Something Fishy is Going On with Bitcoin (Fish Attracts Bears)
Ok, we are now trading below the 11000 psychological level in a possible up trend. Wave 1 of a larger Wave 5 has reached 11065. From there we have corrected to 10200. And now we have a possible wave 1 of wave 3 in a larger wave 5 of the up trend. But something fishy is going on and this attracts bears. We have multiple possible wedges forming, another complex WXY correction and low volume which are unusual for the proper and strong up trend. We are also just above the upper channel line of the down trend from 20000 and can still go below it just as smoothly. Whether it's all a bear trap only to give an impression of a weak trend to slaughter some bears on the way up or not remains to be seen. We have the following scenarios:
1. 12345 Up trend:
Breaching 11000 will confirm wave 3 in a wave 5 of an up trend with target near 12500.
If in a few hours we form a trading range just below 11000 with consolidating volume, watch for a precision pump with huge volume to throw the price above 11000.
Avoid trading range - lots of bears will die there. Go long from 11100 on a confirmed breakout.
We can still just touch 11000, form a double top and go down.
2. WXYXZ correction
We can correct more to 10000, have a proper size correction of 38-50%, then retest 11000.
But going below 9960 (0.618 retracement from 11065) would likely confirm even larger correction with 1st target 6000
Breaking below 9300 will invalidate wave 5 and the up trend.
You must understand that we're still likely in a distribution phase of the market, when buyers are still cautiously optimistic after a huge pullback and the market makers use this sentiment to manipulate prices to go up just enough to dump it on retail investors. Then a natural sell-off occurs and another fake pump/dead cat's bounce follows. This phase usually ends with a colossal capitulation sell volume. And after a long trading range at the bottom consolidation phase begins. They use different techniques invisible to untrained eye: wash trading, hidden margin walls, arbitrage bots, stop-loss and liquidation hunting. Popular patterns now become unreliable and break easily which confuses beginner investors. Market makers probably can paint the chart as they want with directional volume influxes and carefully measured buys/sells to give appearance of a market activity. They stopped printing Tether which arguably was the main price driver, so it's simply not possible for Bitcoin to reach ATH now. We need lots and lots of new buyers to do that, lots of real volume. At this point market makers only have limited resources, they are still distributing their bitcoins. For instance, they can sell bitcoins for alt coins temporarily driving the alt usd pairs up, only to dump them for usd which does not affect the price of bitcoin. Then they use usd to pump up bitcoin and kill some bears on the way up. Then they go short at a margin and let it pullback to a certain level - a carefully managed fall. Sometimes TA doesn't help and the trader must try to guess what the market makers are doing, what's the plan. And the plan at this point probably is to breach 11000.
Please don't trade based only on my analysis. I'm not responsible for your losses.
1. 12345 Up trend:
Breaching 11000 will confirm wave 3 in a wave 5 of an up trend with target near 12500.
If in a few hours we form a trading range just below 11000 with consolidating volume, watch for a precision pump with huge volume to throw the price above 11000.
Avoid trading range - lots of bears will die there. Go long from 11100 on a confirmed breakout.
We can still just touch 11000, form a double top and go down.
2. WXYXZ correction
We can correct more to 10000, have a proper size correction of 38-50%, then retest 11000.
But going below 9960 (0.618 retracement from 11065) would likely confirm even larger correction with 1st target 6000
Breaking below 9300 will invalidate wave 5 and the up trend.
You must understand that we're still likely in a distribution phase of the market, when buyers are still cautiously optimistic after a huge pullback and the market makers use this sentiment to manipulate prices to go up just enough to dump it on retail investors. Then a natural sell-off occurs and another fake pump/dead cat's bounce follows. This phase usually ends with a colossal capitulation sell volume. And after a long trading range at the bottom consolidation phase begins. They use different techniques invisible to untrained eye: wash trading, hidden margin walls, arbitrage bots, stop-loss and liquidation hunting. Popular patterns now become unreliable and break easily which confuses beginner investors. Market makers probably can paint the chart as they want with directional volume influxes and carefully measured buys/sells to give appearance of a market activity. They stopped printing Tether which arguably was the main price driver, so it's simply not possible for Bitcoin to reach ATH now. We need lots and lots of new buyers to do that, lots of real volume. At this point market makers only have limited resources, they are still distributing their bitcoins. For instance, they can sell bitcoins for alt coins temporarily driving the alt usd pairs up, only to dump them for usd which does not affect the price of bitcoin. Then they use usd to pump up bitcoin and kill some bears on the way up. Then they go short at a margin and let it pullback to a certain level - a carefully managed fall. Sometimes TA doesn't help and the trader must try to guess what the market makers are doing, what's the plan. And the plan at this point probably is to breach 11000.
Please don't trade based only on my analysis. I'm not responsible for your losses.
1) Now we are likely to have a small correction to 10750 and another attempt to break above 11065 which will confirm the start of wave 3 in wave 3 in a larger wave 5. As usual we will need huge volume pump to do it.
You can watch the whole price drama at bitcoinity, combined order books to sell exactly at the peak. When the left and right parts level up the demand meets supply. When the left part is insanely larger - there are lots of buyers and the price is likely to increase in a few moments as they chew up the sell walls on the right. This will repeat many times. Walls will rise, level and fall on each side. If the price doesn't move up for like 10 mins - sell, because it's not likely to break the level at this time and will pullback.
2) Double top is officially formed, which is a bearish sign. We can go straight down.