Hypothesis: The week following the opening of a new quarterly contract signals sentiment for the quarter and therefore price direction.
(Null hypothesis: The week following the opening of a new quarterly contract has no effect on price direction. No way to truly test this without a control of some kind.)
I think the reversal in June was quashed due to the blockchain size FUD, ie an issue with the fundamentals of Bitcoin . Had that not occurred, price would have likely broke the $300 ceiling much sooner than the end of October. Currently, the debate continues to be an open question with no clear resolution.
Because of the limited data stored on TradingView, I only have 4 data points, but I believe OKC quarterly contracts only began around August 2014 anyway.
Some scenarios to consider
Decision week has a:
Higher Close = continuation for the quarter
Flat Close = reversal, such as what occurred in September 2015
Lower Close = unlikely to happen if we are truly in a bull market, but would also signal a reversal
There is also a giant cup which has formed on the since the last high at $540, the handle should form throughout the week and then finish higher, likely around settlement. The target would be ~$580 to complete that pattern, likely between 12/18-12/25.
Get the vs spot indicator here http://pastebin.com/BjwKyeuc