If you've followed me for a while, you may have noticed that my calls/analysis have mostly been very accurate with consistency.
I usually focus on intra-day targets rather than long-term view.
Since I've recently been asked a lot "What do I think is Bitcoin's bottom", I've decided to have a look into this.
At the moment, I believe that Bitcoin's "next" bottom should be between the 6100-5900 $USD price ranges.
I can't say if this will be the lowest point we will see Bitcoin at for the rest of the year. I haven't attempted to analyze that far ahead.
My guess on Bitcoin's next moves:
As mentioned in my last post, I was looking out for a "small correction" on BTC . So far, that appears to be shaping up.
I'm looking for a C-wave up to ~6605, & will short to 6400-6300, if things are looking ok.
Note that it is risky to enter Long to attempt riding C-wave up, in the case that this correction already completed, and we are on the next wave down.
Use stop-losses if attempting this.
It's safer to short the top @ ~6605.
Safest to look for price dropping before shorting.
Follow me on Twitter for more timely and consistent updates: @AndrewEDavis
FAILED however to sustain bounce after drop target.
BTC Flash Crashed and Pumped 300 points 6400 to 6100 & back.
This could be good news for us however, as it may accelerate the completion of this down-trend.
Prices fell into my Altcoin Long orders & I sold bounce at nice profits.
Rode waves to 6605 & shorted there to drop zone.
Didn't play out 100% as expected with the flash Dump/Pump, but, 100% of trades were very profitable. :)
I hope some of you took nice profits on these calls.
I've had 6100 as a major support & 6350 drop zone target since days ago, have a look:
I didn't expect the flash Dump/Pump, so I didn't zoom out to show 6100.
I'll wait for things to settle a bit before analyzing next targets. Not safest to trade right now.
(Not the best time to predict after that 300 point Flash Dump/Pump, I'll still share some thoughts).
BTC either drops here or pushes a little more to ~6405 first.
Then likely down to ~6000 or double-bottom ~6100.
I think it doesn't get below 5875 for now.
I'll be going Long on orders after this current drop I'm expecting.
It's current movement is uncertain; it's best to wait for a decisive move before entering trades.
Once I get more clarity I'll try to update with a count and/or targets.
However, the case for the bearish scenario (breaking downward) is that Altcoins had a decent little run up today, and look like they need to retrace a bit with $BTC for another push up tomorrow.
Moments after I said this, Altcoins started Dumping. :D
EOS for example.
Maybe they are hurrying now to get prepared for another move up. :)
First I said: "Altcoins had a decent little run up today, and look like they need to retrace a bit with BTC for another push up"
Altcoins shortly after start Dumping.
Then I said: "Maybe they are hurrying now to get prepared for another move up. :)"
Bitcoin starts Pumping.
BTC may be able to get to 6490-6570 with this current pump. The higher target you aim for (either exit Long or enter Short), increases chances not reaching target.
I'm definitely not certain of this yet, nor is this necessarily my main count. I just wanted to point something out.
There is a chance that Bitcoin's entire move today was a large wave-4 ABC correction of 5 waves down.
It's too early to be able to verify this, but I wanted to mention so you can look out for any signs of this happening and react in time.
Price may pull back to ~6360 before attempting to move up again.
This may be good news for Bulls as it makes the scenario I pointed out of an immediate wave-5 drop less likely, as wave-4 would now retrace too heavily.
Possibility to fall a bit sharply to ~6290 also.
I'll just label these drop areas of interest, and one can observe the velocity of drop to approximate target.
I've exited Short positions there in nice profit. Also rode the wave up in Long with good profits.
Looks like it could drop lower still, but I prefer to secure my profits and look for good re-entry once this settles a bit.
BTC could attempt another wave up today & may get to the yellow box range.
Do remember that I posted an Caution alternative scenario to keep in mind (image 2, but seeming less likely now).
Need to sleep, will analyze better when I wake.
They got filled at bottom of this drop, but I've just exited all orders in profit.
BTC may head for another subwave down; if it does, 7300 support may hold
I don't feel 100% with count; I'll play it safe & not have any open orders while I sleep.
It's just better risk and money management to not over-trade, and not take trades when you feel some uncertainty.
There's always many other days/times for next trades.
