Bitcoin's Bottom: 6100-5900 in 8-16 days

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   Bitcoin / U.S. Dollar
Hello all,
If you've followed me for a while, you may have noticed that my calls/analysis have mostly been very accurate with consistency.
I usually focus on intra-day targets rather than long-term view.

Since I've recently been asked a lot "What do I think is Bitcoin's bottom", I've decided to have a look into this.

At the moment, I believe that Bitcoin's "next" bottom should be between the 6100-5900 $USD price ranges.
I can't say if this will be the lowest point we will see Bitcoin at for the rest of the year. I haven't attempted to analyze that far ahead.


My guess on Bitcoin's next moves:
As mentioned in my last post, I was looking out for a "small ABC correction" on BTC . So far, that appears to be shaping up.
I'm looking for a C-wave up to ~6605, & will short to 6400-6300, if things are looking ok.


Note that it is risky to enter Long to attempt riding C-wave up, in the case that this correction already completed, and we are on the next wave down.
Use stop-losses if attempting this.
It's safer to short the top @ ~6605.
Safest to look for price dropping before shorting.


Follow me on Twitter for more timely and consistent updates: @AndrewEDavis
Comment: Bitcoin correction to 6605 met. Drop to 6390 met.
FAILED however to sustain bounce after drop target.
BTC Flash Crashed and Pumped 300 points 6400 to 6100 & back.
This could be good news for us however, as it may accelerate the completion of this down-trend.

Prices fell into my Altcoin Long orders & I sold bounce at nice profits.
Rode waves to 6605 & shorted there to drop zone.
Didn't play out 100% as expected with the flash Dump/Pump, but, 100% of trades were very profitable. :)
I hope some of you took nice profits on these calls.

I've had 6100 as a major support & 6350 drop zone target since days ago, have a look:

I didn't expect the flash Dump/Pump, so I didn't zoom out to show 6100.

I'll wait for things to settle a bit before analyzing next targets. Not safest to trade right now.
Comment: My thoughts on #BTC's next move:
(Not the best time to predict after that 300 point Flash Dump/Pump, I'll still share some thoughts).

BTC either drops here or pushes a little more to ~6405 first.
Then likely down to ~6000 or double-bottom ~6100.
I think it doesn't get below 5875 for now.

Comment: I see some possibility of Bitcoin either ending this current downtrend (or staging a relief rally up), within the next 24 hours, or within a week or so, depending what is the correct wave count.
I'll be going Long on orders after this current drop I'm expecting.

Comment: At the moment I'm not maintaining a particular count for Bitcoin.
It's current movement is uncertain; it's best to wait for a decisive move before entering trades.
Once I get more clarity I'll try to update with a count and/or targets.
Comment: Possibly Bitcoin decides next direction soon by breaking out of this triangle (whichever direction is does).

Comment: Things are beginning to look more Bullish for #Bitcoin and #Altcoins.
However, the case for the bearish scenario (breaking downward) is that Altcoins had a decent little run up today, and look like they need to retrace a bit with $BTC for another push up tomorrow.
Comment: I just said "Altcoins had a decent little run up today, and look like they need to retrace a bit with BTC for another push up tomorrow".

Moments after I said this, Altcoins started Dumping. :D
EOS for example.
Maybe they are hurrying now to get prepared for another move up. :)

Comment: What a coincidence...

First I said: "Altcoins had a decent little run up today, and look like they need to retrace a bit with BTC for another push up"
Altcoins shortly after start Dumping.

Then I said: "Maybe they are hurrying now to get prepared for another move up. :)"
Bitcoin starts Pumping.

Comment: (Sorry I didn't post this as quickly as I wanted, BTC started moving again while typing. Needed to fill orders.)

BTC may be able to get to 6490-6570 with this current pump. The higher target you aim for (either exit Long or enter Short), increases chances not reaching target.

Comment: BTC could be making a Bull Flag.
I'm definitely not certain of this yet, nor is this necessarily my main count. I just wanted to point something out.

There is a chance that Bitcoin's entire move today was a large wave-4 ABC correction of 5 waves down.

It's too early to be able to verify this, but I wanted to mention so you can look out for any signs of this happening and react in time.

Comment: BTC made the Bull Flag I said I thought was forming 7hrs ago.
Price may pull back to ~6360 before attempting to move up again.
This may be good news for Bulls as it makes the scenario I pointed out of an immediate wave-5 drop less likely, as wave-4 would now retrace too heavily.

Comment: I think it's possible that #Bitcoin could correct deeper than stated in my last post depending on the larger wave count.
Possibility to fall a bit sharply to ~6290 also.
I'll just label these drop areas of interest, and one can observe the velocity of drop to approximate target.

