BTC/USD 020218 Bearish Trend Continuation

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
BTC has seen to continue its bear run with no sign of return just yet. Here is my updated opinion on what I believe we will see over the next month.
In short, I believe the BTC bear run is to continue towards 1st of March.

To start off, the 200-day MA has been mentioned many, many times by several analysts and and that it is likely that BTC will reach this point. I think this is correct. With everyone having the same idea of support being at around $8000USD, then a lot people will be placing their buy orders around this point. Consequently, BTC price will rise again. On the graph, this point has been extrapolate and highlighted by the red eclipse. My analysis shows that the 200-day MA will be touched around the 11th-17th of Feb.

As you can,there appears to be a wedge which I've drawn in fluoro green and purple and BTC has followed this trend quite nicely so far thus increasing its projection to move towards the 200-day. However, I believe instead of bouncing right back at the 200-day MA, there is a very likely chance that we continue this downtrend towards 1st of March to follow the descending wedge pattern before we see a return of BTC .

Looking at the historical data, we can see that there was a clear M-top created between the 17th Dec and 7th Jan which ensured that this downtrend was coming. To solidify my above point with this M-top, the downtrend has now been fluctuating between the lower Bollinger Band and the 20-day EMA . Hence, I believe that this trend will continue and stay below the 20-day EMA which coincides with the wedge I have created.

In conclusion, I do believe the downtrend is going to continue throughout this month by following through this wedge . This is reinforced with the FUD around BTC and cryptocurrency. Until we hit this support levels and close in on this wedge , I don't think we will see much exuberance, if any at all.
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