I hope some of you were able to take profits from this call.
I missed this ride up as I had to sleep & didn't want to leave positions open, for safety.
Now I will look for signs of this breaking down and not having another wave up before opening Shorts.
I also want to analyze this structure more.
It's possible that the correction/short uptrend is not complete, if this is only subwave-A of wave-B in a large ABC.
As we had 1 more small leg down below 6360, this may change count.
Will try to update in a bit.
I'm not 100% certain on the current count (if the correction is fully complete).
I've outlined significant support areas, where price could drop to/hold/bounce.
It's possible we get 5 waves down to ~6000.
If trading, best observe & react accordingly.
This however is not my main count, but always be prepared in case count may be wrong.
I will be exiting Shorts on profit & re-entering more Shorts if this plays out as 5 waves down.
$BTC nearly mini-pumped into my Short; I do tend to place them safely away in case of unexpected movements.
Possibility that #BTC could try to force 1 more wave up from here, but it could also fall soon. Waiting for clarity before entry
I won't be entering Long here. Not a wise/safe idea to attempt to ride a 5th subwave up in a larger down-trend.
I'll wait for more confirmation to enter Short whether at current area or ~6800.
I'm updating chart with support regions.
This trajectory is my guess for the moment, there is limited data & I'm not 100% sure that the correction is complete.
Hopefully we uptrend after.
The yellow box (6440-6340) is a decent support area. It's also possible that BTC drops there and moves up further, if we are currently on wave-3 of 5 upward.
If price breaks through the yellow box, we likely downtrend as 5 waves.
The wave formations & proportions are a bit odd, so again I'm not 100% on this.
Keep an eye out for it maybe doing something like this (solid arrows).
Still a chance of it pushing higher, but seems less likely.
Y - Dropped to 6440
o - Fakeout Pump/Bull Trap
Y - Dropped to 6340
Y - Bounced to 6440
(Sorry for slower updates and delayed replies - I've been pretty busy. I'll analyze BTC further when I have some time.)
BTC to: 6600 > 6400
It seems a bit weak bullishly at the moment, and we've seen a lot of failed/truncated Bull Flags recently.
Once I saw BTC price stalling to get further I exited at the top of this current subwave.
Maybe it could still push higher, maybe the Bull Flag isn't complete,
but it seems safer to me to take my profit now than guess
If BTC continues dropping as I'm expecting, maybe a slight bounce around 6440 before dropping a bit more.
Y - Dropped to 6440
Y - Bounced
Now I look for another drop to ~6395.
BTC may uptrend a bit after.
I woke in time earlier to exit Short orders successfully @ drop to 6440 (were entered ~6550).
Woke again a little while ago and entered more Short positions.
All recent trades have been successful and quite profitable.
Average Target: ~6400
Target Range: 6420-6380
Lower support (in case of heavy dump): ~6290
Therese a decent chance of short-term uptrend for the coming hours/day.
Waiting for a bit of stability then may enter Long (not in any position right now).
Bears seem to be pushing/dumping a bit heavily, could get lower.
Sorry also for any missed replies (more so on Twitter), I've been busier than usual lately.
Brb in a bit.
I won't be surprised if it could happen soon.
Upside target in the case it does take this direction is ~6615 range.
Note the upper and Lower Support/Resistance labelled in my chart.
Current pump may be sustained, however I'm not 100% confident on Bullishness to ~6600 right now.
Getting there isn't yet invalid, but recent movements were weak & fractals poorly formed for interpretation.
Also I need to sleep.
Right now it's hovering around the ~6725 upper resistance I had labeled in case it over-shot.
I hope some of you made nice profit on this call. :)
I did exit Longs early (in good profit) as I needed to sleep & didn't see clear Bullish signs in the previous hours.
I don't regret the decision. Regretting can dull your future decisions.
A rule of mine is:
If less certain about target
Already in good profits
= Take Profits
With that strategy, I rarely take losses. Haven't taken a loss in a while.
I prefer gradual good/great daily profits with barely any losses, than hoping/waiting for Home-run trades.
I did call for a Pump though. It delayed a lot... but eventually came. :)
I'll analyze $BTC further once I get a chance.
Looks possible for #BTC to have a 5th subwave up, but I see heavy upside resistance around 7800 area.