Comment: BTC fell right to my main drop target mark of 6360 so far.
I've exited Short positions there in nice profit. Also rode the wave up in Long with good profits.
Looks like it could drop lower still, but I prefer to secure my profits and look for good re-entry once this settles a bit.

Comment: Leaving some general thoughts on what BTC may do.
BTC could attempt another wave up today & may get to the yellow box range.
Do remember that I posted an Caution alternative scenario to keep in mind (image 2, but seeming less likely now).

Need to sleep, will analyze better when I wake.

Comment: I placed orders to attempt this ride up.
They got filled at bottom of this drop, but I've just exited all orders in profit.

BTC may head for another subwave down; if it does, 7300 support may hold
I don't feel 100% with count; I'll play it safe & not have any open orders while I sleep.
Comment: Not that I'm fully un-confident with my count.
It's just better risk and money management to not over-trade, and not take trades when you feel some uncertainty.
There's always many other days/times for next trades.
Comment: I called this one exactly again? :)
I hope some of you were able to take profits from this call.

I missed this ride up as I had to sleep & didn't want to leave positions open, for safety.

Now I will look for signs of this breaking down and not having another wave up before opening Shorts.

I also want to analyze this structure more.
It's possible that the correction/short uptrend is not complete, if this is only subwave-A of wave-B in a large ABC.
As we had 1 more small leg down below 6360, this may change count.
Will try to update in a bit.

Comment: BTC seems preparing to drop again soon.
I'm not 100% certain on the current count (if the correction is fully complete).

I've outlined significant support areas, where price could drop to/hold/bounce.

It's possible we get 5 waves down to ~6000.
If trading, best observe & react accordingly.

Comment: Keep in mind also that there is a possibility that BTC could have a 3rd impulse wave up to ~7800.
This however is not my main count, but always be prepared in case count may be wrong.
I will be exiting Shorts on profit & re-entering more Shorts if this plays out as 5 waves down.
Comment: I'm waiting before re-setting Short orders.
$BTC nearly mini-pumped into my Short; I do tend to place them safely away in case of unexpected movements.
Possibility that #BTC could try to force 1 more wave up from here, but it could also fall soon. Waiting for clarity before entry
Comment: I'm considering that Bitcoin can attempt one more push up to ~6800 for a 5th subwave.
I won't be entering Long here. Not a wise/safe idea to attempt to ride a 5th subwave up in a larger down-trend.
I'll wait for more confirmation to enter Short whether at current area or ~6800.

Comment: #Bitcoin may start moving downward soon.
I'm updating chart with support regions.
Comment: I believe that BTC may start moving soon. Whether it manages one last push to 6800 (seems less likely) or begins dropping from here.
This trajectory is my guess for the moment, there is limited data & I'm not 100% sure that the correction is complete.
Hopefully we uptrend after.

The yellow box (6440-6340) is a decent support area. It's also possible that BTC drops there and moves up further, if we are currently on wave-3 of 5 upward.
If price breaks through the yellow box, we likely downtrend as 5 waves.

Comment: Very long and drawn out formation $BTC made at the top there... but I believe it's about to finally wrap up soon, and likely start dropping within 10-30 minutes (or less).
Comment: Bitcoin dropped as expected, I think it's about to move soon again.
The wave formations & proportions are a bit odd, so again I'm not 100% on this.
Keep an eye out for it maybe doing something like this (solid arrows).
Still a chance of it pushing higher, but seems less likely.

Comment: Bitcoin's movements of today looks similar to my chart from 13 hrs ago? :)

Y - Dropped to 6440
o - Fakeout Pump/Bull Trap
Y - Dropped to 6340
Y - Bounced to 6440

(Sorry for slower updates and delayed replies - I've been pretty busy. I'll analyze BTC further when I have some time.)

Comment: I think that Bitcoin may possibly move like this over the 8-16 hours:
BTC to: 6600 > 6400

Comment: Note: No assurance that $BTC gets much higher, to 6600.
It seems a bit weak bullishly at the moment, and we've seen a lot of failed/truncated Bull Flags recently.
Comment: I've exited my Long positions already in decent profit.
Once I saw BTC price stalling to get further I exited at the top of this current subwave.
Maybe it could still push higher, maybe the Bull Flag isn't complete,
but it seems safer to me to take my profit now than guess
Comment: BTC touched the bottom of my of my target area and appears to be dropping. I did alert well in advance (mins after posting chart) that 6600 avg target seemed more unlikely.

If BTC continues dropping as I'm expecting, maybe a slight bounce around 6440 before dropping a bit more.

