Yesterday we touched the upper edge of our weekly down trend channel (marked in red).
Many decided to sell here. Important shadow, price blocked by the daily EMA200, the correction clearly began at that stage.
Yesterday we went back on the 0.38 fibo retracement level. In case buyers are capable to defend this level on a weekly basis; I will consider that as a good sign of bulls mindset. Going deeper would not compromise the short term trend even if we touch the weekly horizontal support level (in green / currently exactly on the same level as the weekly EMA 100). Closing below this level will be a strong bearish message to all of us; in that case I imagine we will quickly go and touch the 6.5k level again.
My ideas:
-1st scenario: the price won’t pass through the 0.38 fibo level; next step 8.6k and later 10.5k. For me, low probability: 10/15% - possibility to take a trade after a wide candlestick combined with volumes (maybe +/- 8.6k)
- Correction up to a level between 7.8k and 7.2k – 50/60% - no trade before an ST reversing signal
- Break of the weekly horizontal support level (in green) and 6.5k again and why not below – 30% - no trade (don’t want to short BTC in this period, better to do it in a FOMO period)
Many decided to sell here. Important shadow, price blocked by the daily EMA200, the correction clearly began at that stage.
Yesterday we went back on the 0.38 fibo retracement level. In case buyers are capable to defend this level on a weekly basis; I will consider that as a good sign of bulls mindset. Going deeper would not compromise the short term trend even if we touch the weekly horizontal support level (in green / currently exactly on the same level as the weekly EMA 100). Closing below this level will be a strong bearish message to all of us; in that case I imagine we will quickly go and touch the 6.5k level again.
My ideas:
-1st scenario: the price won’t pass through the 0.38 fibo level; next step 8.6k and later 10.5k. For me, low probability: 10/15% - possibility to take a trade after a wide candlestick combined with volumes (maybe +/- 8.6k)
- Correction up to a level between 7.8k and 7.2k – 50/60% - no trade before an ST reversing signal
- Break of the weekly horizontal support level (in green) and 6.5k again and why not below – 30% - no trade (don’t want to short BTC in this period, better to do it in a FOMO period)