20k.

good morning,

after further observing price action over these last few days, something doesn't feel right.

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was browsing through a ton of peoples ideas, and everyone seems to have arrows pointing upwards.
people are under the impression that we're in a phase of accumulation, similar to last summer - so i have to make a bearish argument against the majority.

i believe btc is playing out a massive wyckoff distribution phase
i think we're in phase D right now, which marks a massive sign of weakness in the market.

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btc continues to backtest the 21 monthly ema for the third month in a row, with no real signs of strength.
the last time this happened was in 2018, and we all know what followed after.
a support can only hold for so long before it breaks,
and the next support sits in the low 20k range.

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to conclude, i think btc will see a sharp 50% decline over the next few months to flush out the last of the moonbois.
only then will we run to 200k.
i remain to be:
short term bearish
midterm bearish
long term very bullish.

ps. if it comes back up to the top of my local triangle, i'll short it.
cash till then.

✌