Taiwan_Bear

BTC - 2nd stop @ around $6050

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
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Hi All,

As expected, the first support @ $7230.5 (the yellow trendline from my previous post) was not strong enough to hold the drop and start a new bull run.

The above chart is something that I updated on my Twitter yesterday, in which I envisaged a possible formation of a bear flag . Nothing much has changed since, Below is the link to the thread: https://twitter.com/TaiwanBear_TV/status...

The used-to-be support @ $7230.5 is clearly a resistance. EMA20 is closing in that price level acting as another resistance. New FIBO set-up (setup 1) seems to be valid by looking at the price action between each Fib level. Plus, it looks like it needs time to consolidate. Hence, the reason I came up with the bear flag .

It is still too early to tell, but I just want to give you an update as it looks like the bear flag can break down at any time. But please keep in mind that it can certainly break the bear flag to the upside. However, I think it is less likely, especially when BTC is that close to test the major support at $6000.

If you look at all the 3x FIBO set-ups on my chart above, you can see $6000 is indeed a very strong support. FIBO setup 1 shows me 1.618 retrace @ 6043.6. Setup 2 shows me 1.618 retrace @ 6027.3. As well, setup 3 shows me 1 retrace @ 6000, which is also the low on the 6th Feb, and double bottom . These all indicate that there is major support at $6000. And if you notice the size of the current formation of bear flag , you can see that it also indicates a price target at around $6000.

So what I am going to do next is to place buy positions using around 30%-35% of my assets between the price range of $6000 - $6237.1. I have highlighted this price range in the chart as the "potential buy". I am not going to set a SL on this trade as I am quite confident that the price will go back up above this price level in the near future if, it does drop below $6000. Then, I will take my profits between $7103.8 & 7577.9. My focus will be around the $7300 mark. And the reason for taking the profits at that price range is because I can see there is quite some resistance there, and the fact that my ultimate target is still $4436 mid April.

Taiwan Bear

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Please note this post is provided for informational purpose only. It is not a financial advice to buy/sell.

Some tips for you:
- Set up an entry/exit strategy for every trade, with the ideal risk/reward ratio (2+)
- Understand that every trade carries a risk, and don’t expect you can make profits from every trade
- When you follow a trader on TV, you want to follow someone who looks at the big picture, not just counting EW. And that trader should identify a trend/pattern that you don’t see.
Comment: Dear all, by looking across the Cryptos market, there might be a chance that BTC will surge up by 30%+. So I have adjusted the TP to around 7.9k - 8.3k.

And just to show you ETH as an example as to why I think 30%+ profits is possible:
Comment: Instead of hitting the major support at 6k, BTC rebounced almost exactly at the 1.414 retrace @ $6424.4. This could mean that a re-test of EMA50 & trend line (connects the low on 15/07/17, 16/09/17 & 06/02/18) is likely to happen. And there might be 2 bear flags between now and the 12th April in which I have circled in yellow & red in the chart below.

My predictions - "$4436 between 12-14 April" is still in play.

Comment: BTC has broken the black trendine, EMA20, as well as the bull flag to the upside, without much volume. And BTC is now testing them as support. MACD is showing bullishness and RSI has lots of room to go up. I think BTC is now in corrective wave and should retrace back up to about 7.6-8.2k.

I believe many people who have short positions have their SL set at around 7250 - 7300, meaning if BTC hits that price level many of the SL will be activated and the price can surge up to 7.6k in no time.

If you currently have no position in BTC, I believe it is better to wait for confirmation.

Comment: Hi all,

Please don't trade until further confirmation.

There might be an inverse h&s as there is some support around $6700. But nothing is clear at the moment.

Comments

thanks for the update man
+3 Reply
@ogoz23, :)
+2 Reply
this is how i see it

PT.1


PT.2


PT.3
+2 Reply
Spot on Taiwan_Bear! Thank you for your updates, they are quite useful.

Practicing how to use the fib series by breaking down your analysis, and seeing how you are measuring support/resistance levels.

Thank you so much for your continuous content!
+2 Reply
@anon541, Thank you! That's exactly the reason that I want to share my idea - to share the logic behind my trade. Whether the predictions is right or wrong, I hope I can help my readers to change the way they think and make profits.

The fib series are very useful. You can make millions from it.
+2 Reply
Any concern about the 150 and 200 Ma starting to level out and start sloping down? I've heard that is a signal of a possible long term bear market that may last a while.
+2 Reply
@dcron, I only see the EMA as resistance and support. But I do believe that we are going to be in the bear market for some time.

As you can see there are three major supports in terms of Fib structure as well as double bottom. Plus, MACD is showing a tiny bit of bullishness and RSI is currently at a reasonable low level.

I think I should be able to make around 10-20% from this trade.
+2 Reply
THANK YOU. So clear.... thank you very much.
+2 Reply
Taiwan_Bear pkilchermann
+1 Reply
Thank you for the ETH chart! That is a great buy if it happens.
+1 Reply
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