mrdiesel

Bitcoin: Move to 5500 on the Cards after 7300 breakdown

Short
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD   Bitcoin
I would expect a bounce to high 7000s but that has yet to happen. This likely will take its time to play out if it does occur. The 5500 dollar region is a major fib from this whole move up and I see lots of sentiment saying that they believe bitcoin will bottom at 6400 which is the point of control on the weekly( on the volume profile). I would think we smash through it down much like we smashed through it up in the spring on our journey to 13,800. The 200 moving average on the weekly right now is at 4900 and it provided the bottom at 3,000 last December. This is another potential target on this down move. I Would think we would eventually break down on the 200 weekly moving if too many traders long that region to provide liquidity for the market makers. I can see a move down to 5500 and then another up move to retest the former 7300 support. Many traders were bullish on the 7300 to 10,300 bounce even though it was a retest of the 9400 descending triangle formed during summer. Many were predicting a move to 12,000 to fill the cme gap at 11,800 and very few were calling for a breakdown back to 7300. I can see many longing this all the way down to 6k. Sentiment seems to have shifted and many rightfully so are bearish. Watch for 4 hour bullish divergences to form that would provide evidence for a higher move to the high 7,000s before resuming the bear trend. When the one trade is crowded that is when the opposite happens much like when people were expecting 12k after consolidation from the 7300 to 10300 bounce. I am currently bearish and don't want to enter long term positions until I See bull divergences on the daily and will treat trades based on 4 hour bull divergences with good risk management. I am thinking potential bottom at 5k that would be a wick on the weekly possibly down to 4200. This likely will take its time to play out if it does happen. I Don't expect 5k to be hit in one shot and think we see big relief rallies much like in 2018.
Disclaimer

The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.