Comment: Note that I do still see a slight possibility of this being a near complete Bull Flag (which could cause a last wave-5 to ~6600) however it looks less likely with time.
Comment: I looks like BTC is still in line with my last targets, only that we apparently had a disproportional 5th subwave which dragged out quite long (I did make clear I was unsure if 5th subwave completed).

Y - Dropped to 6440
Y - Bounced

Now I look for another drop to ~6395.
BTC may uptrend a bit after.


I woke in time earlier to exit Short orders successfully @ drop to 6440 (were entered ~6550).
Woke again a little while ago and entered more Short positions.
All recent trades have been successful and quite profitable.

Comment: This current Bitcoin drop (for the day) may be near complete.
Average Target: ~6400
Target Range: 6420-6380
Lower support (in case of heavy dump): ~6290
Therese a decent chance of short-term uptrend for the coming hours/day.

Comment: I exited Shorts again successfully in profit.
Waiting for a bit of stability then may enter Long (not in any position right now).
Bears seem to be pushing/dumping a bit heavily, could get lower.

Sorry also for any missed replies (more so on Twitter), I've been busier than usual lately.
Brb in a bit.
Comment: I see a possibility for a short-term uptrend or another quick pump on BTC.
I won't be surprised if it could happen soon.
Upside target in the case it does take this direction is ~6615 range.
Note the upper and Lower Support/Resistance labelled in my chart.

Comment: I exited BTC Long positions in nice profit (at the top of that spike minutes ago).

Current pump may be sustained, however I'm not 100% confident on Bullishness to ~6600 right now.

Getting there isn't yet invalid, but recent movements were weak & fractals poorly formed for interpretation.

Also I need to sleep.
Comment: Bitcoin managed to accomplish my next target and even break through it. Nice!

Right now it's hovering around the ~6725 upper resistance I had labeled in case it over-shot.

I hope some of you made nice profit on this call. :)

I did exit Longs early (in good profit) as I needed to sleep & didn't see clear Bullish signs in the previous hours.

I don't regret the decision. Regretting can dull your future decisions.
A rule of mine is:
If less certain about target
Already in good profits
= Take Profits

With that strategy, I rarely take losses. Haven't taken a loss in a while.

I prefer gradual good/great daily profits with barely any losses, than hoping/waiting for Home-run trades.

I did call for a Pump though. It delayed a lot... but eventually came. :)

I'll analyze $BTC further once I get a chance.

Looks possible for #BTC to have a 5th subwave up, but I see heavy upside resistance around 7800 area.

I'm not in a position right now.

Comment: I have labelled the Support & Resistances I see for Bitcoin at the moment.
I think that right now isn't the safest trading area, as things can turn quickly.
I see possibility of BTC managing a push to ~6870.
I may attempt a small Long scalp, but prefer to Short when Top is found.

Comment: I recommend CAUTION in going heavily Long/Short (Crypto/Fiat) over the next day or two.

See my post from a week ago, where I mentioned there is some possibility that we may have already completed the current downtrend, or could bounce to ~6800 then back to ~5900 to complete.

I will be trading very carefully in and out of positions, but will keep aware that things could change suddenly over the coming days.

When I believe I've confirmed either route, I'll update with that info.


Comment: Per my previous post, I'm currently not set on Bullish/Bearish count, I would need 1-3 days to confirm. I believe we are at/near a changing point.
I haven't posted any very Bullish counts recently (still mostly all targets correct) but here is the "potential" Bullish count I see.

I see two BTC scenarios as I pointed out a week ago.
If the more bullish scenario is true (we've completed current downtrend), then we would right now be wrapping up subwave-1 of wave-3 upward.

Comment: Bitcoin should be near done completing this 5th subwave I've been mentioning.
Doesn't look very strong though, so it may not get much higher.
I did enter Long positions earlier, already well in profit, so I'm exiting and placing Short orders soon.

Comment: This subwave completed (assuming it is) right on target.
I expect BTC to retrace to 6600-6540 range.
Hopefully I'm awake by that time, then can analyze next likely path.
I've exited Long positions in nice profit. Filled Shorts.
Be cautious, as explained in my previous posts.

Comment: BTC Update - A bit more data now, but not yet enough to clarify which of my 2 scenarios plays out.
We could see a drop to 6650-6600 range, then based on how it reacts there, I'll have a better idea on which count follows through.
The Bearish/Down looks a bit more likely at the moment.

Comment: price fell to my target zone, pierced just slightly below.
I've exited Shorts near the bottom of that drop in nice profit.
Things don't look great for Bulls right now, likely BTC drops further.
Bullish path not yet invalidated, just less likely.
I'm hoping for a little pullback to fill more Shorts.