I'm not in a position right now.
I think that right now isn't the safest trading area, as things can turn quickly.
I see possibility of BTC managing a push to ~6870.
I may attempt a small Long scalp, but prefer to Short when Top is found.
See my post from a week ago, where I mentioned there is some possibility that we may have already completed the current downtrend, or could bounce to ~6800 then back to ~5900 to complete.
I will be trading very carefully in and out of positions, but will keep aware that things could change suddenly over the coming days.
When I believe I've confirmed either route, I'll update with that info.
I haven't posted any very Bullish counts recently (still mostly all targets correct) but here is the "potential" Bullish count I see.
I see two BTC scenarios as I pointed out a week ago.
If the more bullish scenario is true (we've completed current downtrend), then we would right now be wrapping up subwave-1 of wave-3 upward.
Doesn't look very strong though, so it may not get much higher.
I did enter Long positions earlier, already well in profit, so I'm exiting and placing Short orders soon.
I expect BTC to retrace to 6600-6540 range.
Hopefully I'm awake by that time, then can analyze next likely path.
I've exited Long positions in nice profit. Filled Shorts.
Be cautious, as explained in my previous posts.
We could see a drop to 6650-6600 range, then based on how it reacts there, I'll have a better idea on which count follows through.
The Bearish/Down looks a bit more likely at the moment.
I've exited Shorts near the bottom of that drop in nice profit.
Things don't look great for Bulls right now, likely BTC drops further.
Bullish path not yet invalidated, just less likely.
I'm hoping for a little pullback to fill more Shorts.
If price pulls back below today's low of 6560, this should confirm a Bearish outcome & we fall to at least the 6450-6375 range.
As I said: "If price pulls back below today's low of 6560, this should confirm a Bearish outcome" - Which never happened.
I maintained that the Bullish scenario is still possible unless that Bearish condition was met.
IF BTC manages to reach ~6850 overnight (risky to Buy/Long here, looks a bit weak, could fall before), it looks like a decent short-term Sell opportunity to me. Unlikely that it crosses 6930 overnight.
It may then pull back to ~6720, at which point I'd wait for a proper reaction (No-Trade Zone) to be able to determine its next path.
"More likely" it drops but I am NOT counting on this. I'm not in a trading position now.
As I mentioned in previous BTC update last night, it was looking weak & not safe to go Long hoping to reach 6850 since it might not.
(I did several quick scalps, all in profit)
I did/do have Shorts stacked at 6850 & above.
Best to wait for $BTC to make a move, then analyze further.
I'd like to see a 5th W up to 6850 & my Short orders get filled there, but this sideways movement seems very extended to be able to count on a 5th wave coming.
That's the only orders I have waiting at the moment, Shorts sitting at 6850 & above, "In case" it shoots up as a 5th W.
I've updated Support & Resistance levels.
I feel it seems more likely to drop, but we haven't seen a real 5th wave, which is why I'm considering it could jump also.
I only have Shorts @ 6850+
I remind again that I'm overall "Neutral" at the moment. Too much sideways movement to accurately analyze.
Slightly leaning towards near-term breakdown (Bearish) with "maybe" a jump first to 7850-7950.
I believe that Bitcoin shouldn't fall much further from it's current point before seeing a minor bounce.
BTC may bounce to ~6475 range before falling again to ~6200 range.
BTC has a small life-line here which it could hope to bounce strongly from, but that seems unlikely.
Based on wave count and length, wasn't expecting to see it below 6300 for the next hours. Hopefully it holds.
To be fair, I said in earlier comment: "I don't see real support till around 6200"
BTC to: 6440 > 6190
As I mentioned before, further dropping (in coming days) seems more likely that a strong upward move at this point.
BTC falling uncontrolably still.
Although in the back of my mind, I had a feeling it could happen, like the last day with the major continuous drops when BTC kept falling without any retracement.
Got to sleep, no targets for now.
I just did not expect Drop after Drop like a Ladder without even a slight retracement! :D
Someone asked if I went Long/Buy now, my response:
"No, I haven't gone Long for now.
The dropping overnight was very drastic & I'd like to see some stability or certainty as to what position BTC is at before re-entering trade.
Overall a bit risky to go long when general trend is Down.
