Volatile_Victory
Long

BTCUSD: Final Leg Down of Wave (4)? Or further to go?

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / Dollar
Our last post highlighted the idea that Wave (E) may not have been completed (see related link) and it appears that alternative has come to fruition. We were expecting a move down to the 61.8% fib ratio of Wave (C) but we have moved well past that. The next target would be $613.58 which we may have just hit (or almost hit) while I am typing this.

This would make a perfect LONG opportunity as we have very strong resistance in the $610-$614 area:
  • The bottom of the Ichimoku Cloud on the daily chart is at $611.39
  • Wave (C) low was $610.10
  • The 78.6% fib length of Wave (C) is $613.58
  • Five waves down can be counted on this latest drop therefore we should get relief soon (if not immediately).

Place your stops slightly below $610 and we have a potential for a large move up with minimal risk to the down side. (Current price is $621)

If we hit our stops around $610 then it appears that the alternate wave count as denoted on the chart in red is in play. This alternative would have us going down further to conclude Wave (Y) and ultimately Wave (4). If our $610 stop is hit then we will post another update outlining targets and alternatives.
The strong resistance around $610 as outlined in our chart yesterdayseems to have held wave 5 down.

We now see strong divergence on the hourly chart which should confidently conclude this wave and at minimum provide a corrective wave up to $625-635 and best case reverse this down turn up for good.

snapshot


There is a decent chance (>50%) that today is the cheapest that we'll see bitcoin for awhile.
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I think we may see $480s before it over.
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