Comment: While I believe that the BTC Bearish scenario (further drop) is more likely, the Bullish possibility of another push to ~6910 is not off the table yet.

If price pulls back below today's low of 6560, this should confirm a Bearish outcome & we fall to at least the 6450-6375 range.

Comment: I hope you all stayed safe with today's BTC movements.
As I said: "If price pulls back below today's low of 6560, this should confirm a Bearish outcome" - Which never happened.
I maintained that the Bullish scenario is still possible unless that Bearish condition was met.


IF BTC manages to reach ~6850 overnight (risky to Buy/Long here, looks a bit weak, could fall before), it looks like a decent short-term Sell opportunity to me. Unlikely that it crosses 6930 overnight.

It may then pull back to ~6720, at which point I'd wait for a proper reaction (No-Trade Zone) to be able to determine its next path.

Comment: It seems a bit of a guess as to what BTC will do next. There isn't any very clear structure to analyze (not seeing proper 5th W) & its been stuck sideways between major Support/Resistance.
"More likely" it drops but I am NOT counting on this. I'm not in a trading position now.

As I mentioned in previous BTC update last night, it was looking weak & not safe to go Long hoping to reach 6850 since it might not.
(I did several quick scalps, all in profit)
I did/do have Shorts stacked at 6850 & above.
Best to wait for $BTC to make a move, then analyze further.

I'd like to see a 5th W up to 6850 & my Short orders get filled there, but this sideways movement seems very extended to be able to count on a 5th wave coming.
That's the only orders I have waiting at the moment, Shorts sitting at 6850 & above, "In case" it shoots up as a 5th W.

Comment: The longer BTC continues to move sideways, the more likely it seems it may fall.
I've updated Support & Resistance levels.

I feel it seems more likely to drop, but we haven't seen a real 5th wave, which is why I'm considering it could jump also.

I only have Shorts @ 6850+

Comment: BTC Bearish count to consider in case this breaks down.
I remind again that I'm overall "Neutral" at the moment. Too much sideways movement to accurately analyze.

Slightly leaning towards near-term breakdown (Bearish) with "maybe" a jump first to 7850-7950.

Comment: Typo: 6850-6950*
Comment: (Sorry I've been updating constantly on Twitter and not as often on here. It's difficult to manage both for every post)

I believe that Bitcoin shouldn't fall much further from it's current point before seeing a minor bounce.

BTC may bounce to ~6475 range before falling again to ~6200 range.
BTC has a small life-line here which it could hope to bounce strongly from, but that seems unlikely.

Comment: BTC is behaving very weakly. Took another small leg down and touched just below 6300.
Based on wave count and length, wasn't expecting to see it below 6300 for the next hours. Hopefully it holds.
To be fair, I said in earlier comment: "I don't see real support till around 6200"
Comment: If Bitcoin's current small bounce manages to hold as the temporary bottom for this large drop, BTC may move something like this next:
BTC to: 6440 > 6190

As I mentioned before, further dropping (in coming days) seems more likely that a strong upward move at this point.

Comment: I definitely didn't predict this much dropping..
BTC falling uncontrolably still.
Although in the back of my mind, I had a feeling it could happen, like the last day with the major continuous drops when BTC kept falling without any retracement.
Got to sleep, no targets for now.

Comment: Note: I DID expect that we would fall this low before any real uptrend (as I repeated several times and indicated in my charts).
I just did not expect Drop after Drop like a Ladder without even a slight retracement! :D
Comment: I'm still waiting for BTC to stabilize before setting targets (I just woke).

Someone asked if I went Long/Buy now, my response:

"No, I haven't gone Long for now.
The dropping overnight was very drastic & I'd like to see some stability or certainty as to what position BTC is at before re-entering trade.

Overall a bit risky to go long when general trend is Down.
More so when there was so much excess dumping hrs ago.

Also I see resistance overhead at ~6225,
I wouldn't feel safe going long unless BTC showed it could break above that."
Comment: I see some support for BTC around 5900.

As mentioned in my last post, I did not enter Long position. I'm not in any position now till BTC stabilizes or gives more clarity.

Also mentioned "no targets for now" before getting to sleep.
I wouldn't enter trade without plan/targets.

Comment: BTC - I may layer a few Longs between 5900-5800.
I don't really recommend this because of high volatility and excessive dumping.
If you attempt this, do at your own risk.
Comment: I believe that most TA (even bearish) were calling for BTC to get to 7000-7200 before falling further.

