When everyone screams recession; run the other way!

DJCFD:DJI   Dow Jones Industrial Average Index
You've heard it so many times "greedy when others are fearful", but fear takes hold and sways your judgement.

What are the common sense clues?
  • The talking heads are trying to "call" the recession before it happens simply for an "I told you so" moment, but where were they before 2008 and earlier?
  • Why can't we make some serious profits after 10 years of an absolute garbage economy?
  • Headlines for the past two years have been all about Elon's gaffs
  • Very few called the recent FANG "crash"
  • All of the technicals are moving in the right direction
  • Fundamentals are easy... when EVERYONE is calling for a recession, we know the opposite will unfold

FINALLY: Show me an historical All Time High back to the great depression, then show me breaking that ATH , finding support, and it not creating a new bull run. The trend is your friend and stocks are in full bull mode with no signs of reversal.

Dec 17
Comment: Here we go:
Dec 19
Comment: stop hunt looks complete
Dec 21
Comment: Stop Hunt full analysis:
...I've been in the markets too long. Look, it's your money; not mine. When I make a call on fundamentals, the talking circles stop talking because it's time to listen. These are much different times financially. This is the start of the greatest recession you'll ever witness in your lifetime. Bet on it.
racethehare thehoplite
@thehoplite, We've been in recession for the last decade. Thanks for the comment, much appreciated!
dane4 thehoplite
@thehoplite, oh boy, this aged poorly. I hope you weren't short.
@dane4, you win the award for dumbest comment
dane4 racethehare
@racethehare, I am replying to @thehoplite about this being the start of the greatest recession. Here we are a year later at ATHs. Your analysis was clearly the correct one.
I've got news for you...There's no more debt available to spur the market without having severe asset inflation, as seen in the market left in our rear-view mirror. This economy is over. They're screaming recession because for the first time, everyone is aware that everyone is f---ing broke, and the fake economic numbers are not fooling anyone any longer. I pulled out in January, and I still don't regret it. I thought I would back in May, but I trusted my abilities and my experience and stayed the hell out. This is done.
+4 Reply
racethehare thehoplite
@thehoplite, yes, it was the same scenario in the 80's. Let's see how it plays out this time
Kp15460 racethehare
@racethehare, difference was interest rates were in double digits in 80's. Market is floundering at 2-3% now. Fed has to raise rates so they have the tool of reducing rates when recession hits. There is no buy volume down here, there will be no trade deal, and 2018 consisted of companies using trump tax cuts to buy back stocks.
@Kp15460, No buy volume? Interesting you would say then when the DJI just had its fourth BEST day ever, only less than two weeks after DJI's best day EVER. hmmm...
Kp15460 racethehare
@racethehare, sure price action went up, but volume hasn't. The trend is still down until it's not. Do you trade based on technical analysis or best/worst days? Fomo buying institutional bags. No fundamentals to support price action. 9 year uptrend on decreasing volume supported by 0% interest rates and market flounders at 3%. Interest rates were 6% before 2008 and Fed was able to reduce rates to spark reversal. Ultimately, fed needs to raise rates so they can reduce if needed. Market hopium on rate halts(indication of dismal world economy), Faux China Trade Deal(Democrats won't approve anything next 2 years). Lets see 76-88% retracement

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