More so when there was so much excess dumping hrs ago.
Also I see resistance overhead at ~6225,
I wouldn't feel safe going long unless BTC showed it could break above that."
As mentioned in my last post, I did not enter Long position. I'm not in any position now till BTC stabilizes or gives more clarity.
Also mentioned "no targets for now" before getting to sleep.
I wouldn't enter trade without plan/targets.
I don't really recommend this because of high volatility and excessive dumping.
If you attempt this, do at your own risk.
I maintained that I saw 6850 as the max high for now, and almost certainly shouldn't get past ~6920.
Said that downtrend soon to at least ~6400 is most likely.
Maintained at least 6100-5900 is next $BTC bottom.
Similarly on June 12th, I seemed to be one of the only TA calling for 6950 max top for $BTC while many called for 7.1k+
I gave the exact point it would drop.
However most of the good TAs did see this drop to sub 6k eventually coming :)
I hope most of you kept safe & not in Longs.
I see first overhead resistance @ 6200-6250.
Still risky to attempt trades right now as recent drops have been volatile & unpredictable.
Broke through many decent supports to get this low.
Looks weakening, and has a potential count to drop.
I'd prefer set Shorts around ~6225 in case it does make the jump, rather than try to Long up to there (exited scalp Long a little while ago).
Just my thoughts. :)
Just mentioning so you can be alert. Maybe it could still get to ~6225.
Also consider the market sentiment. I don't know if many would be eager to buy up, Bitcoin's price right now, after that rough tumble it had yesterday, and many probably expect that it could still fall further (as it likely will).
I see BTC likely dropping a bit further to ~5770, then could have some chance of uptrend.
Extreme CAUTION trying to catch "potential bottom", we saw what happened the other day when it kept tumbling uncontrollably.
It's possible that subW-3 may not even be complete (but it seems so by my micro count).
Could well get below 5700, even to 5400, or lower...
But my analysis tells me ~5770 for now.
I believe that no analyst is trying to call the exact bottom right now, with the selling panic of the last days, price has been seen to overshoot expected TA targets.
I believe that ~5720 is a reasonable bottom target.
Next supports below, 5550 & 5450, are also labeled.
Best to observe momentum of the drop and formation of micro-fractals to approximate where it may stop.
It makes me wonder if "C" was actually only wA, meaning B & C of this correction is yet to come.
What makes me think that is what I noticed while this was forming (making me originally expect some ABCDE).
I noticed that the supposed wA (on 1 min TF) seems to have 2 subwaves rather than 3 (as it should).
Potentially that wA & B could have been subW4 & 5 of the w3.
I guess we'll have to wait and see.
I filled shorts above 5900.
Could consider early exit based on how this develops.
I believe this is not very likely however, as there should have been a stronger push up by now, if this was the current bottom.
The strength of bounce suggests that this may be BTC's bottom for now, meaning that we uptrend from here (at least for a while).
I'm off to sleep now, will analyze next targets later.
Best be on your guard and not remain sitting all-in Long position just yet.
I see overhead resistance at the yellow boxes on chart, especially ~6430.
I will likely exit my Longs there (~6430, if we get there), observe & analyze.
My stop-losses are in place slightly below also, in case of sudden drop.
At the moment, I'm considering ~6270 as my Long position exit point.
If convincing enough volume comes in, I could aim for ~6430.
We had a very sharp Drop followed by a sharp Pump (a bit unusual - I heard news about Tether).
It looks possible for BTC to attempt one more push towards my 2nd target set since yesterday, updated now as 6350-6425 range.
I expect a drop, whether it comes before or after one final push up.
I did exit Long position at first target, 6240, moments before the drop.
Worked out well for me, as I would have been stop-lossed out had I stayed in, losing a decent bit of profit.
Also I had no analysis predicting the Dump & Pump.
Got out well in profits where I felt comfortable, & had to get to sleep.
(I updated on Twitter the moment I got out)
It appears to be nearing a narrowing point, so lets see if it can attempt a move soon.
BTC should see Resistance ~6365 if it jumps, and Support ~5990 if it drops (without too much force).
I picked up some profit with a few scalps yesterday, but still slow day.
Not in a position now, but I prefer Short @ ~3656 if it manages to jump there.
Entering Long or Short at this current point doesn't seem very safe.