I maintained that I saw 6850 as the max high for now, and almost certainly shouldn't get past ~6920.
Said that downtrend soon to at least ~6400 is most likely.
Maintained at least 6100-5900 is next $BTC bottom.

Similarly on June 12th, I seemed to be one of the only TA calling for 6950 max top for $BTC while many called for 7.1k+
I gave the exact point it would drop.

However most of the good TAs did see this drop to sub 6k eventually coming :)
I hope most of you kept safe & not in Longs.
Comment: I gave this potential Bitcoin drop zone earlier, it hit & held perfectly so far with bounce.
I see first overhead resistance @ 6200-6250.

Still risky to attempt trades right now as recent drops have been volatile & unpredictable.
Broke through many decent supports to get this low.

Comment: I don't know if this would still be able to Bull Flag up to ~6225.
Looks weakening, and has a potential count to drop.
I'd prefer set Shorts around ~6225 in case it does make the jump, rather than try to Long up to there (exited scalp Long a little while ago).
Just my thoughts. :)

Comment: Technically, this BTC correction should be able to reach the 6200-6300 range given earlier, however, observing it's movement & micro wave count, there's possibility of 5-subwaves completed on a truncated C.
Just mentioning so you can be alert. Maybe it could still get to ~6225.

Also consider the market sentiment. I don't know if many would be eager to buy up, Bitcoin's price right now, after that rough tumble it had yesterday, and many probably expect that it could still fall further (as it likely will).

Comment: BTC hit my correction/Short target exactly after a drawn out W-C.
I see BTC likely dropping a bit further to ~5770, then could have some chance of uptrend.

Extreme CAUTION trying to catch "potential bottom", we saw what happened the other day when it kept tumbling uncontrollably.

Comment: Again, because of market sentiment and panic, there's no certainty on how extended these waves may be.
It's possible that subW-3 may not even be complete (but it seems so by my micro count).
Could well get below 5700, even to 5400, or lower...
But my analysis tells me ~5770 for now.
Comment: Assuming that Bitcoin has just completed it's subwave-4, subW5 down may begin very soon.
I believe that no analyst is trying to call the exact bottom right now, with the selling panic of the last days, price has been seen to overshoot expected TA targets.

I believe that ~5720 is a reasonable bottom target.
Next supports below, 5550 & 5450, are also labeled.
Best to observe momentum of the drop and formation of micro-fractals to approximate where it may stop.

Comment: That BTC wC was disproportionally drawn out compared to the supposed wA...
It makes me wonder if "C" was actually only wA, meaning B & C of this correction is yet to come.
What makes me think that is what I noticed while this was forming (making me originally expect some ABCDE).

I noticed that the supposed wA (on 1 min TF) seems to have 2 subwaves rather than 3 (as it should).
Potentially that wA & B could have been subW4 & 5 of the w3.

I guess we'll have to wait and see.
I filled shorts above 5900.
Could consider early exit based on how this develops.

Comment: The other possibility is that all 5 subwaves of w5 have already been completed, and a move up is already beginning (I think it's not an invalid count).
I believe this is not very likely however, as there should have been a stronger push up by now, if this was the current bottom.
Comment: Typo: "the supposed wA (on 1 min TF) seems to have 3* subwaves rather than 5* (as it should)"
Comment: Bitcoin has bounced strongly off of my main Bottom Target zone.
The strength of bounce suggests that this may be BTC's bottom for now, meaning that we uptrend from here (at least for a while).
I'm off to sleep now, will analyze next targets later.

Comment: Bitcoin doesn't yet look like a confirmed medium/long-term uptrend to me. This could be a large correction and/or short-squeeze.

Best be on your guard and not remain sitting all-in Long position just yet.
I see overhead resistance at the yellow boxes on chart, especially ~6430.

I will likely exit my Longs there (~6430, if we get there), observe & analyze.
My stop-losses are in place slightly below also, in case of sudden drop.

Comment: BTC may be trying to make a move again.
At the moment, I'm considering ~6270 as my Long position exit point.
If convincing enough volume comes in, I could aim for ~6430.

Comment: Bitcoin first target range met.
We had a very sharp Drop followed by a sharp Pump (a bit unusual - I heard news about Tether).

It looks possible for BTC to attempt one more push towards my 2nd target set since yesterday, updated now as 6350-6425 range.

I expect a drop, whether it comes before or after one final push up.


I did exit Long position at first target, 6240, moments before the drop.
Worked out well for me, as I would have been stop-lossed out had I stayed in, losing a decent bit of profit.

Also I had no analysis predicting the Dump & Pump.
Got out well in profits where I felt comfortable, & had to get to sleep.

