mk_trader

BTCUSD Testing 4200-4100 support level

BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin
I have been trying to put my latest EW count (blue) into contex, so I've tryed to plot super-cycle and sub-cycles of EW. Standard EW moves in dominate trend of 5 cycles/waves and 3 retracement waves. There are 5 waves in dominate trend, three impulses 1, 3 and 5 and two retracement waves 4 and 2. Retracement wave has 3 cycles denoted A, B and C. Each of those, 1-5 and A-C consists out of another impulse or retracement EW cycle. For example, wave one in dominate cycle, which is impulse wave, can be broken down to 5 cycles of smaller dominate trend EW.

And this is what I am trying to do here, to break down the "super-cycle" (drak greeen) EW to it's smaller parts. Cycle 3, of green EW is nicely broken down to 5 smaller cycles (pinkish color). For retracement wave, wave 4, following wave 3, decomposition is not so obvious (red color), but there is some guidance from Fibb levels that gives hope that this is not a lost cause. One must note that EW is not magic solution to every situation, so this may be one of those, but I tend to think that it's just the matter of decomposing in a right way, it's obviouisely more complicated and needs more work to be put into it. Fibb level for leg C ending is right where it should be, coincides with starting of nex EW count (blue one).

Blue EW count, is the reason I'm doin all of that. Idea is to test the EW count thgough decomposition of previous waves, to confirm leg 5 of super-cycle (dark green) and it's decomposition into smaller 5 cycle EW. So far so good, blue EW cound follows price, however, 4200-4100 has been tested before, it's strong support point. Conformation of newst EW cycle (blue one) will be bouncing of lowest point of leg 2 towards high of leg 3.

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