Bitcoin 44K Holds New Buy Signal?

Is now the time to buy Bitcoin? While a new buy signal is in the process of developing, the broader structure at the moment is not favorable. Reward/risk can be defined from 44K, but its the probability that we get follow through from here is what is not obvious or clear.

First, it is important to understand that I am evaluating from a swing trade perspective ONLY. This means I am only considering levels and RISK from a larger time frame, in this case, the daily chart. Price action on smaller time frames is more appropriate if you are looking for day trades. If you don't understand the difference in terms of risk, you should not risk any real money at all.

Buy signals are not created equal. It is the context around the buy signal that makes it more or less compelling. In this situation, the 44K support is holding, but there are a series of mini lower highs and inside bars, that are still within the range of the large bearish candle that developed off of the 52K area. The buy signal would be the break of the high of the previous candle which has occurred.

What makes this less compelling is: the current candle has not closed and inside bars are often a momentum continuation pattern. Currently, the momentum is bearish. This will change if price can start pushing minor resistances, which would be 47K.

When faced with a very conflicted situation like this, YOU have to determine if you are AGGRESSIVE or conservative. IF the current candle closes strong, the AGGRESSIVE trade would be to go long with a stop below 44K. Along with that you NEED to be prepared for another fake out since you would be buying into bearish momentum.

If 44K can hold again and a CLEAR reversal formation unfolds, that would be a more compelling setup based on the rules I follow. IF 44K breaks, the next support is 41K.

Aggressive trades require a lot of attention and decisive adjustment in order to minimize risk even further (if you do not want to hold for the stop out). That's why if you are less experienced, it is much easier and less stressful to take the conservative route and wait. The problem is a lack of experience often correlates to an extreme lack of patience. This is a mind game before anything else.

Thank you for considering my analysis and perspective, I hope you find it helpful.