(I updated on Twitter the moment I got out)

Comment: Bitcoin hasn't done much over the past day, mostly sideways and slowly weakening.
It appears to be nearing a narrowing point, so lets see if it can attempt a move soon.

BTC should see Resistance ~6365 if it jumps, and Support ~5990 if it drops (without too much force).

I picked up some profit with a few scalps yesterday, but still slow day.
Not in a position now, but I prefer Short @ ~3656 if it manages to jump there.
Entering Long or Short at this current point doesn't seem very safe.

Comment: lol, big typo:
"I prefer Short @ ~6365* if it manages to jump there"
Comment: Quick Note: As time has progressed, the $BTC Support region (previously ~5990) has now lowered to: ~5940
If that breaks, next support is: ~5760
(Sorry for the slower/less updates, I've been more busy recently)
Comment: $BTC upside Resistance: 6150 > 6230 > 6305
Comment: Be careful in BTC's current market. Price has been trending mostly sideways with random wild price swings (probably to wreck Shorts/Longs/Stop-losses).
I haven't taken any losses around here, nor even stopped-out, only Profits with quick scalps against expected Support & Resistance regions.

It looks like BTC could push up a bit, but not confirmable yet. Not safe to give calls with this type of movement.
Yellow Check Mark, as my Support Range held well, but although I expected the drop, wasn't sure yesterday whether or not we'd see a quick push to 6365 first or not.

Comment: BTC ~6050 may be able to support this current drop.
~5940 is next Bitcoin support.

Comment: I was preparing BTC chart now but saw price started dropping again.
I believe that 6040-6020 should hold with likely bounce.
Unlikely to get below 6000 right now in my opinion.
(My support of ~6050 last given has continued to hold price up for last 16 hrs).
Comment: UPDATE: Counting this again & observing wave formations, I'm not super confident this area holds yet.
Will update in a bit and re-analyze this.
I wouldn't go Long here just yet (I just exited Longs in some profit).
(I just woke shortly)
Comment: $BTC: 5940-5820 range seems like a Support area that can hold this drop.
I haven't had enough time to give a more precise target yet. Got to step away for a bit.
Will update as soon as I get to analyze this more.
Comment: BTC - I feel safer allowing for 1 more potential drop to ~5840 range before re-entering Longs.
(Still some possibility that current spot holds)
Next support is ~5690.
(I got a large order filled at bottom of last drop, but exited on bounce in profit)

The support zone I gave yesterday @ 6050 held well for 16hrs.
I alerted before this last heavy drop that I didn't have confidence that this area (~6030) may hold much longer.

Comment: BTC holding again exactly at my target area so far.
Got large Long orders filled right at the bottom.
I've however taken profits on the bounce.
I've got to be away from charts to catch up on some work; already made lots of gains for the day, don't want to stress the evening.

Also while price reacted at my target, I'm not 100% sure of strong upward reversal
This drop was deep & overall trend still Bearish
My exit decision shouldn't influence yours.

Just I've had all success on large orders for the past day & content waiting for more clarity to re-enter

Comment: BTC overhead resistance @: 5920 -> 5975 (current main) -> 6025
I think this move up doesn't get past 6000 before some retracement.
Comment: I took Long profits early @ the first resistance I mentioned (5920).
As the subwave-3 was a long wick I don't want to rely on it too much as a measure.
May still get to 5975 before notable retracement, but I prefer take profits & wait for next setup when I'm not very certain.
I'm off to sleep.
Comment: BTC fell overnight from my Long exit point of 5920 (which I posted), but recovering.
I think the strength of next subwave determines BTC's next path.
A Weak push to ~5945 & we likely resume dropping.
A Strong push above ~6025 & chance of uptrend to 6300+.

Comment: Yesterday I gave the two possibilities of what $BTC could do, & the condition to be met for each case.
This condition was met: "A Strong push above 6025 & chance of uptrend to 6300+"
Price pumped 6300+ as expected.

BTC is in an interesting position now, as it broke above a major trend-line that kept it in this down-trend, since early May.
Be careful of celebrating a "Bull Run" right now, as there is still a good chance of price returning to down-trend soon.

We may likely see some bounce around 6200 ~range, however price may resume down after this.
There is still some chance of uptrend being sustained, seeing as $BTC did brake its downward trend-line.
I recommend caution, not sitting heavily in either direction Long/Short (Crypto/Fiat) until price direction resolves in 1-3 days.

Sorry for the slower/less updates & responses.
Catching up on some business work.
Will still do my best to post daily, but please note that I won't be online all day & may delay to respond or update with charts at such times.