"I prefer Short @ ~6365* if it manages to jump there"
If that breaks, next support is: ~5760
(Sorry for the slower/less updates, I've been more busy recently)
I haven't taken any losses around here, nor even stopped-out, only Profits with quick scalps against expected Support & Resistance regions.
It looks like BTC could push up a bit, but not confirmable yet. Not safe to give calls with this type of movement.
Yellow Check Mark, as my Support Range held well, but although I expected the drop, wasn't sure yesterday whether or not we'd see a quick push to 6365 first or not.
~5940 is next Bitcoin support.
I believe that 6040-6020 should hold with likely bounce.
Unlikely to get below 6000 right now in my opinion.
(My support of ~6050 last given has continued to hold price up for last 16 hrs).
Will update in a bit and re-analyze this.
I wouldn't go Long here just yet (I just exited Longs in some profit).
(I just woke shortly)
I haven't had enough time to give a more precise target yet. Got to step away for a bit.
Will update as soon as I get to analyze this more.
(Still some possibility that current spot holds)
Next support is ~5690.
(I got a large order filled at bottom of last drop, but exited on bounce in profit)
The support zone I gave yesterday @ 6050 held well for 16hrs.
I alerted before this last heavy drop that I didn't have confidence that this area (~6030) may hold much longer.
Got large Long orders filled right at the bottom.
I've however taken profits on the bounce.
I've got to be away from charts to catch up on some work; already made lots of gains for the day, don't want to stress the evening.
Also while price reacted at my target, I'm not 100% sure of strong upward reversal
This drop was deep & overall trend still Bearish
My exit decision shouldn't influence yours.
Just I've had all success on large orders for the past day & content waiting for more clarity to re-enter
I think this move up doesn't get past 6000 before some retracement.
As the subwave-3 was a long wick I don't want to rely on it too much as a measure.
May still get to 5975 before notable retracement, but I prefer take profits & wait for next setup when I'm not very certain.
I'm off to sleep.
I think the strength of next subwave determines BTC's next path.
A Weak push to ~5945 & we likely resume dropping.
A Strong push above ~6025 & chance of uptrend to 6300+.
This condition was met: "A Strong push above 6025 & chance of uptrend to 6300+"
Price pumped 6300+ as expected.
BTC is in an interesting position now, as it broke above a major trend-line that kept it in this down-trend, since early May.
Be careful of celebrating a "Bull Run" right now, as there is still a good chance of price returning to down-trend soon.
We may likely see some bounce around 6200 ~range, however price may resume down after this.
There is still some chance of uptrend being sustained, seeing as $BTC did brake its downward trend-line.
I recommend caution, not sitting heavily in either direction Long/Short (Crypto/Fiat) until price direction resolves in 1-3 days.
Sorry for the slower/less updates & responses.
Catching up on some business work.
Will still do my best to post daily, but please note that I won't be online all day & may delay to respond or update with charts at such times.
Key point is that $BTC needs to get over ~6900 soon (before falling out of rising wedge) to retain bullish momentum for another week.
This (Bullish/Uptrend) seems less likely to happen.
More time is needed still to confirm next path, as the current count from 5750 bottom is very tricky and can be interpreted both Bullishly & Bearishly.
I'll try to post my chart and proper update in a bit.
A break @ Top can carry price further up, however I see heavy resistance ~7075 which can send price back down.
There is a good chance that BTC price breaks to down-side of wedge, which can trigger further drops downward.
We still have to do some waiting to get a clearer count on #Bitcoin.
The structure at the bottom ~5750 makes interpretation difficult, & can be seen as both Bullish (AB then start of several impulses up) & Bearish (some portion of a large ABC correction).
Short-term appears more Bearish with incoming drop, as price appears being pushed out downside of Falling Wedge.
The Bullish chance is that current sub-structure resembles a Symm Triangle, which has a tendency to break out in current direction (Up).
Even if the potential Symmetrical Triangle does break upward, it seems more likely to hit the top of the larger Falling Wedge then make a drop below (rather than get over 6900).
The most reasonable count I see right now is that BTC is about to end an Expanded Flat Correction (3-3-5), which could get to ~6350 if it does.
Otherwise, another move up faces heavy resistance ~6940.
