This is an update for my markov analysis of BTCUSD (2 updates preceeded this which are linked as related ideas and describe the concept and methodology).
I will keep this one simple and you can refer to the previous ideas for details. BTC has been following this pretty nicely and any anomalous leaps over 1 transition state in a truncated period have been punished with equal and opposite reactions back to the regular path progression of transitioning 1-state per time period.
The next 3 levels I am seeing are ranked with highest probability (very near term, this week - from there will update accordingly but 1 of the levels could create a change of character or at least initiate the start of one:
Most likely next stop: 30795 (if this occurs in will have to make a more critical decision to consolidate and breakout locally or to reject and retest the 2800s for possible breakdown
Second most likely next stop on the condition 30795 is broken is 32758 - this would open the door for the initiation of the change of character because it would be synonymous to jumping across a creek for those familiar with wyckoff. I would expect an explosive break right through 30795 if this path plays out.
Third most likely is down from here to 28905 , at which point it would test support again and if there is enough pressure could break down and threaten the dreaded 23k (not really dreaded because that would merely set up for the next motive wave, however, this isn't an EWT analysis - this is a local analysis to examine how BTC is navigating this consolidation range in a stochastically-sophisticated way.
Probability does not favor a sharp drop from here, rather, slightly bullish price action which could get the ball rolling for a bullish week in the market due to BTC/ES correlation that has become pretty apparent recently: BTC wears the pants in this relationship.
Best,
Judge Judy
I will keep this one simple and you can refer to the previous ideas for details. BTC has been following this pretty nicely and any anomalous leaps over 1 transition state in a truncated period have been punished with equal and opposite reactions back to the regular path progression of transitioning 1-state per time period.
The next 3 levels I am seeing are ranked with highest probability (very near term, this week - from there will update accordingly but 1 of the levels could create a change of character or at least initiate the start of one:
Most likely next stop: 30795 (if this occurs in will have to make a more critical decision to consolidate and breakout locally or to reject and retest the 2800s for possible breakdown
Second most likely next stop on the condition 30795 is broken is 32758 - this would open the door for the initiation of the change of character because it would be synonymous to jumping across a creek for those familiar with wyckoff. I would expect an explosive break right through 30795 if this path plays out.
Third most likely is down from here to 28905 , at which point it would test support again and if there is enough pressure could break down and threaten the dreaded 23k (not really dreaded because that would merely set up for the next motive wave, however, this isn't an EWT analysis - this is a local analysis to examine how BTC is navigating this consolidation range in a stochastically-sophisticated way.
Probability does not favor a sharp drop from here, rather, slightly bullish price action which could get the ball rolling for a bullish week in the market due to BTC/ES correlation that has become pretty apparent recently: BTC wears the pants in this relationship.
Best,
Judge Judy
Comment:
Well that was pretty cool... most probable level already hit within a few hours of this post. Notice how its trying to decide here if it wants 32758; pay attention to the price action around the diagonal dashed blue line right above that 30795 level - which represents the right-most section diving current and next transition state.