Comment: I was in the middle of preparing a $BTC update right now; I see that price started dropping.
Key point is that $BTC needs to get over ~6900 soon (before falling out of rising wedge) to retain bullish momentum for another week.
This (Bullish/Uptrend) seems less likely to happen.

More time is needed still to confirm next path, as the current count from 5750 bottom is very tricky and can be interpreted both Bullishly & Bearishly.
I'll try to post my chart and proper update in a bit.
Comment: BTC appears to be in a rising wedge type of structure.
A break @ Top can carry price further up, however I see heavy resistance ~7075 which can send price back down.
There is a good chance that BTC price breaks to down-side of wedge, which can trigger further drops downward.

We still have to do some waiting to get a clearer count on #Bitcoin.
The structure at the bottom ~5750 makes interpretation difficult, & can be seen as both Bullish (AB then start of several impulses up) & Bearish (some portion of a large ABC correction).

Comment: Thoughts on BTC still the same.
Short-term appears more Bearish with incoming drop, as price appears being pushed out downside of Falling Wedge.
The Bullish chance is that current sub-structure resembles a Symm Triangle, which has a tendency to break out in current direction (Up).

Even if the potential Symmetrical Triangle does break upward, it seems more likely to hit the top of the larger Falling Wedge then make a drop below (rather than get over 6900).

Comment: BTC has again been moving sideways extensively, making analysis difficult, but I'll still share my thoughts.

The most reasonable count I see right now is that BTC is about to end an Expanded Flat Correction (3-3-5), which could get to ~6350 if it does.
Otherwise, another move up faces heavy resistance ~6940.

Comment: BTC dropped exactly to my ~6350 Target, and right on Time.
It looks like we should have one more move down to ~6190 before any significant pull-back.
(As Bitcoin is moving sideways/slowly so often recently, on some days there is nothing new to add/update.)

Comment: $BTC is currently at the drop target I gave over a day ago: ~6190.
I expect the short-term bottom to be somewhere between here and ~6080.
(#Bitcoin's support level lowered slightly as time progressed.)
Comment: BTC - I'm looking for this drop to stop ~6180-6120 range, then another move up.
(Will post chart as soon as I get the chance - Posted this quickly as I see price is dropping now.)
I filled longs over a day ago @ average price 6090, based on my previous post, exited before this drop.
Comment: My next target for Bitcoin is 6330-6400 range.
Possible to overshoot this target, but I'll aim here for now & re-analyse if/when we get there.

I filled Longs earlier @ ~6130 & scalp exited near top of last jump.
Longs re-filled at bottom of this 2nd drop.
I'm off to sleep soon.


BTC - Price needs to break and hold above ~6260 in order to shoot for ~6360.

There's some risk of BTC price briefly hitting then falling from ~6250, however, an uptrend for the next few hours seems more likely to me.

Comment: Quick BTC Update: Bitcoin spiked very near (6320) to my target range (6330-6400), but showing signs of weakness.
Not certain to reach exact target (chances decreasing).

Still very good call so far to exit in profit even right now if anyone wishes to (if they followed my entry).

This doesn't confirm end of current uptrend, but just makes the current situation more uncertain.

On a larger time-frame, #BTC looks like there is room to push further up.
But on smaller time-frame count, there's potentially 5 sub-waves completed.
Comment: BTC - I'm anticipating some reaction soon as price approaches the 6300 mark.
Triangles like this can break out in either direction (so plan for break to either side), but downward does seems more likely at this time.

Comment: BTC price did react upon reaching my 6300 range, as anticipated, but spiked up sharply.
It could well be a fake-out, we'll have to wait a bit for clarity.

The spike ran into my Short orders & I took quick profits on the drop (missed filling my last short by $1). :(

I stacked my Short orders high, anticipating that such a spike could happen.
Now I can wait for things to settle before re-entry.
It's not wise to guess and FOMO into trades during such volatility.

Comment: How did I take that BTC trade in profit?
Remember I said in to "plan for break to either side", as this is a Triangle which could break either way.
Notice that I kept the resistance level ~6360 in the chart? It was the resistance area that could push back down a potential spike.

Quote: "Triangles like this can break out in either direction (so plan for break to either side)"
Comment: Bitcoin has managed to push into my main target (given over a day ago) & spent the day within that range (6330-6400).

I've just Shorted for today (x10 Leverage) a couple of times the touches to ~6380 for nice scalp profits (took profits near bottom of each drop).

I've removed sitting orders for now till BTC makes a decision.

Comment: Since Bitcoin's next move still isn't completely clear, we can only plan based on the next likely areas of Support & Resistance (as outlined by my chart).
Still, it isn't very safe to trade when next path is uncertain, in case of swift moves (or over-throw) in either direction.

