piriya33

BTC/USD No clear signal today

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / Dollar
Looking at the BTCUSD             chart, there ae several ways to count the waves but all (save one, in a world ending scenario) points towards a major up trend with a Super Cycle wave 3 that could potentially reach $2000 or higher.

Mean while, on shorter-term view, a primary wave 5 is coming to an end, or have ended. The five waves should make up cycle wave 1 at around $870

Since the intermediate wave 2 in next degree primary wave 5 is a flat, by rule of alternation the intermediate wave 4 should be zig zag correction this may or may not have already happened, the only way to know is to study the current situation.

From this perspective, an intermediate wave 4 is forming, with A and B in place, (1) the fibonacci target suggests a C at around $630. If the target is touched and rebound then the wave will be confirmed, (2) if the target is broken through and price went lower than $623 then we could expect a deep zig zag 4 which could reach as far as $539 and lastly (3) if price does not come down any further than $665 then it might mean that intermediate wave 4 have already ended on the 26th of June and a smaller minor wave 1 and 2 has formed then we'll be in a minor wave 3 from now on.

And what if intermediate wave 4 is already over then what are we seeing? Well, the intermediate 3 could've been a 5 (thought not likely as the Fibonacci target will not be met) Then we could be looking at a intermediate wave A, B and will eventually followed by a deep C at around $537

All in all, over the short term period (yes, a few weeks for me is a very short term.) I see four probable possibility, with three resulting in a bearish movement 1 in the opposite direction.

But should I short? two out of the four main possibilities suggests a small bear move to form the end of intermediate wave 4 which is a short travel from the current price meaning low reward at a relatively high risk. If, however, price breaks through $623 then we could be looking at a longer target but the risk will also be much higher.

In the end I decided to do nothing today and wait for the patterns to play out a little while longer and if you agree you might as well do the same.
I'm deeply confused by your EW.
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Why? Maybe I can help clarify.
Well this is just one take on it though, I have a few more but Trading View does not have a multi scenario switch.
And I forgot to turn off the Fibos and other unrelated lines before posting so it can be a bit confusing.
But if I'm wrong anywhere, do tell :)
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Medium-term Bitcoin still has some ways to go.

Perhaps this is better.
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BTCana piriya33
I have never used EWs so pretty much I'm not sure if you are right or wrong lol. I still greatly appreciate your explanation.
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I have trouble counting a five wave impulse within circle wave 1 which makes me believe this larger move up is a corrective rally. Another problematic area is circle wave 3. It is not fitting, especially if this is the start of a larger rise, that the fifth wave is truncated and follow by a flat correction with a truncated C wave. A truncated fifth wave suggests buying strength is running out and it's the end of a rise. A truncated flat in this situation suggests buying is strong which doesn't make sense following a truncated fifth wave. Your chart in the comments is more plausible but again wave 1 of 1 does not count well as a five wave impulse.
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