Bitcoin: 495 Pts After 14 Day Swing Trade.

Bitcoin update: Our second target of 4120 was reached today locking in a 495 pt gain on the second half of a position of a swing trade idea that we shared with our followers on February 9th. Throughout the entire management period, we were very clear in our emails and chat room posts that we had no intention of exiting the trade early, as long as the market cooperated. And it was all based on probabilities and price action. Nothing else.

Taking out the 4K resistance provides further confirmation that this space is recovering. The price structure since the 3150 area lows has been increasingly supportive with the establishment of higher lows and shallow retrace periods. Like I wrote in my previous Bitcoin analysis: higher lows often lead to higher highs. There is no need to over complicate this.

We continue to point out that until price takes out the 4600 area resistance, we will stay cautiously optimistic. This means as structure improves, we recognize that the broader trend is more neutral than bullish. A retrace back to the 3600 to 3700 area is very reasonable, especially now that price has reached the 4K psychological resistance area.

The most challenging aspect of this trade (which we will cover in our webinar) was holding through the noise around the high 3800s. There were moments when price action appeared to be likely to retrace, especially with the appearance of a bearish pin bar. Two things kept us in the trade: we had exited HALF of our position at 3825 which gave us MORE flexibility and confidence to hold since our risk was reduced, and second, price action NEVER generated a clear sell signal. Usually if a market is going to sell off, it sells off fast, it does not linger for too long.

In summary, NOW is NOT the time to be buying, it is a time to be locking in profits. I can’t iterate enough how important using predetermined profit targets are. And more importantly knowing how to recognize and adjust when the market negates your original trade premise. Simplicity and sticking to best practices is what helped us minimize our losses, even though we were constantly being criticized for staying on the sidelines more often than not. We are now in a position to fully capitalize on the HIGHER probability environment that is developing, while others will have to expend their energy and resources just to get back to break even. It is the lack of patience and conviction that ruin accounts more than lack of ability. And these traits come by emotional intelligence and experience, not from lines on a chart (or the RSI).