In case a Bull Flag is forming on BTC, the possible upper target is a bit broad. Tricky to narrow down right now, and I prefer not to give a narrow range in case of a spike (like a Short squeeze).
When the structure and wave count is more clear, targets can be narrowed down.

Comment: Very strong showing by BTC over the past 2 days.
This price range was expected once we broke past 6500, however I didn't expect the run to happen this quickly without any retracement.

BTC will likely have a tough time getting past 7560-7800 immediately, so I expect some retracement soon.

(Been very busy this week and a mostly away from charts - I'll try to resume analysis in a day or two, and post updates)
Comment: Seems likely that BTC could start dropping a bit, soon (currently @ 7470).
I'll try to update hopefully soon, a drop target, once I get the chance to analyze.
Shouldn't be a super heavy drop; we may still have some upside movement in the coming day(s).
Comment: Posted this quick note some hours ago on Twitter:

"There was a swift $100 Pump & Dump on $BTC a little while ago (could be stop-hunting).
It complexes the count around this upper area a bit more for me, so I advise Caution.
I'm away from chart for a bit, but will check back soon and hopefully wave count is clearer then."


New Update:

I've now had a better look at BTC. Here''s what I currently see:

If price continues to crawl sideway-upward within this channel (blue lines), it may then break out upward to ~7800.
Otherwise if #BTC breaks down below this channel without too much more sideways, price should hit one of below ranges.


Per TA, reasonably, BTC should retrace a bit by now. It doesn't need to fall heavily, we may still have more upward action to come.
These recent moves have been very forced/manipulated.
I'm happy to see this Bullishness, however, this type of movement (hitting RSI 90 and still not retracing much) isn't ideal for the market.

Comment: Quick visual of the channels #Bitcoin price is currently moving within.
It's possible that price doesn't fall below the lower Blue channel, if $BTC has already started it's 5th wave up.
Falling below, the support boxes I labeled days ago are still valid.

Comment: I've moved my updates to a new post (linked below).

Bitcoin is still moving within the channel I outlined in my last post.

Mentioned BTC may already be on "5th wave up"; we seem to have more confirmation of that.

Longs/Buys laddered between 7650 to 7500 for any sharp drops seem like a decent Risk/Reward.

Stay cautious, lots of Traps and Stop-Hunting.

Follow me on Twitter:
stophunting ... thats a nice term i never heard befor i guess i was beeing hunted :)
looks like those " (6330-6400)" you came up with did match after all hehe im out for the moment but have to admit i dont "feel" good about it its like you said fomoing around thats something i have to learn to restrain myself and be ok with not beeing in the market at all. we all hate missing opotunities especialy if we saw them coming but in the end if we did our homework properly there shouldnt be anything left that we didnt see as a possibilityso basicly everything that happens starts to feel like .. oh i knew it ! as for the move from like 6240 to 6380 im kinda impressed for a weekend
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i think its weekend after all and 25-26 something hourse ago it already spiked up to 6339,9 on bitfinex that cleared out some of the shorts
this is what i did .. i didnt try a elliot count tho since you mentioned the 5 sub waves now im thinking :)
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@Dayta, keep up the awesome work! :)
Nice trades.
You rock!! Brilliant as always, thank you
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@Jules1, You're welcome, and thanks for the kind words!
me personaly im missing some retests of previous resistance lines id like to see some of them retested for a further move of course it might just move on up i got a target around 6950-7150 around that area as well but im lokking closly and a drop befor we move further up wouldnt suprise me 6500 was retested kind of 6300 was not since the break out and after that the decending wedge from the past months also wasnt retested after breakthrough at 30th june (wich co insides with breaking the line at 6300 wish was a big support around 14-18 juzne and resistance around 23-28 june (on the daily) i think that this support was holding and prevent a new retest for that moment but we are losing steam give sellers and buyers some breathing room and move up harder thats what would fit my expectation. might be wrong tho wouldnt be wrong so thoe are just my thoughts for the moment.. one thing is sure ... tomorrow is another day :)
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Dayta Dayta
@Dayta, oh and one more come to think of it since usa is big on crypto and they had their holdiday thingy going on some propably turn the rest of the week into vacation to join that holiday thingy with weekend that might have an effect too on the marked so a drop until like sunday and then moving up again would fit my expectation on the other hand with the low volume around it doesnt require much for a nudg in the other direction sp keep your eyes open
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Thanks for the update, always actively following :)
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ive had one elliot wave count more or less acidently lined up around 5825 (even the timing was just 2 minutes candles off that clearly was luck on my part there) may i ask for a hint how you arrived at the 5840 conclusion ?
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