So point "A" starts us off. A Bullish week, haven't had a clear break in MS. We close the following week under the 33% level, and SLAM...
Down to "B". 20ma lost. 100ma holding as support. 3 week of consolidation between the 100ma, and the 50% level of 3.1k - 13.8k Leg up. Momentum builds, BTC Sweeps the stops of all early long'rs with that Monster Wick! Zoom....
Up to "C". The 20ma and 33% level get wick'd, but ultimately hold as resistance. Grinding down lower and lower for 3 weeks, until the 50% level gives way, and SLAM.....
Down to "D". The 100ma gives way this time, but the 66% level holds strong . 7 week, 4 direct attempts, "D" holds. We get 2 thrust candles out of the level, Bulls regaining the 20ma and 50% level (Blue Circle). Two more thrust candles after that brief (bearish candle) consolidation, testing the 20ma/50%level as support....
Smack into "E". The 33% level once again holds as resistance. 3 weeks are spent consolidating at this level.
We elevator down to "F". the 20ma/50% level provide a brief dead-cat-bounce, before losing the level, testing the 20ma one last time, and then demon dropping ...
Right THROUGH "G", the 100ma. Through the 66% level.
Into "H". This volatile consolidation. Up to the 66% level resistance, down to 200ma support, for 3 almost 4 weeks, until we get a nice Bullish thrust
Into "I". For the first time in a month, we'd finally gotten a Bullish sign...Grinding higher, through the 100ma....up to the Green 20ma, rejected first week, now BAM...Here we are....
Currently above the Monthly Open. Comfortably above last month's Open.
If Bulls can hold this 8.5k 50% level, there's a good chance the 33% level gets tested a 3rd time. You know what they say about multiple tests to a level. On the flipside....Should Bears regain control of 8.5k, and hold it, that 20ma around 7.8k or so becomes the immediate target. If Bears regain the 20ma, the 100ma/66% level becomes the next likely showdown level, around that 6.7-7k area.
Personally, I would like to see the latter occur. I think it'd be healthier in the long-term Bullish narrative. So long as Bulls manage to hold the 200ma/75% level, long term Bullish outlooks have merit. We'd be printing a HL
I know everyone is super Bullish, and I'll get attacked for this, but don't forget that drop from "E" to "H"....it was absolutely SAVAGE. Yes, we've had a great run up from 3.8k, absolutely 100% Literally, plus some. But slice it any way you like, they took $6700 from you, and gave you back $5k so far.....I'm glad (long term spot Bull in me) to have the 5k back as well, believe me...but we're not out of the woods yet.
I'm torn....I won't lie. I want this to regain 10.5k. I want this to be the next 2017 Run up. Bring on Alt season etc etc etc. If it is, BTC will prove it. We'll begin seeing HH and HL. Until then I see a Broadening Wedge style formation to the downside. Hold 8.5k/20ma for a bit, and we can talk.
As always, practice solid risk management, good luck, and have fun!
Down to "B". 20ma lost. 100ma holding as support. 3 week of consolidation between the 100ma, and the 50% level of 3.1k - 13.8k Leg up. Momentum builds, BTC Sweeps the stops of all early long'rs with that Monster Wick! Zoom....
Up to "C". The 20ma and 33% level get wick'd, but ultimately hold as resistance. Grinding down lower and lower for 3 weeks, until the 50% level gives way, and SLAM.....
Down to "D". The 100ma gives way this time, but the 66% level holds strong . 7 week, 4 direct attempts, "D" holds. We get 2 thrust candles out of the level, Bulls regaining the 20ma and 50% level (Blue Circle). Two more thrust candles after that brief (bearish candle) consolidation, testing the 20ma/50%level as support....
Smack into "E". The 33% level once again holds as resistance. 3 weeks are spent consolidating at this level.
We elevator down to "F". the 20ma/50% level provide a brief dead-cat-bounce, before losing the level, testing the 20ma one last time, and then demon dropping ...
Right THROUGH "G", the 100ma. Through the 66% level.
Into "H". This volatile consolidation. Up to the 66% level resistance, down to 200ma support, for 3 almost 4 weeks, until we get a nice Bullish thrust
Into "I". For the first time in a month, we'd finally gotten a Bullish sign...Grinding higher, through the 100ma....up to the Green 20ma, rejected first week, now BAM...Here we are....
Currently above the Monthly Open. Comfortably above last month's Open.
If Bulls can hold this 8.5k 50% level, there's a good chance the 33% level gets tested a 3rd time. You know what they say about multiple tests to a level. On the flipside....Should Bears regain control of 8.5k, and hold it, that 20ma around 7.8k or so becomes the immediate target. If Bears regain the 20ma, the 100ma/66% level becomes the next likely showdown level, around that 6.7-7k area.
Personally, I would like to see the latter occur. I think it'd be healthier in the long-term Bullish narrative. So long as Bulls manage to hold the 200ma/75% level, long term Bullish outlooks have merit. We'd be printing a HL
I know everyone is super Bullish, and I'll get attacked for this, but don't forget that drop from "E" to "H"....it was absolutely SAVAGE. Yes, we've had a great run up from 3.8k, absolutely 100% Literally, plus some. But slice it any way you like, they took $6700 from you, and gave you back $5k so far.....I'm glad (long term spot Bull in me) to have the 5k back as well, believe me...but we're not out of the woods yet.
I'm torn....I won't lie. I want this to regain 10.5k. I want this to be the next 2017 Run up. Bring on Alt season etc etc etc. If it is, BTC will prove it. We'll begin seeing HH and HL. Until then I see a Broadening Wedge style formation to the downside. Hold 8.5k/20ma for a bit, and we can talk.
As always, practice solid risk management, good luck, and have fun!
