HeyJonBray

Bitcoin testing crucial Fib level... Where's the volume?

Long
HeyJonBray Updated   
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin
Bitcoin is looking absolutely great right now, sitting pretty at the 1.618 Fib extension from the March low. This is my first analysis which includes the "D.M. Ward Method".
  • At this level, I would expect profits to be taken, leading to a pullback, possibly to the 100 MA @ ~ $11.5k.
  • On March 12, substantial selling volume led to a 64% decrease in price. The following day saw almost equal volume, but was only able to recoup a small portion of lost volume.
  • While the Red RSI is increasing and the energy (grey area) still above 56, there's just not substantial enough volume for me to make a solid decision one way or another.

I anticipate traders who either lost money or bought in in March to take profits at this point, these will probably be immediately bought up. So we likely have some sideways movement to look forward to, a good chance to get some more information. Daily candle close above the 1.618 level, accompanied by volume to back it up would no doubt drive the market to test the ATH by the end of the year.

Now is the time to:
1. Stick to your strategies!
2. Keep a close eye on different time intervals for any divergence.
3. Not FOMO! Now is a great time for accumulation if you keep a safe stop-loss.
4. Watch for whale moves: large increase in trading volume is going to make or break positions here.

Personally, I'm taking some profits now, placing a sell order just below the psychological $15k level, with a stop loss at our previous high of $12.4k.
The recent news of PayPal offering crypto soon is some good news to sell on, and now that we have multiple major consumer focused payment platforms offering Bitcoin, I'm considering things bullish for quite a while. But PayPal has a lot of customers, and is going to need a lot of Bitcoin to meet their demand, and they're not going to want to buy at the yearly high either.

The big question now is when's the pullback, and how far?

Interested to hear your thoughts! Is BTC going to cool off for a little while or are we going parabolic to a new ATH?
Don't forget to like if you've found this helpful!

Big thanks to David @WyckoffMode for the indicator and all the work put into educating traders and providing quality analyses.

Cheers!
Trade active:
Opened trade with BTC purchased between $4.5-$6.8k (win-win).
Keeping fairly tight stop-losses in case this is just a breakout in response to PayPal news.
Unless the volume drops out I'll be sticking with the following for now, percentage is amount of BTC allocated to each target:

T1- 50% : $13.4k - Stop loss: $11.5k
T2- 20% : $14.1k - Stop loss: $11.3k
T3- 10% : $15.0k - Stop loss: $11.0k
T4- 10% : $17.2k - Stop loss: $10.7k
Trade active:
We'll see what Monday brings, but BTC looks like it may move sideways for a while as re-distribution and accumulation takes place at what could very well be a new support level.

Currently opened daily dollar cost average purchases for the duration of sideways movement while I await a solid indication of a trend continuation/reversal before going back to weekly purchases.

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