It looks like we should have one more move down to ~6190 before any significant pull-back.
(As Bitcoin is moving sideways/slowly so often recently, on some days there is nothing new to add/update.)
I expect the short-term bottom to be somewhere between here and ~6080.
(#Bitcoin's support level lowered slightly as time progressed.)
(Will post chart as soon as I get the chance - Posted this quickly as I see price is dropping now.)
I filled longs over a day ago @ average price 6090, based on my previous post, exited before this drop.
Possible to overshoot this target, but I'll aim here for now & re-analyse if/when we get there.
I filled Longs earlier @ ~6130 & scalp exited near top of last jump.
Longs re-filled at bottom of this 2nd drop.
I'm off to sleep soon.
BTC - Price needs to break and hold above ~6260 in order to shoot for ~6360.
There's some risk of BTC price briefly hitting then falling from ~6250, however, an uptrend for the next few hours seems more likely to me.
Not certain to reach exact target (chances decreasing).
Still very good call so far to exit in profit even right now if anyone wishes to (if they followed my entry).
This doesn't confirm end of current uptrend, but just makes the current situation more uncertain.
On a larger time-frame, #BTC looks like there is room to push further up.
But on smaller time-frame count, there's potentially 5 sub-waves completed.
Triangles like this can break out in either direction (so plan for break to either side), but downward does seems more likely at this time.
It could well be a fake-out, we'll have to wait a bit for clarity.
The spike ran into my Short orders & I took quick profits on the drop (missed filling my last short by $1). :(
I stacked my Short orders high, anticipating that such a spike could happen.
Now I can wait for things to settle before re-entry.
It's not wise to guess and FOMO into trades during such volatility.
Remember I said in to "plan for break to either side", as this is a Triangle which could break either way.
Notice that I kept the resistance level ~6360 in the chart? It was the resistance area that could push back down a potential spike.
Quote: "Triangles like this can break out in either direction (so plan for break to either side)"
I've just Shorted for today (x10 Leverage) a couple of times the touches to ~6380 for nice scalp profits (took profits near bottom of each drop).
I've removed sitting orders for now till BTC makes a decision.
Still, it isn't very safe to trade when next path is uncertain, in case of swift moves (or over-throw) in either direction.
In case a Bull Flag is forming on BTC, the possible upper target is a bit broad. Tricky to narrow down right now, and I prefer not to give a narrow range in case of a spike (like a Short squeeze).
When the structure and wave count is more clear, targets can be narrowed down.
This price range was expected once we broke past 6500, however I didn't expect the run to happen this quickly without any retracement.
BTC will likely have a tough time getting past 7560-7800 immediately, so I expect some retracement soon.
(Been very busy this week and a mostly away from charts - I'll try to resume analysis in a day or two, and post updates)
I'll try to update hopefully soon, a drop target, once I get the chance to analyze.
Shouldn't be a super heavy drop; we may still have some upside movement in the coming day(s).
"There was a swift $100 Pump & Dump on $BTC a little while ago (could be stop-hunting).
It complexes the count around this upper area a bit more for me, so I advise Caution.
I'm away from chart for a bit, but will check back soon and hopefully wave count is clearer then."
I've now had a better look at BTC. Here''s what I currently see:
If price continues to crawl sideway-upward within this channel (blue lines), it may then break out upward to ~7800.
Otherwise if #BTC breaks down below this channel without too much more sideways, price should hit one of below ranges.
Per TA, reasonably, BTC should retrace a bit by now. It doesn't need to fall heavily, we may still have more upward action to come.
These recent moves have been very forced/manipulated.
I'm happy to see this Bullishness, however, this type of movement (hitting RSI 90 and still not retracing much) isn't ideal for the market.
It's possible that price doesn't fall below the lower Blue channel, if $BTC has already started it's 5th wave up.
Falling below, the support boxes I labeled days ago are still valid.
Bitcoin is still moving within the channel I outlined in my last post.
Mentioned BTC may already be on "5th wave up"; we seem to have more confirmation of that.
Longs/Buys laddered between 7650 to 7500 for any sharp drops seem like a decent Risk/Reward.
Stay cautious, lots of Traps and Stop-Hunting.
Follow me on Twitter: https://twitter.com/AndrewEDavis