that triangle support will have likely turned into significant resistance; given that, I don't expect it this div to play out with nearly the strength of the other bull div. The blue line is just one I don't expect to ever fall below again; that's not really saying much though given the rate it's descending, while the upper meme triangle resistance is just the line I'll be watching if we *DO* break back through the former triangle support line.
On the very short term, notice (magenta arrow) the LVN around 6.3k. I think it's fair to expect this is showing the resistance we're current;y dealing with. LVNs are a place the price hasn't spent a significant amount of time, meaning it's a place of resistance we either get thrown back from quickly or, when we break it, we just really blow through it.
Verdict: Possibly a short term recovery (for the next ~1-2 weeks maybe?). Medium term (1-2 months?) I think we'll still be searching for more lower lows unless bitcoin does bitcoin things and just blows up; always a possibility. If you're shorting do it at resistance on the time frame you're trading and with smart stops.
Overall, I'm of the mind that breakdown from the triangle was significant, especially as it was accompanied by an expansion of volume. See the green trendline - volume was trending heavily downwards and on break of that line we've had noticeably higher volume.
Looking back, you can also see that normal bull divs/bear divs have signified the local low/local high of the last couple trend reversals. If that holds up, we've just recently had another and I think it's fair to expect this one to somewhat play out as well. However, that triangle support will have likely turned into significant resistance; given that, I don't expect it this div to play out with nearly the strength of the other bull div. The blue line is just one I don't expect to ever fall below again; that's not really saying much though given the rate it's descending, while the upper meme triangle resistance is just the line I'll be watching if we *DO* break back through the former triangle support line.
On the very short term, notice (magenta arrow) the LVN around 6.3k. I think it's fair to expect this is showing the resistance we're current;y dealing with. LVNs are a place the price hasn't spent a significant amount of time, meaning it's a place of resistance we either get thrown back from quickly or, when we break it, we just really blow through it.
Verdict: Possibly a short term recovery (for the next ~1-2 weeks maybe?). Medium term (1-2 months?) I think we'll still be searching for more lower lows unless bitcoin does bitcoin things and just blows up; always a possibility. If you're shorting do it at resistance on the time frame you're trading and with smart stops.