DarkPenciI

BTC and Market Update

Long
BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin
The Inverse H&S failed and got rejected at the last top and failed to retrace back to the neckline to try to break it again which was the original scenario I had. I believe the recent 4 FUDs caused the pattern to fail but I don't think we are in a bear market yet. The FUDs were mostly weak and took advantage of a weak market to drive the price down significantly. We initially bounced off previous shoulder support but did not have enough volume to push through and dropped down again this morning to around 9k. We have a significant FIB support at around 8.8k along with a 200EMA support at 9.1k which I believe is acting as support, but the volume on the buy side is weak again and has not convinced me this is over. There may be bigger buys coming in later to break us out but until than we should prepare for another leg down like yesterday. The indicators shows that bears are also tiring out and won't be able to drive prices down by too much. The next leg down may be a short one to 8.8k where the exact fib level is and hopefully we will get a strong bounce. At worst case scenario I see a drop to 8.2k level where we have our 0.618 FIB level which is usually a very strong support. It is concerning that we are sitting at around the long term bear trend line and possibly looking to break below, but if the supports bounces us off strong as expected we should be able to clear out convincingly. Personally, I'll be setting stop losses close to current price points by finding trend lines and looking to buy back in near support levels as we progress. On the other hand, the ALTs are holding BTC valuations well still and some have even broken out of their down trend showing signs that the market as a whole has not gone bear.

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